well -EV games require an infinite bankroll so there's that

I calculated the SD of this game recently. It's worse than $1/$2 NLHE if you play optimal strategy with a $5 ante. The thread may be found here: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/25...ities-1182874/

So with an SD of $247/100 hands, to play 100 hands and bust out 2.5% or less one should bring roughly $247*2 + $11 (house edge) ~ $500.

Yeah I went and played tonight, and it was really rough. Basically one of those nights you made squat or some pairs and didn't hold, i made boat-dealer made quads, etc. Burned thru 200 pretty quickly. Does anyone just play and shoot for the bonus, even tho it's a bad bet? Tonight they had 2 buck min for ante, and 1 for bonus, so I wanted to gamble and played 2 ante and 5 on bonus.

Also, if someone is hot on the bonus, do you ever ask if you can add on to their bonus circle? If so, do you compensate them if you hit or just hope they are reasonable and give you your share?

Depending on the paytable, the bonus isn't that much worse than the base game. Here is one with only a 3.5% house edge.

Player Hand	Combinations	Pays	Probability	Return
Royal flush	4324	50	0.000032	0.001616
Straight flush	37260	40	0.000279	0.01114
Four of a kind	224848	30	0.001681	0.05042
Full house	3473184	8	0.025961	0.207688
Flush	4047644	7	0.030255	0.211785
Straight	6180020	4	0.046194	0.184775
Three of a kind	6461620	3	0.048299	0.144896
All other	113355660	-1	0.8473	-0.8473
Total	133784560		1	-0.034979

if quads/boat/flush/straight pay 20/7/6/5 instead, then the house edge is 6.18%.

This also has a lower variance than near optimal strategy in the base game, which can be found here:

http://wizardofodds.com/games/ultima...d-em/strategy/

The SD of the 3.5% house edge bonus game is 2.68 bets/hand = 26.8 bets/100 hands = $134/100 hands for a $5 bonus bet.

Also one quick comment about optimal strategy in the base game. It is a very swingy strategy, expecting you to bet 4x with K5s and the like. Most players at the table probably don't follow it. I was observing a game recently and watched a guy check middle pair on a dry flop (significant mistake)...haha.

Nah that's a different version of the game. This is the one where you do ante, double the ante to see flop, then you can chk turn and river. The bonus paytable is just based on your preflop cards. 30-1 for AA, 25-1 AKs, 20-1 AQs, 15-1 AQo/AJs, 10-1 KK QQ JJ, etc. Obviously a huge rip off just by looking at it. In the game I was talking about, you get paid the same for str8 flush as you do regular flush, and you only get paid on ante if you get str8 or better.

I'm not sure what's worse, getting 10:1 on some 1:220 holdings or getting 1000:1 on a 1:270k event. (Well, I'm quite sure mathematically, but damn. I had to look up AA vs AA and thought I would point out how much worse of a beat the big payout is.)

Oops you're right, the things I spouted off about was Ultimate Texas Holdem, which is similar game.

Data on Texas Holdem Bonus can be found here:

http://wizardofodds.com/games/texas-hold-em-bonus/

The bonus pay tables he shows have over an 8% edge.

He also says the Standard Deviation of the game is 3.5 units/hand. So this means it's 35 units/100 hands or $175/100 hands for a $5 ante. So with perfect play (which is more difficult than Ultimate Texas Holdem), you would want to have a BR of over 2*175 + 0.055*500 = ~$375 to limit you going broke over 100 hands to less than 3% or so. This all assumes perfect strategy.

If the ante pushes on a flush or higher the base game's house edge is a terrible 5.5% of the ante bet. I would really consider playing something else if this was the case since playing most other table games (even roulette!) is a better wager.

Well, remember you can't have AA vs AA pay the entire value of the bonus bet otherwise the player would have to lose 99.999% of the time. The Wizard points out that the AA vs AA outcome at 1000-1 only contributes 0.37% to the wager's overall return. Most of the value of the wager comes from getting AA and lower hands by yourself. Sadly they could pay 10k to 1 on AA vs AA and the bet would still have a 5.22% house edge

this game is definitely beatable played a 14 hour session a couple days ago won close to 400. using decent strategy and betting for value on turn and river are key like betting an ace high on a paired board. dont play the bonus its a sucker bet. I cut into my profit matgin by playing the bonus 8 times over that span. fold garbage hands.

sounds like a sufficiently large sample size to me. I am extremely confident that your success is skill based and not due to luck, and that if you can keep these 14 hour days up you will be a millionaire in a few years (sooner if you increase your bet sizing).

