300k is pretty nuts but when we are talking about 1/40,000 opportunities its not completely out of the realm. 200k i've seen many times.

Can anyone rec some (free) training apps to improve my play? Preferably for android

I don't think there is any android training software yet. The guys I know who can do it say they don't think there is any money in developing it yet.

But you can go online to Wolf Video Poker and download Frugal Video Poker for free. Frugal was introduced in 2000 and was the first software that had a strategy component. You can practice any game on it.

Wolf Video Poker is a modernized version of Frugal with a lot more bells and whistles on it. But Frugal is still good....and its free.

Winpoker doesn't have a strategy component. The knock on Video Poker for Winners is you can't fully analyze progressives. You can't punch in an arbitrary number like an 8640 coin royal. You have to use rounded numbers like 4000, 6000, 8000, etc.

Wolf Video Poker is the best video poker software.

you're probably overestimating how many hands you played, 300k run without a royal will happen about once in 2,000 trials

I have a friend who travels regularly to Las Vegas for years. Besides live poker he loves to play videopoker. Now, here comes what I really call variance:

Number of trips: 7
Played VP hands: 450,000
Hit royal flushes: 28

The probability of this very rare happening is 0.0005 %, which is about six times less probable, than hitting not one royal flush at all.

Alpha is the 2,000 trials based on a math formula or did u run 2,000 computer simulations and saw this happen? tks.

It's math. Take hitting a Royal as 1/40000.
Not hitting a Royal is 39999/40000.
Not hitting a Royal in 300k hands is (39999/40000)^300k which is around 1/2000.

So one more Vegas trip under my belt and still no royal. Was up on VP this trip due to several 4oak, 4 aces and a nice 4x2 with ace at the airport just now. Craps, on the other hand, was not as good to me.

VP Pocket from videopoker.com.

I have a simple EV question...

If you're playing JoB and have 3 to a royal with a pair of Q's do you go for the royal or keep the pair?

Keep the pair

Sent from my SGH-M919 using 2+2 Forums

^^ yup

Depends.

Finally. The correct answer.

My first thought was 10-J-Q-Q-X would make you go for the royal because you have a better chance at a straight or straight flush... (8-9 or 9-k)

But then I thought that if you have A-Q-Q-J--x you'd be better off going for the royal because you have a better chance of at least getting a pair of Jacks or better..

Which of the above is correct? (I'm guessing the first one, but I'm not basing it on math, just a hunch.)

A high pair has a 1.53 ev and a 3 to a royal has a 1.28 ev so really it isn't even close. Even considering penalty cards it is still a no brainer to keep the high pair.

It all depends upon the paytable. Seems every responder prior to Ricky Steve assumed a 9/6 JOB non-progressive game, so holding the paying pair would be correct--assuming no SF draw.

With progressives it becomes more complicated as it depends upon the RF amount and which three potential RF cards are in the deal.

That is all very true. I was assuming just a straight 8/5 or 9/6 JOB with no progressive.

As was I. Assumed a full pay vanilla situation.

Can you please explain to me why you're using the math you're using. I dabble in video poker, but I'm a professional poker player and just intuitively, 1/2000 doesn't make sense. I don't usually deal with these big numbers though, so I might be wrong.

This is how my poker brain is processing the information. Instead of saying 1 out of 40,000 hands (like the royal). I think of say hitting a flush draw on the river which is ~ 1 out of 5 hands.

300k hands/40k average is about a 7.5 to 1 ratio. That same ratio in missed flush draws would be missing ~37 consecutive flush draws. Hmm......now that I think about it, missing 37 consecutive flush draws on the river would be crazy unlikely.

Maybe it is 2,000 to 1. FML.....I can't believe how have unlucky I've been

Actually if you assume 1/5 chance of hitting the flush draw, missing 36 in a row would be 1 in 2000.

(4/5)^36 ~ 0.0005

So yeah it still checks out. A statistical outlier to be sure, but within the realm of possibility.

More generally:

p = probability of event occurring
1-p = probability of event not occurring
n = number of hands

Probability of event not occurring over n hands is (1-p)^n

I am very good with math and probability and such... How do you determine "fringe" benefits of a play? I can determine that NSUD is 99.7 return, I can determine how much cash/comps I will get, and I can calculate hourly assuming I am on a slow machine and only doing 800-1000 hands per hour. But how so you calculate things such as free play offers in the mail, drawing entries (I can determine how many I will produce, but not what they are worth).

I can play FPDW .25 at over 1000 hands per hour in most places, but that is only going to do 10$/hr at best. with little to no bouceback freeplay. I believe the next step up from this would be $1 level NSUD (or less if there is a 5-100 play option). But how do you know what 40000 (or more) coin in per month will generate in "offers"?

trial and error?