Quote:
Originally Posted by Lestat
I'm wondering if someone really knowledgeable can help me out...
My casino has a DDB machine that supposedly returns 99.98% (1,1,3,4,6,9,50,80,160,160,400,50,800) with perfect strategy. I'm fine taking on this -EV, since I'd be playing mainly for comps and status. The problem is, the state taxes a flat 5% on all jackpots over $1200, which you can NOT write off losses against! What I need to figure out is how many +$1200 jackpots can I expect over 40K spins playing a $1 machine. I'm trying to figure out what it figures to cost me to run $200k through this machine. So EV from play would be -$40 and taxes would be ?? Can anyone help me? Thanks.
The paytable you listed pays back 98.98, not 99.98. I would be very surprised if a Penn Gaming property had 10/6 DDB. 9/6 DDB is pretty common, however. If you think it's a good idea to play 9/6 DDB single line dollars for 40 hours, I would take a good long hard look at your priorities.
The variance is just as important as the EV. You should lose about 2k in EV but you may lose 10k+. I would guess that 3SD would be in the 20k range, but who knows. I can think of several plays that are probably worth about $50 to $100 a hour but involve playing something like 10 play DDB ult x, or 10 play STP DDB. It's essentially gambling with a very slight tailwind, any sort of mistake can wipe out a huge chunk of your EV and you can go a year without that big hit that brings you back to normal. Factor in taxes and bankroll growth and these plays are just marginal. I played $500k on 9/6 DDB and lost 17k with 1.75% cashback included. In order to play a high variance game successfully you really need a big edge or a large bankroll. 9/6 JOB STP multi line is about where I draw the line in my part of the country, although someone on the west coast would probably have to consider ultx DDB and double STP bonus poker.
Last edited by tongni; 09-08-2013 at 10:54 PM.