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 04-03-2012, 08:27 PM #61 Beat Nate Silver     Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: Blogging 2012 Election Projections Posts: 12,053 Re: Texas Hold'em Bonus - +EV? well -EV games require an infinite bankroll so there's that
04-03-2012, 08:48 PM   #62
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Re: Texas Hold'em Bonus - +EV?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by bef99hwk Can anyone talk about the bankroll for this game using 5 buck ante or so? I hate going with 100 bucks, and even though small sample, I've only run bad once with no cards and lost pretty quickly. What should u be buying in for at this game? 100 with a cap of _____? Also, I hate playing bonus, and never do, but there are sessions like other day where I lost 500 in bonus money. Is there somewhere you can play around with standard deviations and such in this game?
I calculated the SD of this game recently. It's worse than \$1/\$2 NLHE if you play optimal strategy with a \$5 ante. The thread may be found here: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/25...ities-1182874/

Quote:
 Originally Posted by tringlomane Doing some quick math from the Wizard's Payout Analysis, the standard deviation with optimal strategy is 49.4 units/100 hands = \$247/100 hands for a \$5 "minimum" bet. The equivalent SD for a live \$1/\$2 NL game would have to be 123.5bb/100. LOL...this game is definitely swingier than \$1/\$2 NL live; it's pushing toward the SD of \$1/\$2 PLO live.
So with an SD of \$247/100 hands, to play 100 hands and bust out 2.5% or less one should bring roughly \$247*2 + \$11 (house edge) ~ \$500.

 04-03-2012, 09:55 PM #63 Pooh-Bah   Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Kansas Posts: 3,829 Re: Texas Hold'em Bonus - +EV? Yeah I went and played tonight, and it was really rough. Basically one of those nights you made squat or some pairs and didn't hold, i made boat-dealer made quads, etc. Burned thru 200 pretty quickly. Does anyone just play and shoot for the bonus, even tho it's a bad bet? Tonight they had 2 buck min for ante, and 1 for bonus, so I wanted to gamble and played 2 ante and 5 on bonus. Also, if someone is hot on the bonus, do you ever ask if you can add on to their bonus circle? If so, do you compensate them if you hit or just hope they are reasonable and give you your share?
04-04-2012, 12:40 AM   #64
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Re: Texas Hold'em Bonus - +EV?

Depending on the paytable, the bonus isn't that much worse than the base game. Here is one with only a 3.5% house edge.

Player HandCombinationsPaysProbabilityReturn
Royal flush 4324500.0000320.001616
Straight flush37260400.0002790.01114
Four of a kind224848300.0016810.05042
Full house 347318480.0259610.207688
Flush 404764470.0302550.211785
Straight 618002040.0461940.184775
Three of a kind646162030.0482990.144896
All other 113355660-10.8473-0.8473
Total 133784560 1 -0.034979

This also has a lower variance than near optimal strategy in the base game, which can be found here:

http://wizardofodds.com/games/ultima...d-em/strategy/

The SD of the 3.5% house edge bonus game is 2.68 bets/hand = 26.8 bets/100 hands = \$134/100 hands for a \$5 bonus bet.

Also one quick comment about optimal strategy in the base game. It is a very swingy strategy, expecting you to bet 4x with K5s and the like. Most players at the table probably don't follow it. I was observing a game recently and watched a guy check middle pair on a dry flop (significant mistake)...haha.

 04-04-2012, 01:56 PM #65 Pooh-Bah   Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Kansas Posts: 3,829 Re: Texas Hold'em Bonus - +EV? Nah that's a different version of the game. This is the one where you do ante, double the ante to see flop, then you can chk turn and river. The bonus paytable is just based on your preflop cards. 30-1 for AA, 25-1 AKs, 20-1 AQs, 15-1 AQo/AJs, 10-1 KK QQ JJ, etc. Obviously a huge rip off just by looking at it. In the game I was talking about, you get paid the same for str8 flush as you do regular flush, and you only get paid on ante if you get str8 or better.
04-05-2012, 08:09 AM   #66
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Re: Texas Hold'em Bonus - +EV?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by nuisance Above is correct 30-1 for pocket aces. some places in vegas pay 3000-1 (yes 3000-1) if you and the dealer have pocket aces but most places are 1000-1.
Quote:
 Originally Posted by bef99hwk Nah that's a different version of the game. This is the one where you do ante, double the ante to see flop, then you can chk turn and river. The bonus paytable is just based on your preflop cards. 30-1 for AA, 25-1 AKs, 20-1 AQs, 15-1 AQo/AJs, 10-1 KK QQ JJ, etc. Obviously a huge rip off just by looking at it. In the game I was talking about, you get paid the same for str8 flush as you do regular flush, and you only get paid on ante if you get str8 or better.
I'm not sure what's worse, getting 10:1 on some 1:220 holdings or getting 1000:1 on a 1:270k event. (Well, I'm quite sure mathematically, but damn. I had to look up AA vs AA and thought I would point out how much worse of a beat the big payout is.)

