It's at the Muckleshoot in WA (Indian casino)

I didn't realize the -ev in this game. They only offer this, double bonus with matching card, and a double bonus progressive with matching card. I enjoy playing VP but if the odds are as you say I should find another place? I was assuming at least a 97-98% with me making some crappy plays every now and then.

How can you ever know which is which? Is it published in the casino or on the machine? We play in a lot of states and I always wonder if I am playing a bad machine. Also if this is a class 2 machine, are all machines in the casino the same?

Well anything that has a "match card" or a bingo card somewhere on the machine is one sign. Another sign is, if you throw away a dealt winner, you always get that amount back (or more) on the draw or with the help of the match card feature. Holding all 5 cards of complete garbage and occasionally receiving wins is another sign.

Class II machines are more common among Indian Gaming, but not all Indian casinos are Class II. All casinos in WA are Class II though.

http://www.americancasinoguide.com/c...n-casinos.html

The nearest casino with guaranteed Class III (video poker based on a true deck of cards) with good paybacks is probably Reno, NV. There may be some California casinos with decent class III machines as well. They are mixed in California.

Long story short, if you can't find the casino listed on the site below, their video poker probably isn't worth playing.

http://www.vpfree2.com/

Washington is a turrible state for poker..... I can't even register on Bodog (or whatever the new place is called). I knew I should have gone to school in Vegas lol.

My question is how can the casinos let full pay machines keep going? They must know more then us math/poker/stats nerds so clearly offering anything over 100% is a bad idea. Do they make enough from people who don't use advantage plays?

Also, I do have some free time coming up and don't mind traveling to play some (real) DDB. What's the closest casino near the airport I can swing by and play 100%+ DDB?

Eh, depending on the machine, yes, errors will still allow them to slightly profit on the machines. Much more of their profit comes from ~88-90% penny slots though and they probably don't care about their full-pay video poker results. Also with +EV machines denominations are limited to the lower ends, so you'll never make a lot off of them with perfect play.

Unfortunately, DDB is the worst game to play if you're looking to play +EV machines. The best available version of DDB is 10/6 which pays 100.07%. There are many casinos in Vegas that offer it (away from the Strip), but I dunno why you would want a casino that was near the airport. Do you really want to hit and run Vegas?

The most widely available +EV game in Vegas that is significantly +EV is full pay Deuces Wild (100.76%), I would personally consider learning that game as well if you want to play +EV video poker.

Ya I'm looking to change my game to dw. Its more fun from what I played online when I was learning optimal play. DDB was where my mind was at since that's all they offer at mucks.

I'm looking to hit and run anything but if they are leaving +EV on the table I gotta take advantage of it. Plus I enjoy playing VP, and if it pays me great. At the worst I don't mind breaking even for the free food and comps. I don't care to do "Vegas" stuff, just wanna jam VP and maybe a 1/2 nl game. I'm considering it a "business trip".

Really open ended question, but I've read alot about VP and whether it's possible to beat. What do people think, are these machines, with say "standard" comps, beatable?

Without getting to cute with the math, (read I am too dumb to do the work), it seems to me that eight million casino machines mean someone smarter than me decided these work for casinos, to the extent that you cannot win long term, no matter what you do. Or, am I wrong, do enough people play poorly enough that there is room for a few players to actual win with some idealized strategy.

what do people think of those 2 to 10x machines, that randomly and once in a while give you a multiplier, are they better than say a standard jacks or better. I love the idea of hitting a royal at 10x, but seems a long shot xs 10.

any thoughts welcome besides gfys. also, that picture makes me want to vomit. im generally a nice guy I hope, but I hate it when people hit near me particularly with the royal. i have hit 3 lifetime. I love VP but kind of feel a sucker, even though I know a thing or two I hope about playing corrrectly --- am I wasting my money at this game, that's what Id like to know- or is it worth putting forth some effort

I ran the DW auto play on wizard of odds (they are full pay I believe) and in about 5mil hands the return was 100.22%. If the Vegas VP machines pay out as posted it'd be +EV to grind it out. I'm curious about the comps too. Can you rake enough to eat decent? Most if not all of these FP machines are in cheap hotels (damn the stupid resort fee making it cost 2x tho) so I'm wondering about their rewards cards. I'm looking to book a few nights at some of these casino/hotels with FPDW.

