oh BTW I decided today that i hate video poker. I still have not hit a royal. Today I won $300 playing poker so I decided to put $200 in a .25 8/5 JOB and I only spun 1500 times before I was bust.

edit and yes I know playing 8/5 sucks but I still played.

Just out of curiosity, what did you expect to happen?

lol i would have liked to get a royal silly

or at least 3000 spins before busto.

150 hands per $20 sounds pretty good to me. I only average like 85 hands per $20 on the 8/5 prog, but I've already got 1 royal under my belt

You pretty much need to go downtown/off strip to get decent machines. These two machines I found in Dec. The 101.6% LDW at Fitzgerald's still exists (nickels only, upstairs, near bar) as does the 99.73% NSUD at Ellis Island for quarters (the first bank when you walk in the front door)

98.91% with max credits/perfect play This is the "LV Airport/Illinois Deuces" Paytable. Neither of these places use that paytable anymore...lol You can create the strategy at http://www.vpgenius.com/video-poker/deuces-wild.aspx

On My Vegas Trip this past weekend, I played this version of Deuces Wild for nickels at Casino Royale for 5 nickels a hand. Best nickel strip video poker I could find. It was good for getting comped drinks from big boobed waitresses. I was too lazy to go downtown/off strip where video poker actually pays well.

Yes, playing 8/5 sucks, but sometimes that's one's best option (other than not playing). Your expected loss if you fail to hit the Royal in the session is $88 for 1500 hands. If you're good in the live poker room, I would minimize the video poker play.

BTW, you're basically going to hate me now. I played at Flamingo on the day you made this "I hate VP" post. A penny Super Times Pay poker (6/5 Bonus - 97.1%)

Unfortunately I am poor and only played 6 lines for 36c a hand. Also I know playing 6/5 Bonus is a big losing proposition for more expensive stakes. The odds of dealing the ultimate 2-7 Triple Draw Lowball bluff hand: 1 in 649,740.



Payout: 4000 pennies x 6 = $240

Also got two dealt quads at Mirage on Friday in 250 hands, and drew a 4th Queen to QQQ at IP on Saturday at 7/5 Bonus with Super Times Pay (98.3%) (10x multiplier for 1250 nickels) and cashed out at $88.80.

Lost ~$200 playing live poker though. Overall I was $300 lighter in the pocket for 6 days, but a lot of that was food and dealer/drink tokes though.

Bodog and Bovada have the same return of 98.06% with max coins.

Source: http://www.videopokertrainer.org/deuces-wild.php

800/200/25/15/9/4/4/3/2/1 Deuces Wild pays 98.91% with perfect play. It's been verified by multiple sources including "The Wizard of Odds". So unfortunately, I think your Deuces Wild code also has some errors.

This is often true. However, if 4 of a kind and a full house both pay 4 (as in Bovada's case), it is optimal to keep 2 pair to draw to a full house. Generally my games of choice always pay 4/4 for quads/boat (I don't have full pay deuces in my area). Also you have an odd typo in the first paytable set on your page. It says it pays 3 for a full house...but for 5 coins, it pays 18??

This is correct for traditional Deuces, but I'm going to point this out for xxl. This is true for regular deuces and Bonus Deuces, but not for Loose Deuces. Not breaking when the deuces pay 500 per coin is a big mistake. I had to break quints in Dec. at Fitzgerald's in Vegas (101.6% loose deuces), and failed to hit the fourth deuce.

Futhermore xxl, according to the Wizard, Bovada even offers a full-pay "Bonus Deuces Wild" Machine that pays 99.45%. So I would recommend playing that before the 98.91% payout machine.

http://wizardofodds.com/online-gambling/bodog/#pt15

A strategy for Bonus Dueces Wild may be created here:
http://www.vpgenius.com/video-poker/...ces-wild.aspx#

At least you got paid!!!

I was once playing near a couple, they were on a 100 line machine and they were dealt a royal.... They were cheering and hugging eachother sooo happy!!

I looked at the screen, they were dealt a royal on one line, playing 1 credit, for $0.01 each. They won $2.50....

I have decided that I want to get to the highest tier at a casino that is closest to me. They give 1 point every $5 in, and you reach the highest tier at 30,000 points. Ok, so $150,000 in. I expect to turn a slight profit over the course of achieving my goal with the theoretical and comp dollars alone, not including free plays they send out or give you. They do not give out exact numbers for the free plays of course but based on what I've heard they are actually pretty good.

I have found exactly one machine of deuces wild that will pay 99.96%. I'm trying to figure out what bankroll I will need to achieve this goal, and how the different number of lines played will alter this bankroll requirement. Maybe more important than overall bankroll is session bankrolls - how much should I make sure I bring with me for the amount of time spent playing? Most of my sessions will be 4-6 hours.