04-05-2012, 04:51 PM   #67
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Re: Texas Hold'em Bonus - +EV?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by bef99hwk Nah that's a different version of the game. This is the one where you do ante, double the ante to see flop, then you can chk turn and river. The bonus paytable is just based on your preflop cards. 30-1 for AA, 25-1 AKs, 20-1 AQs, 15-1 AQo/AJs, 10-1 KK QQ JJ, etc. Obviously a huge rip off just by looking at it. In the game I was talking about, you get paid the same for str8 flush as you do regular flush, and you only get paid on ante if you get str8 or better.
Oops you're right, the things I spouted off about was Ultimate Texas Holdem, which is similar game.

Data on Texas Holdem Bonus can be found here:

http://wizardofodds.com/games/texas-hold-em-bonus/

The bonus pay tables he shows have over an 8% edge.

He also says the Standard Deviation of the game is 3.5 units/hand. So this means it's 35 units/100 hands or \$175/100 hands for a \$5 ante. So with perfect play (which is more difficult than Ultimate Texas Holdem), you would want to have a BR of over 2*175 + 0.055*500 = ~\$375 to limit you going broke over 100 hands to less than 3% or so. This all assumes perfect strategy.

If the ante pushes on a flush or higher the base game's house edge is a terrible 5.5% of the ante bet. I would really consider playing something else if this was the case since playing most other table games (even roulette!) is a better wager.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by DRybes I'm not sure what's worse, getting 10:1 on some 1:220 holdings or getting 1000:1 on a 1:270k event. (Well, I'm quite sure mathematically, but damn. I had to look up AA vs AA and thought I would point out how much worse of a beat the big payout is.)
Well, remember you can't have AA vs AA pay the entire value of the bonus bet otherwise the player would have to lose 99.999% of the time. The Wizard points out that the AA vs AA outcome at 1000-1 only contributes 0.37% to the wager's overall return. Most of the value of the wager comes from getting AA and lower hands by yourself. Sadly they could pay 10k to 1 on AA vs AA and the bet would still have a 5.22% house edge

 07-04-2012, 10:53 PM #68 old hand     Join Date: Apr 2011 Location: Ohio Posts: 1,270 Re: Texas Hold'em Bonus - +EV? this game is definitely beatable played a 14 hour session a couple days ago won close to 400. using decent strategy and betting for value on turn and river are key like betting an ace high on a paired board. dont play the bonus its a sucker bet. I cut into my profit matgin by playing the bonus 8 times over that span. fold garbage hands.
07-04-2012, 11:17 PM   #69
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Posts: 8,323
Re: Texas Hold'em Bonus - +EV?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by maulaga58 this game is definitely beatable played a 14 hour session a couple days ago won close to 400.
sounds like a sufficiently large sample size to me. I am extremely confident that your success is skill based and not due to luck, and that if you can keep these 14 hour days up you will be a millionaire in a few years (sooner if you increase your bet sizing).

07-05-2012, 04:51 PM   #70
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Re: Texas Hold'em Bonus - +EV?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by maulaga58 this game is definitely beatable played a 14 hour session a couple days ago won close to 400. using decent strategy and betting for value on turn and river are key like betting an ace high on a paired board. dont play the bonus its a sucker bet. I cut into my profit matgin by playing the bonus 8 times over that span. fold garbage hands.
Considering the standard deviation for a 14 hour session on a minimum wager equals close to the amount you won (\$400), I am sure it's beatable "longterm".

Seriously though, this game is -EV in the eternal run unless you can do something like hole card the dealer's hand/community cards. It's been mathematically proven that this game has a 2.04% house edge if the ante pushes on anything less than a straight.

http://wizardofodds.com/games/texas-hold-em-bonus/

07-16-2012, 08:21 AM   #71
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Re: Texas Hold'em Bonus - +EV?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by tringlomane Considering the standard deviation for a 14 hour session on a minimum wager equals close to the amount you won (\$400), I am sure it's beatable "longterm". Seriously though, this game is -EV in the eternal run unless you can do something like hole card the dealer's hand/community cards. It's been mathematically proven that this game has a 2.04% house edge if the ante pushes on anything less than a straight. http://wizardofodds.com/games/texas-hold-em-bonus/
I'm not saying this game is +ev but I've played many hours and I truly do not believe there is any way to really calculate the house edge because of the game's high level of complexity. So many people play this game so wrong that sometimes I wonder if the game is somewhat +ev for a person playing optimal strategy.

