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04-24-2012, 01:09 AM   #61
veteran

Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: Los Angeles
Posts: 2,816
Quote:
 Originally Posted by ractar Congrats on finding a roulette wheel that has no 0 or 00.
This

04-24-2012, 04:29 PM   #62
journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 280
Re: thoery to beat roulette can anyone see a flaw???

Quote:
 Originally Posted by soon2bepro MGM would be very dumb to turn down Bill Gates from betting money in the billions per spin if he were to promise to start by betting \$5 and then only double his bet when he lost the previous bet, and going back to \$5 whenever he won the previous bet.
I meant Bill Gates has to start by betting a billion.

04-24-2012, 11:39 PM   #63
enthusiast

Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 78
Re: thoery to beat roulette can anyone see a flaw???

Quote:
 Originally Posted by NewOldGuy Within any 5000 consecutive spins, the chance for a streak of 9 or more losses in a row (betting on red/black/odd/even) is 99.9%. For 10 or more losses in a row it's 98% Within any 500 consecutive spins, the chance for a streak of 9 or more losses in a row is 52%. For 10 or more losses in a row it's 32% These are on double 00 wheel. Most people (like you) think this event is much more rare than it actually is.
I used to think exactly that way.
the Bold a's above should read "at least one" . Yes it can get worse. Using BruceZ Excel VBA code for multiple streak probabilities I get the following table.
One can see that there is a 93.6480% probability of at least 4 runs of length 9 or more in 5k trials. Talk about many chances for a beating.

His code can be found at the link below in some Excel spreadsheets. I do not know if he has another link to them.
Multiple Losing Streak Probability Calculator

04-24-2012, 11:59 PM   #64
enthusiast

Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 78
Re: thoery to beat roulette can anyone see a flaw???

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Adz Bet 5 on black, if lose bet 10, if lose bet 20, if lose bet 40, when win go back to origional 5 bet and repeat.... in theory for 30 spins an hour you should win 50% of time, so 15 x \$5 is \$75 hourly rate.... as long as your rolled to cove a big loss streak you will always make \$5 on a win and break even on a loss because you make second bet bigger!!!.
Yes, I see a flaw in your example.

your 4 step Marty risking \$75 to double up is not a 50/50 prop.

18/37 = 33.92% chance of success to double your \$75 stake.
You would have to win 15 times in a row
with a win probability of 93.05% [1-(1-18/37)^4]
avg number of spins = 29

18/38 = 30.19% to double the \$75 stake.
avg number of spins = 30

You got the number of trials right.
Of course you can have some winnings IF and when the 4 losses in row happen.

A much larger bankroll will increase your winning probability of doubling a stake, but you can do the math on that.

At times a Martingale can give the highest probability of hitting a win goal. This is the concept, a real good math exercise also, known as Bold Play.

Maybe BruceZ has done the math for the Red and Black game in another thread.

Sally

 04-25-2012, 12:30 AM #65 veteran     Join Date: Oct 2009 Location: LV, UT, \$\$ Posts: 3,126 Re: thoery to beat roulette can anyone see a flaw??? i think maybe the best way to martingale is with blackjack. That way when you do get those huge bets out you can get a BJ/ split/ double down. Instead of winning \$5.
 04-25-2012, 12:37 AM #66 Pooh-Bah     Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: US Posts: 3,627 Re: thoery to beat roulette can anyone see a flaw??? You could find a craps table with 32768x odds
04-25-2012, 06:36 AM   #67
The Situation

Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: CA and Vegas
Posts: 8,584
Re: thoery to beat roulette can anyone see a flaw???

Quote:
 Originally Posted by bubonicplay i think maybe the best way to martingale is with blackjack. That way when you do get those huge bets out you can get a BJ/ split/ double down. Instead of winning \$5.
+1

If you were going to martigale it, blackjack would be the game for exactly this reason IMO.

04-25-2012, 08:11 AM   #68
old hand

Join Date: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,302
Re: thoery to beat roulette can anyone see a flaw???

Quote:
 Originally Posted by bubonicplay i think maybe the best way to martingale is with blackjack. That way when you do get those huge bets out you can get a BJ/ split/ double down. Instead of winning \$5.
what about when you lose 8 in a row and you get dealt 8 8,split then 8, 3 then double and you lose all three bets. You just loss \$5120, then what is your next bet? 10k? however if you get a BJ on that you are baller and should go party it up for the night.

 04-25-2012, 08:13 AM #69 old hand   Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 1,302 Re: thoery to beat roulette can anyone see a flaw??? If you are really going to martingale then I would do it this way 5, 11, 23, 47, 95 instead of 5, 10, 20, 40, 80 At least on the top one you will win \$9 instead of \$5 at the end of the run.
04-25-2012, 08:26 AM   #70
veteran

Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: In the wires
Posts: 2,335
Re: thoery to beat roulette can anyone see a flaw???

Quote:
 Originally Posted by sallymustang the Bold a's above should read "at least one" .
Yes, that's right but it still says the same thing. Your word would clarify for someone who that wasn't obvious to.

 04-25-2012, 09:14 AM #71 centurion     Join Date: Oct 2009 Location: Around Posts: 146 Re: thoery to beat roulette can anyone see a flaw??? no money in roulette, everyones solid
04-25-2012, 11:19 AM   #72
veteran

Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: LV, UT, \$\$
Posts: 3,126
Re: thoery to beat roulette can anyone see a flaw???

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Barbiaux what about when you lose 8 in a row and you get dealt 8 8,split then 8, 3 then double and you lose all three bets. You just loss \$5120, then what is your next bet? 10k? however if you get a BJ on that you are baller and should go party it up for the night.

Its simple you just kill yourself.

04-26-2012, 01:13 PM   #73
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 4,280
Re: thoery to beat roulette can anyone see a flaw???

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Barbiaux If you are really going to wager in an incredibly stupid way then I would do it this way in order to lose money even faster and prove I'm even more stupid than the average punter.
.

 05-16-2012, 06:55 PM #74 grinder     Join Date: Jul 2009 Location: Location Posts: 634 Re: thoery to beat roulette can anyone see a flaw??? @op This will only work if you switch colours every spin. It might hit black 20 times in a row (as mentioned above) but keep switching and it can't dodge you forever
05-16-2012, 09:16 PM   #75
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Phoenix
Posts: 4,677
Re: thoery to beat roulette can anyone see a flaw???

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Reaper421 @op This will only work if you switch colours every spin. It might hit black 20 times in a row (as mentioned above) but keep switching and it can't dodge you forever
The Epaminondas System

Always place the next wager on the winner of the previous trial. The system is designed to profit from imagined or undetermined bias, anticipating a non-alternating outcome.

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