Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > General Gambling > Other Gambling Games

Notices

Other Gambling Games Discussion about other gambling games.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 05-25-2012, 04:56 PM   #1
newbie
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 32
Scratch Off Tickets

Is it possible to beat them? I saw an android app called Pikatikit which claims it can download information about the remaining prizes and somehow rank the games for each state. Could someone more mathematically inclined tell me if this is possible?
lefunque is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-25-2012, 05:56 PM   #2
old hand
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,299
Re: Scratch Off Tickets

you could always do that by visiting the states lottery website. It is pretty easy to figure out which games have the best prizes remaining.
Barbiaux is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-26-2012, 01:09 AM   #3
Pooh-Bah
 
SheetWise's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Phoenix
Posts: 4,677
Re: Scratch Off Tickets

I wouldn't assume the information the state discloses about winning tickets remaining is accurate -- and I haven't seen any states that disclose the number of tickets remaining.
SheetWise is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-26-2012, 11:48 AM   #4
banned
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: New Haven Ct
Posts: 4,454
Re: Scratch Off Tickets

the only way you can beat them is if you see someone lose like 5 in a row on a ticket, then u jump in front and buy the next 2 and youll probably win.
Mark275 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-26-2012, 01:22 PM   #5
Pooh-Bah
 
SheetWise's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Phoenix
Posts: 4,677
Re: Scratch Off Tickets

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark275 View Post
the only way you can beat them is if you see someone lose like 5 in a row on a ticket, then u jump in front and buy the next 2 and youll probably win.
As ridiculous as the strategy sounds -- there may be a foundation for it. In the past, the distribution of winners in many games has not been random -- the winners were random, but the distribution was governed. Not sure if or who is still doing that.
SheetWise is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-26-2012, 02:16 PM   #6
Pooh-Bah
 
Fubster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 4,260
Re: Scratch Off Tickets

Quote:
Originally Posted by SheetWise View Post
I wouldn't assume the information the state discloses about winning tickets remaining is accurate -- and I haven't seen any states that disclose the number of tickets remaining.
Can't you extrapolate the number of tickets remaining using the published "approximate odds" of holding a winning ticket? The published "approximate odds" change over time.
Fubster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-26-2012, 04:59 PM   #7
banned
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: New Haven Ct
Posts: 4,454
Re: Scratch Off Tickets

I useda buy them by the book and for example if the odds of winning a prize is 1:4.25 and you bought a unopened book of 100 tickets youll get 23- 24 winners guaranteed and this was always the case.

I have won 3 tickets in a row before, lost 17 in a row before, I was a regular and the gas station people useda tell me which books were in good shape(meaning most the book was sold and there were lots of winners left or biggest prize cashed so far was like $50)

i might sound crazy but im right, many yrs of evidence to determine it.
Mark275 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-26-2012, 08:06 PM   #8
grinder
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 652
Re: Scratch Off Tickets

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark275 View Post
I useda buy them by the book and for example if the odds of winning a prize is 1:4.25 and you bought a unopened book of 100 tickets youll get 23- 24 winners guaranteed and this was always the case.

I have won 3 tickets in a row before, lost 17 in a row before, I was a regular and the gas station people useda tell me which books were in good shape(meaning most the book was sold and there were lots of winners left or biggest prize cashed so far was like $50)

i might sound crazy but im right, many yrs of evidence to determine it.
how much did the book for 100 net you?
blah45 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-27-2012, 01:41 AM   #9
Pooh-Bah
 
SheetWise's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Phoenix
Posts: 4,677
Re: Scratch Off Tickets

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fubster View Post
Can't you extrapolate the number of tickets remaining using the published "approximate odds" of holding a winning ticket? The published "approximate odds" change over time.
I'm not sure how all states do it. I've looked at the local AZ site and it offers very little -- it tells how many tickets remain, but not how many there were. It's all a bit sketchy. I've read several comparison reports on all state lotteries, and it's clear that most, if not all, are similarly opaque -- always many pages of footnotes explaining the accounting discrepancies.
SheetWise is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-27-2012, 06:47 AM   #10
King of the sidebar
 
