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Old 08-12-2011, 12:49 PM   #121
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Re: Thread about video poker

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Originally Posted by Poker is Rigged View Post
Is there a such thing as +EV and high stakes?

I think I heard Shackleford say in a video that +EV VP machines are very low stakes, like 50 cents or so might be the highest stakes. Thinking about it, but if this is true then I'm not gonna waste my time.
to get +EV on highstakes machines, you need some sort of promotion like going on point multiplier days or be playing a progressive machine where the progressive has grown to an amount large enough to swing it into your favor.
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Old 08-12-2011, 05:27 PM   #122
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Re: Thread about video poker

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Originally Posted by tringlomane View Post
No, it's generally not +EV in terms of casinos offering >100% return machines. They may exist in Vegas, but they sure as hell don't exist anywhere else. It is always better to play 4 lines than 1 if you play the game "correctly", however. For example, at 9/6 JoB, the machine returns 99.79% in Multi-Strike mode while normal JoB returns 99.54%. In my area, St. Louis, you probably can't find a quarter machine to pay better than 8/5 though. And doesn't help when now you have to wager 4 times as much while your variance roughly quadruples between the two game formats. So in terms of money, the variance is about a 16-fold difference between a quarter 4-line MultiStrike machine vs. a single line quarter JoB machine.

Also this is a game many people will make significant errors in playing without realizing strategy adjustments. In a JoB game, you should toss a small pair in favor of 2 high cards on either Level 1 or 2. Also never hold OESDs on Level 1 with no high cards; the punishment for failing to make the next level is far too great. A full strategy for this game is shown by the link below.

http://wizardofodds.com/multistrike/appendix2.html
Yeah, sorry. When I meant it was +ev, it has a better return than the regular FP machines.
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Old 08-12-2011, 08:43 PM   #123
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Re: Thread about video poker

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Originally Posted by n2p View Post
I have the winpoker app for iphone that somebody here recommended. I like that it gives tips but is there one where I can adjust the payout tables and the correct strategy for that?
Yea..the iphone and iPad app that Bandit recommended allows you to change all that and more..

Video Poker + Perfect Play Trainer
http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/video...420985787?mt=8

You can change the pay tables to match the machine you play on, and the trainer will automatically calculate the optimal perfect play.

I play a lot at the Indian Reservations, and they dont have 9/6 JoB. So there is no use training for 9/6 when i dont play on 9/6. I took a picture of the pay table at the reservation, and entered it into the app.

Its pretty funny, if you set Jacks or Better to pay out 100. The trainer advises you on some nifty moves to shoot for Jacks or Better which pays (in my fantasy paytable) more than Straights! haha. funny.

A cool feature the app has, allows you to enter in 5 cards, and it will instantly tell you the most optimal play. I carry my iPhone to the casino, and when I get stuck, I look to the advice of my iPhone. Its like having the Wizard of Odds sitting next to you.

The trainer is pretty amazing, and it records how many perfect plays you have in a row. My top is 97 perfect plays in a row. I always screw up.
The wifey has 75 perfect plays in a row. We like to compete.

Its like a game within the game. very fun.

Go to the link and read the description, its full blown feature rich.

Bandit, whats your perfect play count in Video Poker + Perfect Play Trainer?
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Old 08-13-2011, 04:06 AM   #124
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215. I find myself yelling "dammit" after every warning sound lol.

However there are some inaccuracies with its hand analysis. For example if you are deciding between holding a king vs suited king and ten, standard play is hold KT. If you have to discard a 9 and flush penalty, hold only the king. Using the analyzer for KsTs5s7h4d it will tell you to hold the king only, which is wrong.

Now when you're going for perfect play in-game, it WILL make that annoying sound when you hold only the king. I haven't gotten around to bringing this to the attention of the developer.

I have winpoker and video poker+perfect trainer. You can change paytables on both and also save a user defined paytable. However video poker has much nicer graphics. Winpoker hasn't been updated in a year but it's hand analysis is more accurate and has a ton more games including deuces wild, of which I'm learning the NSUD variant.
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Old 08-13-2011, 04:14 PM   #125
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Re: Thread about video poker

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Originally Posted by bandit8402 View Post
I might have to find another hobby or completely change my way of thinking like an advantage VP player. Here are my stats since I started:

Total Buy In: 3,675.75
Total Cash Out: 1,480.75
Total Coin In: 48,485.00
Total ROI: 95.47%
Estimated Hands: 38788

Net Win/Loss: -2,195.00
Exp. Win/Loss: -223.03
Brutal. Now you've went through almost a whole royal cycle without hitting one. That will still happen with a probability of 1/e = 36.79%.

But even without the royal, you're still running 2% below the expectation of the machine's return without a royal. This latter unluckiness is much worse as the standard deviation among for a sample of 38,788 hands without a royal is only 379 bets. Even after deducting a Royal Flush expectation, you're still down 946 bets from what is expected (i.e. a 97.56% return). So if we use the normal "bell-curve" approximation (this isn't a terrible estimate when you toss out the royal), you are still running 2.5 standard deviations below the mean for results that don't include a royal. This will happen about 1 in 161 trials. Note this number has been determined by you solely playing single line JoB. I read that you played triple line JoB for awhile, this will happen a bit more frequently playing triple line obviously.