The machine is a .25 machine, and offers 1-3-5 lines for APDW. I know that obviously it will take much less time to play the 5 line, but how much will that affect my BR requirements? I have tried to figure out this problem, and can't seem to get it correct.

Can you guys tell me how to figure this out, or which site to use and how to use it? I tried to find the answer on wizard's site, and also using vpgenius, so maybe I'm looking in the wrong place on those sites?

Thanks in advance for any assistance.

Double check that 1 point for every $5 in. That is what it is for Slots sometimes but not VP...

My local gives the same for slots and VP. 1 point per dollar, 100,000 points = top tier. Too bad my best VP is JOB 8/5

It is indeed 1 point per $5 in. I have played a little already, and this is the amount. They make no distinction between VP and slots

Can someone tell me what the house edge on a 8/5 JOB game would be if a royal paid the same as a flush because that seems to be the game that I am playing. Just curious how bad the return would be on said machine.

Today I was dealt 4 to a royal in back to back hands. Luckily I at least turned a flush in both of them.

Find a different place to play. If a Royal pays the same as a flush, you're getting killed. A flush is 30 coins on a 5 coin machine at 9/6. A royal is 4000. Go to http://www.vpgenius.com/video-poker/...r-better.aspx# and you can put in your own paytable to determine the odds.

At 8/5, a flush is worth 25. It looks like a royal at 25 is 95.6192 according to the link above.

He has no other choices within ~2 hours, iirc. He is also frustrated because he is one of the unlucky ~8% that have gone 100k hands or more w/o a Royal. He isn't lucky enough to play in a place like Tunica where 99.96% APDW still exists. And speaking of APDW, I'm have some data for you corndogg, but I don't have it handy on this computer.

yes I am. I just hope I get a royal soon so I can stop complaining. I am getting on my nerves.

What a waste... Yeah, I played my normal stakes for terrible VP machines, so I'm okay with with a $240 spike.




Okay I finally got around to posting this.

By modififying code that can be found in this thread: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/25...op-me-1106020/

I have created a VP simulator based upon the idea that if you play a certain strategy you will have an average probability of every final hand result. So this simulator takes these weighted probabilities and pulls out a result like a bingo ball every hand. For example, on every hand sampled you have a ~1/43461 change to get a Royal and a ~55.8% to lose, and everything inbetween. So with this, we can take multiple samples of 120,000 hands ($150k coin in) and see the result trends. Also we can take smaller session samples (3000 hands, 9000 hands, etc.) to give insight as to a session bankroll.

NOTE: These sims assume you are error free. Obviously this is unlikely, however these sims also do not include comp value from playing the game either. I would assume in the case of a serious player, comp value > errors. NOTE2: This sim assumes a 1-play video poker machine. Multiline games will not work with this method of sampling. But as an estimate, we can just consider the variance of the total number of hands played when considering session bankroll needs. For example, variance of 9000 hands of 1-play ~ variance of 3000 hands of 3-play. 3000 hands of 3-play is about 12% swinger in terms of standard deviation than 9000 hands of 1-play, but it's a reasonable starting point

Overall BR expectations:

Here I ran 1000 samples of 120k hands each. Here is summary data.

Results
Sims 1000.0000000
BuyIn 1.0000000
ROI % -0.0429514
SD 5.0497111
Sim. Win % 47.9000000
% of Royalless Sims 5.4000000

$`Win/Loss Summary`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
-5488.000 -1577.000 -97.500 -6.461 1428.000 8038.000

$`Summary of Royals`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
0.000 2.000 3.000 2.795 4.000 10.000

So the worst sample in 1000 is -$5488, so a total BR of $5000 will give a very small risk of ruin. For 120k hands, you will get 2.795 Royals on average, but ~5.4% of the time, you will NOT get a Royal. 25% of the time you will win > $1428 and 25% of the time you will lose more than $1577.

Now lets look at "session bankrolls":
What are the swings of a typical VP session on this machine?

Here is data (10000 samples) for a 3000 hand session:

Results
Sims 10000.0000000
BuyIn 1.0000000
ROI % -0.0429514
SD 5.0497111
Trad. Ruin % 100.0000000
Sim. Win % 38.4900000
% of Royalless Sims 93.1500000

$`Win/Loss Summary`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
-655.000 -224.100 -80.000 -0.408 111.200 3109.000

$`Summary of Royals`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0704 0.0000 3.0000

Here losing $655 in a 3000 hand session is about a 1 in 10k event. I also ran a 1000 hand sim where the biggest loss was $537.50 for 3000 hands, so with these two facts in mind, bringing $500 to the casino will rarely let you go broke over 3000 hands. Your worst 25% of sessions will lose more than $224, your best 25% of sessions will win more than $111. Over smaller samples, your session win %age will typically be lower since a player is somewhat dependent on hitting the Royal and/or 4 Deuces to turn a session profit. You'd be expected to win about 38.5% of the time over 3000 hands.

