Down to my last 30 titled from 1/2 so put 15 on trips 10 on ante and my last 5 on play

In UTH you have to post an equal ante and blind and then bet 1-4x on the play. So I'm guessing you had 15 on the trips and 5-5-5 on the others. Regardless, nice hit.

Reminds me of my first trip to Vegas. I started out betting 10 or 15 on the ante/blind and had a good run on the 4x preflop raises. Soon I was up 7-800 so decided to go for broke and made my biggest bet I've ever made on a table game. I put a black chip on the ante and blind (I never play the trips). I cursed my luck when I was dealt 3-9, but felt a little better when I flopped trip nines. I put up two more black chips and watched as the beautiful nine hit the river. Nice $1300 payout (big money for me at the time). Gave it all back and more over the next few months at my local casino though. **** UTH.

Hi all,

I was playing at a casino in Singapore, and they had the jackpot as well. I wonder if its good to make the jackpot bet of $2.50 ? ( the ante is $25 )

The jackpot as of yesterday was $140,000. How much would it have to be to make +EV?

The payout is something like this:


PROGRESSIVE JACKPOT PAYOUT

HAND PAYOUT
Royal Flush (5 cards/FLOP) 100% of the Progressive Jackpot
Royal Flush (6 cards/TURN)
With at least one player pocket card 25% of the Progressive Jackpot
Royal Flush (7 cards/RIVER)
With at least one player pocket card 5% of the Progressive Jackpot

BEST OF 7 CARDS – FIXED PAYOUT*

HAND PAYOUT (RM)
Community Royal Flush 10,000(x credits bet)
Community/Straight Flush 1,500(x credits bet)
Community/Four of a Kind 300(x credits bet)

The probability of making a fill-in Royal on any street is 0.0031%, and flopping it is 0.0002%. Ballpark I'd say it probably has to be somewhere around the $150,000 mark to reach a break even point.

Which casino in Singapore had this game?

the one at RWS

A collusion strategy has NOT been figured out yet for this game.

I have a sense that this game would indeed be +EV if a good collusion strategy was worked out. I'd have to imagine that there is a ton of equity to be gained by folding already bad hands when you see your hole cards amongst the other players.

Now, obviously there would need to be some simulations done and number crunching to develop an effective, but playable strategy but I really feel like it's possible.

Another thing to be taken into consideration is the value of collusion for the turn and river bets, like when you have Q high on an A73 board, but you see some of those cards (aces, 7's, 3's) in people's hands, you know your Q high is probably +EV vs. 2 randoms at the moment.

Similarly, the collusion strategy for UTH is severely lacking. It only takes into account how many of your two hole cards are taken by the other players, but there is no strategy about other cards being taken that would affect the value of your hand.

Example: you have Q7 off which normally would be a check, but you see in other people's hands that 3 aces and 3 kings are gone. Your Queen high is definitely +EV here. Or similarly to the THB example, you check your K2 and the flop brings Q74 and you see a lot of those cards amongst the other players. King high is probably good here.

etc. etc. etc.

Right now, the collusion strategies don't take any of this into account. There is money here to be made, people.

Dealer mistakes alone DEFINITELY makes the game +EV.

No collusion strategy makes this game +EV. It's been shown that if everyone played with their hands face up (not dealer obviously) it's still -EV.

your sense is almost certainly wrong.

This is also wrong. Example:
http://discountgambling.net/2010/06/...red-board-uth/

At least in Vegas, dealer mistakes are way down compared to when they first introduced it in like '07 I want to say.

That's a bummer. I used to play it sometimes when dealer errors happened often enough to make it +EV

That collusion strategy discusses when to call with kickers due to other players holding cards that pair the board.

Sure, that is one type of information, but the info I mentioned in my example specifically referred to
1. Making pf decisions using info of other players' cards, but not necessarily from the cards you're holding. Specifically in my example, if you hold Q6 offsuit, it's a check, but the current collusion strategy explains that this decision may change if you are able to see the table's hands and compare the number of Queens and eights accounted for.

So this ONLY takes into account the cards you're holding. What I'm saying is that with such a hand, aces and kings would also be significant cards to know about in the other players' hands.

Now, in this link http://discountgambling.net/2010/01/...red-board-uth/ where he discusses collusion strategy for 2nd nut kickers, check out this post and his response in the comments section:



"Is there a reason you are not taking into account 1st nut kickers in other players’ hands?




stephenhow said, on August 2, 2012 at 9:39 am

I wanted to keep the fold criteria as simple as possible, and figured the 2D table above was as much as people would remember. Knowledge of outstanding nut (and 2nd nut) kickers is helpful, but not of the same value as board hits. That’s because if the dealer pairs, you lose all your bets, whereas if the dealer only has a better kicker, you’ll keep your Ante. I leave it up to the player to synthesize in knowledge of nut and 2nd nut kickers among fellow players.


Mick said, on August 7, 2012 at 6:32 am

For preflop marginal Kx hands like K5o, are the number of aces in other players’ hands important or negligible?


stephenhow said, on August 7, 2012 at 10:35 am

The number of over cards in the player’s hands is indeed significant for your borderline 4x raise hands. I haven’t looked at it in a while, but the number of high cards in the player’s hands make a difference. But it’s too much information for most people, and too complicated a strategy to specify."


So there you have it. It does make a difference, but he feels like it's too complicated for most people to apply it.

Then what difference does it make? Counting every single card with fractional point values would improve a blackjack player's edge, but it's wholly impractical and the return would be so miniscule as to not be worth it anyway. If it's not feasible it's not feasible, and is only worth discussing as a sort of thought experiment.