Neil S's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 15,953
Re: Scratch Off Tickets

I doubt they can really track how many tickets remain, since they sell them in batches, and unknown quantities of those batches are remaining to be sold under store counters.
Neil S is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-27-2012, 09:46 AM   #11
newbie
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 32
Re: Scratch Off Tickets

Shouldn't they be able to infer the rolls which have been sold by the winner codes which are redeemed? I guess the answer is they probably just don't care that much. Anyway, just for giggles I followed Pikatikit's advice last night and bought a couple of the best-ranked $20 game for Virginia and scored a $200 winner. I know, small sample size, but still promising...
lefunque is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-27-2012, 09:53 AM   #12
old hand
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,299
Re: Scratch Off Tickets

The app or even just looking at their websites may not give you the exact current odds but it definitely gives you a small advantage. If you walk into a store and they have 25 games to pick from and you just pick based on what looks fun you may be picking a game where the top prizes are all gone. At least by looking at their websites you can make an informed decision on which games have the most prizes remaining.
Barbiaux is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-27-2012, 09:57 AM   #13
Pooh-Bah
 
SheetWise's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Phoenix
Posts: 4,677
Re: Scratch Off Tickets

Quote:
Originally Posted by Neil S View Post
I doubt they can really track how many tickets remain, since they sell them in batches, and unknown quantities of those batches are remaining to be sold under store counters.
The sale of tickets are recorded by UPC scans -- so I believe they can track them, and that the information is available to some people -- they just don't share it with the public in any transparent way.

I was thinking about the comment Mark275 made about buying a brick of tickets. The way they used to be sold here, the retailer would buy a $500 brick that had $150 in small winners for ~$300 -- and tickets had to be redeemed where they were purchased. The difference accounted for the retail commission. That system was gamed for years (plus, unredeemed tickets accrued to the benefit of the retailer instead of the state), so it was eventually changed.

Like all things the state attempts, their lotteries are FUBAR -- and I have no doubt there are investment opportunities -- I just wouldn't trust much of the public information to be complete, timely, or accurate.

Last edited by SheetWise; 05-27-2012 at 10:03 AM.
SheetWise is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-27-2012, 03:23 PM   #14
adept
 
opla's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: MN
Posts: 748
Re: Scratch Off Tickets

This story provides zero meaningfulness and a fairly small sample size..

After high school I worked overnights in a gas station and I'd see so many degenerates buying tickets. Tons of people would buy them and scratch off right there, turn around and put right back in.

After awhile I noticed that one game always had a $50 winner in the last three tickets of the roll. The guy I worked with starting splitting it and we'd always buy the end of a roll of that ticket. He'd actually push that ticket to people looking to buy or drunks even just coming in for smokes or whatever just to get closer to the end.

We never hit a bigger ticket. It was always a $50 winner and once we got a $100. After cost and some putting it back into similar tickets to see if others were like that which we didn't find any other games at the end, we made out with an extra $500 or so each.
opla is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-29-2012, 11:35 PM   #15
newbie
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 39
Re: Scratch Off Tickets

In certain jurisdictions, it's legal for places to sell private (i.e. not state run) lottery tickets. Generally they're called pull tab, punch card, "pickle cards," or a variety of other names. With these tickets, the merchant buys a block of tickets, perhaps 2500 of them, and there are a specific number of each prize in each block of tickets. So if you know how many of each ticket have been pulled, you can estimate what's left. I..e if out of the 2500 tickets, 2000 have been sold but the biggest prize hasn't been sold, you know the biggest prize is still remaining. No way to get rich off of these though because the biggest prize is usually $100, or perhaps $250 at most.
quadsevens is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off



All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:05 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2013, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Content Relevant URLs by vBSEO 3.6.0 ©2011, Crawlability, Inc.
Copyright © 2008-2010, Two Plus Two Interactive