Any vp software program will let you change the paytables. Just reduce all pays subject to the mandatory tax by 5%, and it will spit out your actual rate of return for that particular game.

He said tax is 5%. You're expected to hit 1 Royal, so there's $200. And you're expected to hit 2.5 4Aw/234, so there's $250.

Yes total tax is a lot more due to Federal but you can deduct losses against that. His state must have a law that prohibits loss deduction (many do).

Comes out to 99.755%

My bad you are right. I was thinking he had to pay federal taxes. I will blame it on using my phone to read.

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Thanks all. I suppose 99.755% is an acceptable return. I thought it would be have been considerably less after taxes. It's been a while since I've played any vp. Can anyone recommend a good software for practice? I purchased one a while ago that I downloaded on my computer, but I don't have it any more. I should probably browse through this thread for more info. One last question...

I know that no bankroll is large enough given -EV. But is there any way to calculate how much is needed to run $200k through a $1 machine ($5 a spin)? I've heard DDB is one of the higher variance games and I don't want to kid myself. If I'm going to quit at $200k, would I be better off playing something less volatile like JoB? I just have no idea how big of a bankroll I'll need before I can expect to reach an expectation of -2.45%. I really appreciate the help. Thanks.

Thats a question for tring

Why are you so content on 200k?

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$200k playthrough probably gets him up to a desired tier at his casino. It's not a Caesars property though, as that amount doesn't fall at a threshold.

Running 200k through a vp machine will earn me the points I need to achieve top tier status. I figure the perks I will get (in addition to the comp $) is worth the cost of losing $500 or so. However, I don't want to be naive. I also realize that short term variance can be brutal. It's likely that $200k (40,000 spins) will not be enough to reach long term expectation (EV= -$490). I'm guessing I could easily find myself stuck +$10k or more. But how much more is the question?

Btw- I did find my vp software (winpoker). I'm not sure I completely trust the simulations though. I remember when I was playing JoB, I always did better on the software than real life. Would appreciate comments on this as well. Thanks.

Yeah I figured that. Just curious if he is going to be smart about getting the points like going on a drawing night or multi point days.

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Correct. This is a Penn National Gaming property. They require $200k of play every 6 months. Still quite a bit lower than Caesars if I recall.

Google "Dunbar's Risk Analyzer". I'm not sure it's still available, but if it is, it's great for questions like this.

The paytable you listed pays back 98.98, not 99.98. I would be very surprised if a Penn Gaming property had 10/6 DDB. 9/6 DDB is pretty common, however. If you think it's a good idea to play 9/6 DDB single line dollars for 40 hours, I would take a good long hard look at your priorities.

The variance is just as important as the EV. You should lose about 2k in EV but you may lose 10k+. I would guess that 3SD would be in the 20k range, but who knows. I can think of several plays that are probably worth about $50 to $100 a hour but involve playing something like 10 play DDB ult x, or 10 play STP DDB. It's essentially gambling with a very slight tailwind, any sort of mistake can wipe out a huge chunk of your EV and you can go a year without that big hit that brings you back to normal. Factor in taxes and bankroll growth and these plays are just marginal. I played $500k on 9/6 DDB and lost 17k with 1.75% cashback included. In order to play a high variance game successfully you really need a big edge or a large bankroll. 9/6 JOB STP multi line is about where I draw the line in my part of the country, although someone on the west coast would probably have to consider ultx DDB and double STP bonus poker.

Is anyone playing vp for money online? any good sites with good paytables?

Thanks

Is this worth playing JOB with this table

Thanks

99.5%, and for the next time, google is your friend.

tongni, thanks for this! You're right it's 98.98, not 99.98. And yeah... Given the info you just provided, it's not worth the variance. Thanks for simplifying my decision.

Enjoying the thread and hoping it continues. Been playing VP off and on again thru my years in vegas, but recently (last 6 months or so) studied it and went from a pure recreational "gee fun" kind of player to a more "serious recreational" player looking for games with an edge.

I kind of want to share some of my experience and knowledge to help others because I see people playing on such low return games like 8/5 DDB, JOB, or ugly deuces (98.1%) or worse. My advise is have fun with them, but don't take them seriously. You get the lucky hit, enjoy it, but don't expect to play the game to make steady money or make profit. Mathematically it won't happen. Sounds simple but many people, including me, had to learn the hard way. Don't learn the hard way.