And for both of these to happen so you can run at 95.5% for this long of a stretch: (0.3679)/161 = 1 in 438. Obviously you can't claim anything is rigged, but video poker is seriously hating you right now.
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Old 08-13-2011, 10:19 PM   #126
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Re: Thread about video poker

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Originally Posted by flydog View Post
Yea..the iphone and iPad app that Bandit recommended allows you to change all that and more..

Video Poker + Perfect Play Trainer
http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/video...420985787?mt=8

You can change the pay tables to match the machine you play on, and the trainer will automatically calculate the optimal perfect play.

I play a lot at the Indian Reservations, and they dont have 9/6 JoB. So there is no use training for 9/6 when i dont play on 9/6. I took a picture of the pay table at the reservation, and entered it into the app.

Its pretty funny, if you set Jacks or Better to pay out 100. The trainer advises you on some nifty moves to shoot for Jacks or Better which pays (in my fantasy paytable) more than Straights! haha. funny.

A cool feature the app has, allows you to enter in 5 cards, and it will instantly tell you the most optimal play. I carry my iPhone to the casino, and when I get stuck, I look to the advice of my iPhone. Its like having the Wizard of Odds sitting next to you.

The trainer is pretty amazing, and it records how many perfect plays you have in a row. My top is 97 perfect plays in a row. I always screw up.
The wifey has 75 perfect plays in a row. We like to compete.

Its like a game within the game. very fun.

Go to the link and read the description, its full blown feature rich.

Bandit, whats your perfect play count in Video Poker + Perfect Play Trainer?
This seems to be just what I was looking for. Thanks!
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Old 08-14-2011, 12:18 PM   #127
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Binked the cash drawing at South Point last night. I didn't get the grand prize but got 1k as the consolation. Emergency bankroll infusion complete!
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Old 08-14-2011, 12:30 PM   #128
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tringlomane View Post
Brutal. Now you've went through almost a whole royal cycle without hitting one. That will still happen with a probability of 1/e = 36.79%.

But even without the royal, you're still running 2% below the expectation of the machine's return without a royal. This latter unluckiness is much worse as the standard deviation among for a sample of 38,788 hands without a royal is only 379 bets. Even after deducting a Royal Flush expectation, you're still down 946 bets from what is expected (i.e. a 97.56% return). So if we use the normal "bell-curve" approximation (this isn't a terrible estimate when you toss out the royal), you are still running 2.5 standard deviations below the mean for results that don't include a royal. This will happen about 1 in 161 trials. Note this number has been determined by you solely playing single line JoB. I read that you played triple line JoB for awhile, this will happen a bit more frequently playing triple line obviously.

And for both of these to happen so you can run at 95.5% for this long of a stretch: (0.3679)/161 = 1 in 438. Obviously you can't claim anything is rigged, but video poker is seriously hating you right now.
Thanks for the analysis. I finally had a royal last night at the palms but it was on a penny 50 line. Held 4 to the royal and I would've been steaming if it didn't hit. Not sure if it counts or not but I'm just glad to finally get one!
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Old 08-14-2011, 11:32 PM   #129
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Re: Thread about video poker

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Originally Posted by bandit8402 View Post
I finally had a royal last night at the palms but it was on a penny 50 line. Not sure if it counts or not but I'm just glad to finally get one!
It counts, but this is why I'm down a decent amt in video poker too, The only royal I've hit in a casino was also on a penny machine.
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Old 08-16-2011, 12:23 AM   #130
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Re: Thread about video poker

played on 8/5 JOB tonight. I was daydreaming while playing that I would finally bink a royal and get to come on here and finally say I got one. Sad to say I did not.

My question however is as follows. If you play JOB 8/5 the payout is 97.3 with perfect play. Tonight I was using my phone to make sure I had perfect play but one of the times I went to hit a button on my phone but my brain failed and I hit redraw without holding anything. My original board was K :spades: K:hearts: J:hearts: 10:hearts: 2:hearts: I was not sure if I should hold the 3 to a royal, 4 to a flush, or winning kings. When I held nothing I got Quads. Since I played perfect except for one spin but that one spin was a winner does this now change my expected payout on the machine. This is assuming that every other hand I played was perfect.
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Old 08-16-2011, 12:56 AM   #131
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Re: Thread about video poker

I have made missholds before and hit hands...

Ive held just a 9 rather than a pair of 9's and got a straight or a flush (whould have been nothing if I held the pair).

you never know, but your chances of winning in the long run are better if you hold the "correct" hold than always going for the big win...

You could go for the big win... I have broken pairs of aces playing DDB to hit a royal... I have broken 2 pairs and full houses to get quads...

