Quote:
Originally Posted by SuitedJunk
At least you got paid!!!
I was once playing near a couple, they were on a 100 line machine and they were dealt a royal.... They were cheering and hugging eachother sooo happy!!
I looked at the screen, they were dealt a royal on one line, playing 1 credit, for $0.01 each. They won $2.50....
What a waste...
Yeah, I played my normal stakes for terrible VP machines, so I'm okay with with a $240 spike.
Quote:
Originally Posted by corndogg99
I have decided that I want to get to the highest tier at a casino that is closest to me. They give 1 point every $5 in, and you reach the highest tier at 30,000 points. Ok, so $150,000 in. [sic]
I have found exactly one machine of deuces wild that will pay 99.96%. I'm trying to figure out what bankroll I will need to achieve this goal, and how the different number of lines played will alter this bankroll requirement. Maybe more important than overall bankroll is session bankrolls - how much should I make sure I bring with me for the amount of time spent playing? Most of my sessions will be 4-6 hours.
The machine is a .25 machine, and offers 1-3-5 lines for APDW. I know that obviously it will take much less time to play the 5 line, but how much will that affect my BR requirements? I have tried to figure out this problem, and can't seem to get it correct.
[sic]
Thanks in advance for any assistance.
Okay I finally got around to posting this.
By modififying code that can be found in this thread:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/25...op-me-1106020/
I have created a VP simulator based upon the idea that if you play a certain strategy you will have an average probability of every final hand result. So this simulator takes these weighted probabilities and pulls out a result like a bingo ball every hand. For example, on every hand sampled you have a ~1/43461 change to get a Royal and a ~55.8% to lose, and everything inbetween. So with this, we can take multiple samples of 120,000 hands ($150k coin in) and see the result trends. Also we can take smaller session samples (3000 hands, 9000 hands, etc.) to give insight as to a session bankroll.
NOTE: These sims assume you are error free. Obviously this is unlikely, however these sims also do not include comp value from playing the game either. I would assume in the case of a serious player, comp value > errors. NOTE2: This sim assumes a 1-play video poker machine. Multiline games will not work with this method of sampling. But as an estimate, we can just consider the variance of the total number of hands played when considering session bankroll needs. For example, variance of 9000 hands of 1-play ~ variance of 3000 hands of 3-play. 3000 hands of 3-play is about 12% swinger in terms of standard deviation than 9000 hands of 1-play, but it's a reasonable starting point
Overall BR expectations:
Here I ran 1000 samples of 120k hands each. Here is summary data.
Results
Sims 1000.0000000
BuyIn 1.0000000
ROI % -0.0429514
SD 5.0497111
Sim. Win % 47.9000000
% of Royalless Sims 5.4000000
$`Win/Loss Summary`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
-5488.000 -1577.000 -97.500 -6.461 1428.000 8038.000
$`Summary of Royals`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
0.000 2.000 3.000 2.795 4.000 10.000
So the worst sample in 1000 is -$5488, so a total BR of $5000 will give a very small risk of ruin. For 120k hands, you will get 2.795 Royals on average, but ~5.4% of the time, you will NOT get a Royal. 25% of the time you will win > $1428 and 25% of the time you will lose more than $1577.
Now lets look at "session bankrolls":
What are the swings of a typical VP session on this machine?
Here is data (10000 samples) for a 3000 hand session:
Results
Sims 10000.0000000
BuyIn 1.0000000
ROI % -0.0429514
SD 5.0497111
Trad. Ruin % 100.0000000
Sim. Win % 38.4900000
% of Royalless Sims 93.1500000
$`Win/Loss Summary`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
-655.000 -224.100 -80.000 -0.408 111.200 3109.000
$`Summary of Royals`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0704 0.0000 3.0000
Here losing $655 in a 3000 hand session is about a 1 in 10k event. I also ran a 1000 hand sim where the biggest loss was $537.50 for 3000 hands, so with these two facts in mind, bringing $500 to the casino will rarely let you go broke over 3000 hands. Your worst 25% of sessions will lose more than $224, your best 25% of sessions will win more than $111. Over smaller samples, your session win %age will typically be lower since a player is somewhat dependent on hitting the Royal and/or 4 Deuces to turn a session profit. You'd be expected to win about 38.5% of the time over 3000 hands.
Now lets consider longer sessions or playing multihand machines. With a 9000 hand session, now you probably should have a $1000 bankroll on you lose more than this a few percent of the time. Even more so if you have a 3000 hand Triple Play session in lieu of 9000 1-play hands as the standard deviation for triple play is ~12% higher for the same amount of coin-in. So for a 3000 hand 3x play session, I definitely recommend $1000/session. Here is other summary data for 9000 hand sessions of 1-play:
Results
Sims 10000.0000000
BuyIn 1.0000000
ROI % -0.0429514
SD 5.0497111
Sim. Win % 40.6500000
% of Royalless Sims 81.8900000
$`Win/Loss Summary`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
-1334.00 -421.60 -123.80 -10.44 291.20 3902.00
$`Summary of Royals`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.2013 0.0000 4.0000
I know this is tl;dr, but it should give you a good idea how much investment this will take. Questions/clarifications? Please ask.