Considering the standard deviation for a 14 hour session on a minimum wager equals close to the amount you won ($400), I am sure it's beatable "longterm".

Seriously though, this game is -EV in the eternal run unless you can do something like hole card the dealer's hand/community cards. It's been mathematically proven that this game has a 2.04% house edge if the ante pushes on anything less than a straight.

http://wizardofodds.com/games/texas-hold-em-bonus/

I'm not saying this game is +ev but I've played many hours and I truly do not believe there is any way to really calculate the house edge because of the game's high level of complexity. So many people play this game so wrong that sometimes I wonder if the game is somewhat +ev for a person playing optimal strategy.

Think about it, theoretically a casino could put out a beatable game like this for someone who does everything right if 9/10 people are not playing right and giving up their edge.

So you're trying to say that Michael Shackleford, "The Wizard of Odds", who was recently hired by the Venetian as "Director of Gaming Mathematics" would just make up the table posted below? Hell, I need a job right now, maybe I should make up some gaming math tables...lol And the table below is determined from optimal strategy! A computer tests every possibility and keeps the best result for the player. But even optimal strategy is -EV because casinos are greedy *******s! The only reason blackjack still exists in casinos is historical popularity. Casinos today would probably love to get rid of it if it wouldn't hurt their bottom line.

taken from: http://wizardofodds.com/games/texas-hold-em-bonus/

Turn Bet	River Bet	Outcome	Win	Combinations	Probability	Return
No	No	Dealer wins	-3	16191937969988	0.291077	-0.873232
No	No	Tie	0	1259275163176	0.022638	0
No	No	Player wins with less than straight	2	5303424537200	0.095338	0.190676
No	No	Player wins with straight or higher	3	1084471210036	0.019495	0.058486
No	Yes	Dealer wins	-4	1396173000700	0.025099	-0.100394
No	Yes	Tie	0	167704605536	0.003015	0
No	Yes	Player wins with less than straight	3	2296867062000	0.04129	0.12387
No	Yes	Player wins with straight or higher	4	605730184164	0.010889	0.043556
Yes	No	Dealer wins	-4	1896639509356	0.034095	-0.136381
Yes	No	Tie	0	135581445288	0.002437	0
Yes	No	Player wins with less than straight	3	1247381880480	0.022424	0.067271
Yes	No	Player wins with straight or higher	4	252140929436	0.004533	0.018131
Yes	Yes	Dealer wins	-5	5604708827316	0.100754	-0.50377
Yes	Yes	Tie	0	547943447680	0.00985	0
Yes	Yes	Player wins with less than straight	4	12372657154480	0.222419	0.889677
Yes	Yes	Player wins with straight or higher	5	2747896241164	0.049398	0.24699
Player folds			-1	2517086880000	0.045249	-0.045249
Total				55627620048000	1	-0.020369

However, you are correct that the casino could probably offer this game with a small +EV edge and get away with it because a vast majority of players would not follow close to optimal strategy at least in the short term. And true optimal strategy is impossible, but there are learnable strategies that are close. One strategy on the page linked below gives the house a 2.3% edge: http://discountgambling.net/texas-holdem-bonus/

Currently, I wouldn't be shocked if the average player gave 10% or more to the house by playing this game. But the variance in the game still allows these players to occasionally also come away a winner. The same goes for Ultimate Texas Holdem whose strategy is easier/more intuitive, imo.

I have now played this game a lot and watched others and how horrible they play. Flopping pairs and not betting 2x. AA and not 4x bc A's never win!!!!

Betting $5 on ante and blind and $25 on the trips bet????

I dont get it. But I have played at tables where people have hands like KJ QT KQ A9 and wont bet 4x so I offer to put up 2x and they 2x. Thats a +EV bet for me all day.

I dont bet the trips (its the 3% house adv pay table at my casino) but everyone else does and people have bet the trips bet on my hand and give me money if we hit!!! Yesterday a lady put $5 up and I got a straight and she gave me $5. I freerolled that bet and hit straight, trips, straight, flush, then quads! That was a fun freeroll for me and the lady next to me made out.

Its also nice to know what cards are out. My casino is cracking down on showing cards but they let you say the cards. I think it has to help my EV a bit (I know the math shows that its not a big advantage at all).

I think you are confusing Texas Hold'em Bonus with Ultimate Texas Hold'em. Very similar games, but different betting structures.

yep... I was wondering how I missed a thread for ulitamate TH. Oh well.