Quote:
Originally Posted by FromACtoLV
I have a question about the "Winning Streak" video poker machines.
Let's say you're playing Jacks or Better and you already have a big winning hand like 4 of a kind, it is now more important to get any winning hand than it is to hit another big winner because of the multiplier. So in this scenario if you get dealt 4-4-8-K-Q would it now become better to keep the KQ than the 44?
Yes you should keep KQ in this spot.
Probability of a winner with KQ: 6164/16215 =0.38014
Probability of a winner with 44: 4656/16215 = 0.28714
So even for the minimum possible level up: 1X to 2X the value of the quads looks like this. Numbers are based on "for 1" payouts. Game takes five of these units to play (25 credits).
KQ: (25)(0.38014) = 9.5035
44: (25)(0.28714) = 7.1785
Difference: 2.325
And this doesn't even include future equity from successfully moving up.
Now obviously we are sacrificing equity on the base hand, but it's much less valuable than the four of a kind waiting to move up:
KQ: 0.4948
44: 0.8237
Difference: -0.3289
Sum of KQ vs. 44: 2.325 - 0.3289 = 1.9961
Now if your made hand was three of a kind instead, and you're only moving up from 1X to 2X, it would be much closer.
KQ: (3)(0.38014) = 1.14042
44: (3)(0.28714) = 0.86142
Difference: 0.279
KQ: 0.4948
44: 0.8237
Difference: -0.3289
Sum of KQ vs. 44: 2.325 - 0.3289 = -0.0499
Now it still might be that KQ is a better play because of future value of multipliers, but I can't quantify that very easily. Regardless, 44 vs KQ would be a close play if you only had trips one level above.
Unfortunately, strategy for this game is going to be ultra complex and completely dependent on the value of your previous wins and what multiplier state they are in. This strategy will be much more complex than multi-strike poker and Ultimate X Poker. The Wizard of Odds even has yet to complete a game return analysis, let alone a strategy.
I would avoid playing this game seriously in most cases due to its difficulty. But I will admit, it's fun to play though. Just avoid pulling this off while messing around with the game for "play money"...fml, fml, fml, FML!!!