In most locations, they are not able to be beat with "standard" comps. Las Vegas is one exception because full-pay deuces wild (100.76% return) exists for quarters. But your long-term hourly for that is roughly minimum wage and the bankroll needed for a low risk of ruin is fairly significant. Remember, ~2% of your overall return comes from Royal Flushes, so it's always a rough ride unless you hit one.

Link to Risk of Ruin Data:
http://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/appendix/1/

Video Poker is generally profitable for casinos because 99% of video poker machines across the country are -EV machines even with flawless strategy. The best paying video poker machine in my area (St. Louis) pays back 99.8% with flawless play. So for every $1000 wagered, I would expect to lose at least $2 by playing it on average (even more since I would make occasional mistakes).

What do I think about Super Times Pay? I LOVE it! It's what has got me back into video poker. But if you're looking for the best possible machine, should you play it? Not usually. Basically Super Times Pay (or Double Super Times Pay) machines work like this: Is the base paytable the same or better on the Super Times Pay machine than all the other regular VP machines? If yes, then play Super Times Pay. If it is a lower base paytable than regular VP, then play regular VP. In most casinos STP machines have lower base tables.

For example, 9/6 Jacks or Better pays 99.54%, but 9/6 Jacks or Better with Super Times Pay pays 99.82% (6 credit wager obviously). More likely though, you could find a 9/6 JoB, but only an 8/5 JoB with STP. 8/5 JoB with STP only pays 97.56%.

Unfortunately, I don't live in Vegas so I can't personally vouch for how much comps are given on FPDW. Generally though, they are quite restrictive. They are usually not valid machines for any special promotional days, and in some places, they may not be valid for any comps at all. Other forums that are more devoted to video poker may be of more help here.

Your computer must be better than mine. I tried this too, and it took forever to play 51,784 hands on autoplay. I played that number because I ran out of credits (99.61% return). I don't think I hit a Royal, fwiw.

The paytable is FPDW (100.76%) though.

I let it ride some more because I'm a sick degenerate (well I have 2 computers so it's been on for a few days) and I'm at 12million hands. I'm at about 100.8187%, which is above expectation. Started with the default 5 credit/play with 1000 credits and ended up at 521,800. It's nice to see full pay machines generating a return but even at 8000 hands/8 hours, It would still take you 1/3 of a year to play 1million hands. Hope the comps and rewards points even things out a bit.

There is a new machine at the casino, a Triple Trouble Poker (9/5 with matching card "payback" and a 3x credits for 3 hands freeroll). It's still a Class II, although since it's a nickel from 1 to 100 units it's a lot cheaper to play for 5 credits then DDB which is quarters. I know it's "rigged" but I play that for fun and rewards points.

dropped $200 last evening, well 150 of my own and comps. quad 7s, quad 3s, and 9s and a straight flush (the machines I play on pay horribly low for sf, most vid poker machines do imo, relative how hard they are to get, got those on triple play but no muliplier) anyways, my point is, until you hit the royal or aaa with a 2,3,4. you're having a losing session. garden variety quads which payt about $60 where I play are not enough to put you up and keep you up.

Yeah, too bad it's rigged too, if that paytable existed in Nevada, Missouri, Mississippi, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, etc... If the probability of the "devils" appearing is 1.6% as stated by the Wizard of Odds, then the return would be 99.93%.