This became a Texas Hold'em Bonus and a UTH thread.

What I said was that it's too complex for most people to do it effectively. But so is card counting. So is being a winning poker player.

It could be worthwhile if it's not too complex for people who are competent at those things.

Except here you're analyzing suit, rank, and combinations, then comparing them to your own. I could see it being something that MIGHT tip the scales with computer aid at a full table, but even then I'd be betting on it still remaining -EV.

And for the same effort you could probably find a dozen flashers and get a return an order of magnitude better.

Does anyone know which Vegas casinos have this game right now?
I'm heading there in a couple weeks.
Thank you

I saw it at Ballys last week. I'm sure most mid/large casinos have it.

It's at pretty much every Harrah's property. (Not at Rio, tho) Also played it at MGM, so possibly at all of those properties, too.

I firmly believe that this game is beatable with collusion. I am going to start working on figuring out a proper strategy. If you would be interested on joining me in this challenge, please PM me.

To those who say it's not possible, please comment on my response a few posts up. Current collusion strategies (mainly for UTH) does not take into consideration cards that you do not hold, only what you do.

I think that collusion would actually have a greater effect in THB than UTH, since in UTH once a decision is made, no other decision is made for the rest of the hand. But THB has 3 decision points.

thanks for the help, Lattimer and double down.
ballys, mgm and harrahs don't list the game on their websites, but I take your word for it.

I promise mgm and harrahs have it. I just played it last weekend (and crushed it! Woop woop!)

Thanks double down.
I'm staying at the venetian so harrah's is not too far.

How did you crush the game?
Any tips?

I don't play the bonus, but I've lost money on this game.

luck, ldo

Most definitely. And although I've put in a lot of hours, it's in no way close to being the long run. However...

With my girlfriend and I playing together, we are able to see the cards of not only each other, but 2 or 3 other players at the table (depending on their level of friendliness and casualness) and although I am playing with the optimal strategy created by Stephen How on discountgambling.net, there have been MANY MANY times that I have altered my decision based on other players' holdings.

Times when I have T2 preflop, but I see that two of my tens are gone and so is a deuce. So I fold.

Times when I have A7, and the flop comes K92 and two people have a king and someone has a 9. So I make the bet instead of checking.

This has worked out in my favor the vast majority of the time, with of course the occasional time that it backfires. But for the most part, I'm up way more $$ from my changes in strategy than not.

The problem is that right now it's all guesswork. In the A7 hand, did the absence of two kings and a 9 make a bet now more profitable than checking? I'm not sure. Intuitively, yes. But I couldn't pokerstove it at the table. Well, what if it was only one king and a nine gone? What if just one king? Where's the line?

I remember I had one hand where I had 96 diamonds. Two other players at the table had 6's and someone had a 9. Is my 96 now a fold? I really wasn't sure. I ended up playing it and hit the case 6 and it won. But who knows what the best play was?

I think that there is a lot of room for study in this game, and the consistency and rate at which I have won tells me that although it COULD all be short term luck, if there's a chance that it's not, it could be something worth pursuing. The problem is that I have only an intermediate understanding of probably and statistics, and I'm not computer savvy at all, so I'd have no clue how to create a program to run simulations.

Another big reason for the profit: The dealers are horrendous. I got paid a few times on my recent trip due to dealer mistakes. One time I had A9 and got paid on a JT422 board when the dealer turned over A7. I don't remember the other mistakes. But there were many others made that affected other players. Certainly countless times that the dealer tried to TAKE the other players' bets bc they weren't able to read their hand.

The dealer we had that made the mistake above might have been one of the worst dealers I've seen at any game ever. She actually came up to the table and asked us how she was supposed to deal the game. And even though the bonus is based on what you have on your first 2 cards (essentially for pocket pairs and AJ-AK) she was actually trying to pay people out for what they made for their hand! So if you had T9 and the board had a 9, she tried to pay you out like 5:1 on your bonus for having a pair of 9s.

She did this on her first 2 hands. My gf and I never play the bonus, but once we realized what she was doing, we were about to start, until this angry old British lady at the end of the table explained to her her mistake. It could have cost Harrah's thousands had she not said anything.

The morality issue aside, dealer mistakes in this game easily make it +EV. There's just a high level of variance in which dealer you'll get, how often they make a mistake, if it's for another player but not you, etc. But if you play perfect b.s. and bet $10/hand, you're only losing $6.90/hr. On average, you have 3.9 bets out there (so playing $10/hand means you actually average $39 per hand). So a dealer's mistake in your favor would be worth somewhere between $39 and $78. I derived this from the idea that it's worth $39 for the times that they push you instead of correctly taking your money, or pay you the times that you should push. But it's $78 for the times you get paid instead of losing.

If, hypothetically, a dealer makes 1 mistake per hour and the table averages, say, 4.5 players (I'm totally pulling this figure out of my ass just for the sake of the hypothetical), then you benefit from this 1/4.5 times. So $39-$78, let's average it and say ~$58/4.5= just under $13. So in this hypothetical, just from dealer mistakes alone, you're making $6.10/hr at this game.

I just realized that the mistake is worth slightly less only in that when you are paid out, you're usually not paid out on the ante so it's not a full swing -$39 to +$39, but you get the idea.

I looked for THb at a few vegas casinos but only found one table at Harrah's.
It was difficult to find too.
I played a little and lost $200 in about an hour and a half.
Didn't enjoy gambling in vegas w the smokers.
I won playing other games like let it ride and another poker related game.
Thanks for the intel guys.