Anyone else playing? Better to pick #s or have it machine generated?

Machine. Less chance of splitting with someone who picked your numbers.

Pick high numbers. People like to play dates, so theres a lot of tickets out there with numbers less than 32. Less chance of a split that way.

Gotta put at least $20 on this. I'll spend the same on something stupid I really don't need anyway, might as well take a chance right?

You always hear this thrown out. I know statistically each # has the same odds of being selected, but when was the last drawing that had all numbers > 32?

it's not that high numbers have more or a less chance of being selected during the drawing. i believe koss was just saying that if lightning strikes and your #s get drawn you are marginally less likely to split the jackpot.

11/21/2015.

The powerball only goes to 26, that is for all the other numbers.

Several times a year it hits all numbers over 32 except the powerball, which only went up to 35 historically. But since October the Powerball now only goes up to 26. So it was rarely over 32 before, and now never.

But all including the powerball were over 32 on 3/7/2015.

http://www.powerball.com/powerball/p...=11%2F1%2F1997

bullet-proof strat...

If you play the lottery regularly, lottery expert Richard Lustig recommends that you pick your own numbers and stick to that same combination every time you play. For players who are only drawn in with extreme jackpots, Lustig has one tip.

"The only advice I can really give people is buy as many tickets as you can afford," Lustig said.

Thats why I throw $4 down. I wouldnt notice it missing, but I will notice 800mil, so ev is infinite.

I wonder how much mario is putting down.

As per the article linked below, at $1.3 billion Powerball tickets are still a negative expectation bet. Assuming a lump sum payment and considering taxes, the breakeven point on a ticket is an astounding $1,583,657,489.42 prize pool.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/accord...172103730.html

any tips to play from outside us ?

there seem to be a couple of options

you can go via an agency whereby you actually get a physical ticket purchased on your behalf, scanned in and e-mailed to you. If you win a small prize they cash it in and pay you, if you win a large prize they apparently fly you over to the US.

https://www.thelotter.com/lottery-ti...usa-powerball/

alternatively you can place a side bet on it:

https://www.lottoland.com/en

some company in Gibraltar - claiming they're audited by KPMG... basically your bet is with them and they'll mimick the prize structure, for smaller amounts they're essentially taking on the risk and for larger amounts they're claiming to be insured...


the other hypothetical issue with them if you were to win the jackpot is their T&Cs mean they are deducting 35% to reflect US withholding taxes you'd (according to them) pay on a real ticket... yet if you bought a real ticket via an agent based in Florida(no state tax) you'd only pay 30% Federal withholding taxes and if you were living in a country with a US tax treaty you'd presumably be able to claim those back(I think?)

I think getting an actual physical ticket is maybe better - though lottoland is offering a free ticket.

1,3 billion. omfg.

Would anybody here be kind enough to take the time to give a dumbed down explanation of what exactly "hot" and "cold" numbers are...and if it really is any indication of a pattern or just random chance? I Thought the theory says every draw that happens is independent of the last one. If that's true, then isn't spending a great deal of time trying to narrow down the range of numbers that will appear on wed draw futile?

This is a case where utility matters more than a pure dollar EV.

no idea re: any bias towards particular numbers being drawn

tis probably better to assume each number has the same chance of being drawn - one thing you could do with lotteries to increase your EV slightly is picking higher numbers (>31) because a significant portion of lottery players will play their 'lucky numbers' including memorable dates etc.. lower numbers have a higher chance of sharing the jackpot thus a lower (or more negative) EV.

For example the #1 hasn't been drawn once in the last 50 draws, according to my research. Does that make it a cold number? Does it mean its more likely tll be drawn on Wednesday, or it makes no difference?

It makes no difference. "Hot and cold" are hindsight descriptions only. The mistaken belief that they affect future events is called the Gambler's Fallacy.

That's what I was afraid of...so would you agree that trying to identify a discernible pattern is at best futile?

The patterns of 2/3 3/2 even/odd have been followed however. The last couple of draws fit into that framework, and according to stats accounts for 70% of all lotto draws. That framework in of itself should narrow down the range at least somewhat, albeit miniscule.

My understanding of expected utility theory is not 100%, but from my understanding expected utility can explain why individuals may choose to make -ev gambles, but it doesn't turn those -ev gambles into either +ev gambles or "good" choices.

So if spending $2 on the infinitesimal chance of being a pre-tax billionaire provides you a thrill that spending $2 on the infinitesimal chance of winning $800 million before taxes doesn't carry, then the bet will be worth it to you for non-gambling reasons. The bet, however, is still not a "good gamble"/ financial investment.

Is any a good financial investment in the end? There's no thrill in me playing, I want to win so I don't have to work ****ty jobs anymore and can pay for a doctor.

it is probably best to assume each number has the same chance of being drawn

the reason you'd not want to chose some numbers or number combinations in lotteries is because it is more likely others have chosen them (thus increasing the chance of splitting a jackpot) not because any particular number or number combination is any more or less likely to be drawn

Picking numbers not to split is pointless in a powerball situation.

Not quite. Basically, the concept of utility redefines what is "good."

You will never reach the long run when it comes to the lottery, so your actual results will never equal EV. Among a lottery-playing population, you'll have millions slightly below EV and one vastly above EV. The concept of utility means that it doesn't really make a difference whether you're $1 poorer than EV, but you're very happy being $1,299,999,999 above EV. The bet is utility+/EV-.

Now, if you go out and buy 10,000 lottery tickets, the situation is different. You're still very happy being $1,299,990,000 above EV, but you're now significantly unhappy about being $10,000 poorer than EV. The bet is utility-/EV-.

To be complete, imagine a reverse lottery. One player is selected from several hundred million, and his/her assets are seized and distributed among the others. To encourage people to participate, the government throws an extra $1,000,000 into the pool. So you have a 99.999999% chance of ending up a few cents richer, and a 0.000001% chance of having everything taken away from you. This would be a utility-/EV+ game that nobody would play.