There is no rule book, but mathematical suggestions towards an expected return playing a certain way...
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Old 08-16-2011, 01:31 AM   #132
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Re: Thread about video poker

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Originally Posted by Barbiaux View Post
My question however is as follows. If you play JOB 8/5 the payout is 97.3 with perfect play. Tonight I was using my phone to make sure I had perfect play but one of the times I went to hit a button on my phone but my brain failed and I hit redraw without holding anything.
A question for you: Many slot machines (mostly $1 denom and up) have huge signs above them advertising a return of 97.4%. When you can get that return with no chance of misplaying a hand as well as (usually) increased slot club benefits from playing slots rather than vp, why in the world would one choose to play a vp machine with a return of 97.3%?

BTW, using your phone as a strategy aid could easily be interpreted as using an illegal device. Whether that would be upheld or not in court, defending yourself against the accusation could prove expensive and time-consuming.
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Old 08-16-2011, 01:38 AM   #133
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Re: Thread about video poker

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Originally Posted by Barbiaux View Post
played on 8/5 JOB tonight. I was daydreaming while playing that I would finally bink a royal and get to come on here and finally say I got one. Sad to say I did not.

My question however is as follows. If you play JOB 8/5 the payout is 97.3 with perfect play. Tonight I was using my phone to make sure I had perfect play but one of the times I went to hit a button on my phone but my brain failed and I hit redraw without holding anything. My original board was K :spades: K:hearts: J:hearts: 10:hearts: 2:hearts: I was not sure if I should hold the 3 to a royal, 4 to a flush, or winning kings. When I held nothing I got Quads. Since I played perfect except for one spin but that one spin was a winner does this now change my expected payout on the machine. This is assuming that every other hand I played was perfect.
Generally at JoB just to remind people:

High Pair > 3 to RF > 4 to regular flush >>> tossing everything.

Yes this changes your expected payout for the worse, as any mistake will. This even includes if your mistake leads to a bigger winning hand because typically in analysis, we will consider the average return of the mistake that you make, and adjust the payout accordingly.

Let's consider the hand:

In this example for a 5 credit bet:
Correct play (holding high pair) returns 7.6318 credits on average:
Accidentally throwing everything for this given hand returns 1.5541 credits on average:

Cost of Error on average: 6.0777 credits

Fortunately for you, you gained 120 credits more than a pair of kings would, but in terms of analysis, this lucky hit is already included in the -6.0777 credit result.

To generally calculate return with errors we use this formula:
(Perfect Play return in coins - Value lost by errors in coins) / Total Coin in


Assuming no other mistakes are made, then the expected return of your machine becomes:

Expected return with Error = [N*(5 credits)*(0.972984) - 6.0777]/(5 credits)*N

Here N = number of hands played

So if you played 100 hands: 96.08%
250 hands: 96.81%
500 hands: 97.06%
1000 hands: 97.18%

As far as the phone device is concerned, Tom, I highly doubt the casino would care you used it on a machine that returns 97.3% of your money with perfect play. I could be wrong on this though. Also if you're using the phone hand analyzer enough to get caught, you are too rusty at video poker and need to practice for free at home more.
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Old 08-16-2011, 07:25 PM   #134
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Re: Thread about video poker

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Originally Posted by tringlomane View Post


Expected return with Error = [N*(5 credits)*(0.972984) - 6.0777]/(5 credits)*N

Here N = number of hands played

So if you played 100 hands: 96.08%
250 hands: 96.81%
500 hands: 97.06%
1000 hands: 97.18%

As far as the phone device is concerned, Tom, I highly doubt the casino would care you used it on a machine that returns 97.3% of your money with perfect play. I could be wrong on this though. Also if you're using the phone hand analyzer enough to get caught, you are too rusty at video poker and need to practice for free at home more.
For some reason I thought it would have a positive return on EV since it was only one hand.

I would LOVE to play a better EV machine but this is the best we are going to get in PA. Our slots only pay back an average on 90%. There may be some higher paying ones in the room but they surely don't point that out to people.

As for my phone app I only used it a handful of times so I don't think they would catch on to what I was doing and I doubt they would care.
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Old 08-16-2011, 10:35 PM   #135
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Re: Thread about video poker

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Originally Posted by Barbiaux View Post
For some reason I thought it would have a positive return on EV since it was only one hand.
Well, it depends on how you consider the error you made. If you are considering the actual result given to you due to your error, then yes the return on your machine went up because of your error since you got lucky and hit quads. This will occasionally happen due to fortunate draws, but from a general error analysis standpoint, we want to consider the average change in return due to errors. Otherwise you could argue that you should just ditch everything every time by this one example! If you actually would do that on most video JoB machines, you would get back 31% of your bet in this example.

I say most machines because in certain jurisdictions (Alabama is an example), true video poker is illegal and the outcome is predetermined already via bingo draw or other method. So if a machine like that determined you were supposed to make two pair after the draw, tossing everything would give you two pair back every time, or compensate you some other way. Most of these machines are listed as 9/6, but since outcomes are not determined by poker cards, the machine could return whatever it is set to return. While gambling in Alabama, I often held all 5 cards because strategy is pointless, and I could have a magical "genie" occasionally change my cards to their expected result.
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