About expected returns on VP games:
Some knowledgable VP player told me expected returns for games such as 9/6 jacks or better (99.54%), 9/6 DDB (98.9%), and FPDW (100.76%) are like bell curves. Each session you play is like flipping a coin and you will be on one side of the bell curve or the other. The games with higher variance are wider curves, games with lower variance are narrower curves. And long time (undefined) play will closely mirror the expected return of the given game (undefined). He also told me that expected return is highly theoritical.

My favorite games before finally a lightbulb clicked on and realized that perfect play on games less than 100% meant losing, was 8/5 BP (99.1%) and 9/6 DDB (98.9%). Since moving on to FPDW (100.76%) and DB (100.16%) I have steadily increased my bankroll which has been anything but steady before, imagine that. Before those games, I took wild swings and usually came out the losing end long term. I had great hits, but not enough to weather the stormy sessions.
If anybody else in Vegas is playing these over 100% games at stations or another property, I'd like to know what slot comp percentage we make off the games. I imagine it's kind of lousy. One station I play at gives 12 dollars in as one point for these games.
BANKROLL
Always an interesting issue and is there really an ideal perfect bankroll out there besides infinite? I have a "replenishing" bankroll due to being employed so that always helps. But it seems to me Dancer's 3 to 5 royal rule seems practical, but by no means absolute. 3 royal for lower variance games such as JOB or DW, 5 royals for games like DDB, DB, LD, TDB. And even more for multi-line games, ultimate X, progressives, and so forth.
Then, there is session bankroll. How much should one bring to one session. Actually this can be calculated but I don't have Dancer's software. For me personally, I've been playing .25 cent one line FPDW (100.76%) for about 6 months now, about 15-25 sessions a month, and calculated a bankroll of 100 dollars per hour of play seems to work for me. If I am going to play 3 hours, I'll have 300 dollars, 4 hours, 400 dollars, 2 hours 200 dollars, for one session of play for single line quarter FPDW. I've rarely gone busto using this, but do not know the mathematical percentages, just emperical evidence of results over many sessions of play. I'd love to see some statistics for session bankroll is someone is so inclined for this game assuming playing optimally.

Lastly I haven't read anybody mentioning scouting. I've found VPfree is a great resource, but is not wholly accurate and not updated all the time. On a trip to Casablanca casino in Mesquite, VP free wasn't accurate. And in Vegas, I notice not accurate either and many games (and good progressives) not on there. I'd like to play some good progressive dollar games but won't touch them without a juicy bankroll, same with quarters. I stick pretty much to the northside (Texas, Fiesta, Santa Fe, Aliante) and found some good ones but not sure if it's smart to just sort of "give the answer" instead of having people do the work to 'look up the answer". Anyway, keep the thread going

Congrats Barbiaux!! About time you hit one!


More precise answers really depend on hands not hours. If you play 1000 hands/hr, you'll need more bankroll for an hour vs. someone playing 500 hands/hr.

Dumb question but just want to clarify 1%ror bankroll is the same no matter how fast you play assuming you're playing correct? tks.

If the RoR calculation is for play that is unlimited, then yeah, your speed doesn't matter. But he was talking about session bankrolls, or limited amounts of play in any given day. In that case, the number of hands played in the session is also an important variable.

yes so is 99.5% worth playing online. Or do you guys play better payouts online?

You can answer your own question. For most logical people 99.5% is better than 98% but not better than 101%.

(My question was basically what was a good session bankroll for FPDW, and I suppose, other games as well. I found for single line .25 FPDW $100 per hour pretty much guaranteed no busting. If I planned to play, say, 3 hours, would have $300. But looking for a more mathematical answer).
For FPDW (and NSUD), I play about 950 hands an hr. Double bonus poker about 800 per hour, Jacks or Better about 800 per hour. I haven't bothered analyzing my hands per hour for DDB or TDB, but I'm sure it's about the same.
I did run across an appendix from wizard of odds that analyzes risk of ruin vs bankroll size. The problem is that it assumes infinite period of time with no terminating event, tables the wizard said is best used for a player using a bankroll for an infinite period of play. I was hoping for a session play answer besides the obvious, "it depends."


http://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/appendix/1/

On another note, I always like to do something stupid after a big win and made the mistake of playing dream card deuces .25c triple play. Don't play dream card deuces (98.0% and highly variant). Dumped about 40% of a 2k royal I hit a few days ago until admitting defeat. Could of been worse.

Is this online vp for non americans only? tks

It is on the ipokernetwork so I believe it is for non americans. You can try playing at bovada or bodog in the USA and they have the same pay table.

but unregulated so just because it says 9/6 doesnt mean they aren't pre setting their cards like bingo poker