Think about it, theoretically a casino could put out a beatable game like this for someone who does everything right if 9/10 people are not playing right and giving up their edge.

07-16-2012, 04:29 PM   #72
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Re: Texas Hold'em Bonus - +EV?

So you're trying to say that Michael Shackleford, "The Wizard of Odds", who was recently hired by the Venetian as "Director of Gaming Mathematics" would just make up the table posted below? Hell, I need a job right now, maybe I should make up some gaming math tables...lol And the table below is determined from optimal strategy! A computer tests every possibility and keeps the best result for the player. But even optimal strategy is -EV because casinos are greedy *******s! The only reason blackjack still exists in casinos is historical popularity. Casinos today would probably love to get rid of it if it wouldn't hurt their bottom line.

taken from: http://wizardofodds.com/games/texas-hold-em-bonus/

Turn BetRiver BetOutcomeWinCombinationsProbabilityReturn
NoNoDealer wins-3161919379699880.291077-0.873232
NoNoTie012592751631760.0226380
NoNoPlayer wins with less than straight253034245372000.0953380.190676
NoNoPlayer wins with straight or higher310844712100360.0194950.058486
NoYesDealer wins-413961730007000.025099-0.100394
NoYesTie01677046055360.0030150
NoYesPlayer wins with less than straight322968670620000.041290.12387
NoYesPlayer wins with straight or higher46057301841640.0108890.043556
YesNoDealer wins-418966395093560.034095-0.136381
YesNoTie01355814452880.0024370
YesNoPlayer wins with less than straight312473818804800.0224240.067271
YesNoPlayer wins with straight or higher42521409294360.0045330.018131
YesYesDealer wins-556047088273160.100754-0.50377
YesYesTie05479434476800.009850
YesYesPlayer wins with less than straight4123726571544800.2224190.889677
YesYesPlayer wins with straight or higher527478962411640.0493980.24699
Player folds  -125170868800000.045249-0.045249
Total   556276200480001-0.020369

However, you are correct that the casino could probably offer this game with a small +EV edge and get away with it because a vast majority of players would not follow close to optimal strategy at least in the short term. And true optimal strategy is impossible, but there are learnable strategies that are close. One strategy on the page linked below gives the house a 2.3% edge: http://discountgambling.net/texas-holdem-bonus/

Currently, I wouldn't be shocked if the average player gave 10% or more to the house by playing this game. But the variance in the game still allows these players to occasionally also come away a winner. The same goes for Ultimate Texas Holdem whose strategy is easier/more intuitive, imo.

 09-26-2012, 04:14 PM #73 veteran     Join Date: Nov 2008 Location: Over here Posts: 2,397 Re: Texas Hold'em Bonus - +EV? I have now played this game a lot and watched others and how horrible they play. Flopping pairs and not betting 2x. AA and not 4x bc A's never win!!!! Betting \$5 on ante and blind and \$25 on the trips bet???? I dont get it. But I have played at tables where people have hands like KJ QT KQ A9 and wont bet 4x so I offer to put up 2x and they 2x. Thats a +EV bet for me all day. I dont bet the trips (its the 3% house adv pay table at my casino) but everyone else does and people have bet the trips bet on my hand and give me money if we hit!!! Yesterday a lady put \$5 up and I got a straight and she gave me \$5. I freerolled that bet and hit straight, trips, straight, flush, then quads! That was a fun freeroll for me and the lady next to me made out. Its also nice to know what cards are out. My casino is cracking down on showing cards but they let you say the cards. I think it has to help my EV a bit (I know the math shows that its not a big advantage at all).
 09-26-2012, 04:16 PM #74 Outwit, Outplay, Outlast     Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 5,874 I think you are confusing Texas Hold'em Bonus with Ultimate Texas Hold'em. Very similar games, but different betting structures.
09-26-2012, 04:59 PM   #75
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Re: Texas Hold'em Bonus - +EV?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by accobra_kid I think you are confusing Texas Hold'em Bonus with Ultimate Texas Hold'em. Very similar games, but different betting structures.
yep... I was wondering how I missed a thread for ulitamate TH. Oh well.

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