The Wizard only found 7/5 in Nevada though, which pays 97.48%.

http://wizardofodds.com/games/video-...riple-trouble/

You pretty much described Double Double Bonus to a tee. Frequent hits of regular Quads just keep you afloat since quad Aces are worth 5.24% of the return and Quad 2s, 3s, and 4s are worth 5.37% of the return. So if you fail to hit either of these "premium quads", the game will suck away your money just like a penny slot. If you aren't playing 9/6 DDB or 10/6 DDB, I would try to find better games since it sounds like you're playing quarters. DDB usually has some of the worst paybacks in a lot of casinos.

Can you determine through simulations what the worst possible downswing you can go through for let say .25 fpdw? I understand that if you have a 15 royal bankroll with the minimum cash back comps you have zero risk of ruin just wondering if you can calculate the worst case scenario re: money lost(no. of royals down) if you're playing optimally. tks.

I'm not entirely clear on what you're wanting to know. Since you need roughly a 15 Royal bankroll to create a < 0.1% RoR, obviously you can have a 15 Royal downswing at least a small part of the time. For example running at a 95% return over 300k hands, would bust you, even with a 15 Royal bankroll. The odds of this happening are near zero though, obviously. To me, this IS the worst case scenario. If that happens to anyone (and it probably has before), I wouldn't blame them for considering video poker is rigged. If there is another question you're wanting to know about downswings in general, then try to rephrase it for me.

No simulations necessary to know that the worst case scenario is never getting a hand that pays anything ever. A positive probability of that but extremely close to zero.

The risk of ruin from Wizard of Odds on FPDW:

http://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/appendix/1/

Shows that with a 0.25%CB with 5123 bets will give you a 1% chance of ruin ($1280.75 at 25c per play)

I don't know how the no royals thing works but it does cut into your return quite a bit as these games are top heavy.

By the way, I'm looking at vp2free.com and seeing that El Cortez in Vegas has the highest returns on DDW (100.92%), but it's a non-TITO coin dropper. Does this mean I have to keep feeding it quarters, therefore reducing my time on the machine, or does it take bunches of quarters so I can keep playing til I cash out or go busto? If anyone knows let me know. I'm thinking about playing this, or take myself somewhere else for 100.76% FPDW.

Hopefully losing a 15 royal br wont happen to me but I guess the math is on my side.. I believe u have to keep feeding it quarters and the locals say that your fingers will become black...so bring some wetnaps or purell with you.

If you're playing a machine that is using actual coins, yeah, your hands will get dirty fairly quickly. Unless comps are better or it was your only option, I wouldn't play FPDW on a coin-operated machine. You'll have to get your Royals handpaid, and I personally would feel obligated to tip.

If your fingers get significantly dirty by playing a "ticket" machine, it's time to quit for the day, imo.

It probably won't happen, but I'm guessing your down by the way you have phrased it. Remember, if you are playing quarters, you have the option of moving down at least.

It will hold credits, and probably has a bill feeder, so playing this won't cut into hand rate too much except in a few significant scenarios. You hit the deuces for $500, or the Royal for $1175. That is likely too many quarters to pay out and will necessitate a hand pay. So unless you want to be one of those guys who doesn't tip, you might just be better off playing 100.76% FPDW that has TITO.

And there is another good reason to avoid "Downtown Deuces", risk-of-ruin. Your risk of ruin significantly goes up with "Downtown" Deuces Wild without a huge roll, because now 4 Deuces is worth double at $500, and the Royal is worth $1175.

Using this formula, http://blackjackforumonline.com/content/VPRoR.htm

And a 4000 unit bankroll ($5000), with no cashback (assuming this because these are +EV machines, and it's better to be conservative)

Risk-of-Ruin

El Cortez "Downtown Deuces": 24.6%
Full Pay Deuces (various locations): 7.3%

These are INFINITE RoR Calculations with a $5000 bankroll. Obviously if you take $5000 for and only play 25,000 hands over a weekend, then you would be less likely to lose the $5k over the 25k hands.