Now lets consider longer sessions or playing multihand machines. With a 9000 hand session, now you probably should have a $1000 bankroll on you lose more than this a few percent of the time. Even more so if you have a 3000 hand Triple Play session in lieu of 9000 1-play hands as the standard deviation for triple play is ~12% higher for the same amount of coin-in. So for a 3000 hand 3x play session, I definitely recommend $1000/session. Here is other summary data for 9000 hand sessions of 1-play:

Results
Sims 10000.0000000
BuyIn 1.0000000
ROI % -0.0429514
SD 5.0497111
Sim. Win % 40.6500000
% of Royalless Sims 81.8900000

$`Win/Loss Summary`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
-1334.00 -421.60 -123.80 -10.44 291.20 3902.00


$`Summary of Royals`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.2013 0.0000 4.0000

I know this is tl;dr, but it should give you a good idea how much investment this will take. Questions/clarifications? Please ask.

Thank you very much for your effort - very informative!

You've laid it out pretty good here, I don't have much to ask about. Basically bring $500 bucks if I'm gonna play single line, $1000 if 3 lines, and if I'm gonna ramp it up and play 5 lines bring $1500?

I appreciate your work here, hopefully it helps others as well.

Roughly, yes, although I want to think that result is a bit coincidental. With 5 line, the variance (the square of standard deviation) now is almost 49% higher than 1 line and scales with hands played, so for a 3000 deal session of 5 play...a sample of 3000*5*1.49 ~ 22,300 1-play hands should be a decent model for BR swings. With this in mind, a BR of about $1500 should keep a risk of ruin around the ~5% range. The worst session sampled in 5000 sessions was about -$2286, the bottom 25% worse than $661 loss, best 25% is better than $578 win. Now obviously if you play fast and play more than 3000 deals per session, then these results would have to be obviously modified.

$`Ruin/Win Results`
Results
Sims 5000.0000000
BuyIn 1.0000000
ROI % -0.0429514
SD 5.0497111
Sim. Win % 45.2400000

$`Win/Loss Summary`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
-2286.0 -661.2 -106.2 8.2 577.5 4312.0

Also here is a histogram of 5000 session results in dollars on the x-axis for 3000 deals of 5-play (modeled by using 22300 hands of 1-play).

I've read in a couple video poker books about them not trusting Indian resort casinos as there is no regulation like in Vegas. They said that the VP machine can be programmed like slot machines on the payout and not base on the payout % numbers.

Is this true and any way of knowing from the machines or casino? I live up in the new england area so only options are these Indian casinos. Thanks

Foxwoods and Mohegan are legit.

If you can find the casino on this site: http://www.vpfree2.com/ then the game is legit. If you're only playing quarters, it also looks like Mohegan is a better bet.

If a casino is NOT listed there, then it probably runs like a class II machine, which acts like a bingo draw. Alabama video poker machines are an example of this. Strategy does not matter, you are guaranteed your win/loss from the moment the deal began. When I played there, I would often hold all 5 cards for fun and hope the "magic genie" would change my hand to a winner.

would it actually change the cards and give you a winner?

Please let this be true LOL.

If you discard a royal would it deal you another one?

Yes and yes.

Under Alabama state law, all gambling games have to be solely determined by bingo draws. But this also means, true poker probabilities need not apply either. Many of the games are 9/6 JOB from the paytable, but I'm sure they don't pay out 99.54%; anywhere in the low 90s in terms of payout percentages would be my best guess. Play for amusement only, obv. You also have the ability to change the bingo card you play with before playing and they will randomly generate you a new one. I often switched cards until I found a 69 in a corner.

<--- pervert

While playing there once, I was lucky enough to hit the "jackpot" on a Texas Tea slot machine, the only slot jackpot I've ever hit. 10000x line bet for $200 (betting 9 lines). In the game info for this machine, they listed ALL the bingo patterns that would collect a prize (75 numbers, no free spot). So if you had a computer handy, you could calculate the total return of the machine (probably 85-90%). To hit the jackpot, I had to hit a bingo pattern that looked something like this within 48 calls: X = hit O = blank

X X X X X
X O X X X
X X X X X
X X O O X
X X X X X

I dunno if this was the exact pattern (it was roughly 22 specific hits), but this exact pattern being hit in 48 calls or less is 1 in 188k if I didn't eff up the math [C(48,22)*22!*53!/75!], which is an ~appropriate number for a penny video slot jackpot when betting 9 lines. Single line odds for the jackpot are often over 1 in a million on penny machines. So 1 in 188k for 9 lines is reasonable.

On the machine the result looked like this, but with 5 "Texas Tea" symbols instead of oil derricks.