From the RoR results, I am definitely sacrificing the small amount of extra EV to avoid the coin-out machines and drastically lower my risk-of-ruin.

according to vpfree $50 = 1 point, 50 points = $1 cashback. Also where did you find the full pay machines at? every time i go there I can't find anything close (the poker room does have 9/5 JoB which is about 98.5%, but that's the best I can find here).

According to vpFree2, 9/6 JoB and "Not So Ugly Ducks" exists at the circular bar in the center of the Rome casino. Both games have to be at 50c credit level or higher.

http://www.vpfree2.com/casino/winstar-world-casino

won $350 overall last night, wish I could say it was some opitimal dueces wild play that got me there, but it was jacks or better and just plain luck, mostly quad aces twice, once with the kicker.... but here is the point, I do play Jacks or Better optimally, or close to it I think, ..I'll deviate to go for a Royal with a T, and it strikes me that you have to have unusually good luck to win. These are 9/6 machines mostly, anyway, like I say, there has got to be a reason that half of casino floors everywhere are dedicated to these machines. I played a x multiplier game for a while, but did't seem to get any hands multiplied, but that was fun, thinking I could make up to what, 10k on a royal... I love video poker, maybe a bit too much, but I love it, something about getting 4 of a kind makes the joy explode in my head, even if it's a crappy $60 hit on quad 8s or something, I just love it. I am going to study Dueces wild a bit, seems fun that there are two big hands to go for instead of one....and it interests me that places have plus EV games like El Cortez....allegedly...it's actuallly against the law to have a plus EV game in this state (colorado)

edit : another profitable hand was quad Tens on a three play machine, got them on the orignal bottom hand so it was 3x... but I was only playing 18 nickels at that time, not 5 quarters.

Yeah unfortunately other states also forbid +EV video poker, such as Indiana and Mississippi. My home state, Missouri, allows it, but it hasn't existed in about 4 years; the best game that currently exists in St. Louis is 99.8% Triple Bonus Poker Plus.

Were you really playing jacks or better when you point out you got quad Aces twice? In real Jacks or Better (JoB), all quads pay the same so quad aces are a boring 125 credits like everything else...haha I am assuming you were playing Double Double Bonus (DDB), the most popular video poker variant.

The problem with DDB is it is usually a -EV game to begin with and over 7% of the return is lumped into hitting 4 aces, a straight or a royal flush! So if you fail to get any of these hands in a session, the machine will behave similar to a machine that pays only 91.2%!

One bit of good news is that there is one 10/6 DDB in your state that pays 99.96% for quarters at Century Casino in Central City. Most machines are 9/6 and pay 98.98%. But nevertheless, you're still playing a game that loaded with big payouts. If you fail to hit big hands, you'll likely lose.

And these paybacks also assume you are playing optimally! I watch people play DDB all the time and a majority of them will have two pair with Jacks, Queens, or Kings, and they will throw away the lower pair to go for the quads. This is a BIG mistake! Another smaller mistake I occasionally see is people holding AK, AQ, AJ offsuit instead of only an Ace.

If you are looking to try Deuces, CO has a decent amount of options that pay better than 9/6 DDB. There are plenty of "Not So Ugly Ducks" (NSUD) machines, even for nickels! These machines return 99.73% with perfect play, and are less swingy than DDB. But there are some major changes vs. full-pay deuces strategy. These include: two pair > one pair, and 4 to a flush > pair.

To find better paying machines in your area, look here:
http://www.vpfree2.com/casinos/by-region/west.html

If you have all of a machines payouts handy in a "for 1" basis (Royal = 800 for 1), then this is a really powerful strategy maker.
http://wizardofodds.com/games/video-...gy/calculator/

tyty

my play gets me $14 every two weeks plus $5 every once in a while. I am acutally pretty proud of that stingyness, means the casino's computer doesnt think I am a sucker, I hope... I will study this, because If I can play plus EV (with comped $ factored in), well that's a better hobby than eating cheetos all day or something.. b/c I enjoy it.. thanks for the tips.