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BJ Early surrender with a 20 v. 10 up BJ Early surrender with a 20 v. 10 up

07-14-2008 , 10:07 AM
A local casino is offering early surrender if you have a 20 against a dealer's 10 up (not a Blackjack). You have the option of taking an "automatic win" for half of your bet.

This seems grossly -EV as you are only taking half of a win when the dealer has a T up and does NOT have blackjack.

Anyone know how or where to find EV calculations for this variable? Just off the top of my head it seems to be a bad deal but mathematical confirmation is always nice.
BJ Early surrender with a 20 v. 10 up Quote
07-14-2008 , 11:30 AM
it's not grossly -EV, but the house makes more when you surrender 20 v 10.

standing, you will win about 0.55 units per 1 unit bet.
"surrender" you will win 0.50 units per 1 unit bet.

I think the mentality is not that players are worried about the dealer drawing to 21, but that they will push and not "win" anything. same reason why some are more inclined to take insurance when they themselves have blackjack ("even money") than in other cases.

it's possible this proposition may be useful for card counters since it involves predicting a 10-valued card, but I wouldn't know how to analyze it thoroughly.
BJ Early surrender with a 20 v. 10 up Quote
07-14-2008 , 11:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by playersare
it's not grossly -EV, but the house makes more when you surrender 20 v 10.

standing, you will win about 0.55 units per 1 unit bet.
"surrender" you will win 0.50 units per 1 unit bet.

I think the mentality is not that players are worried about the dealer drawing to 21, but that they will push and not "win" anything. same reason why some are more inclined to take insurance when they themselves have blackjack ("even money") than in other cases.

it's possible this proposition may be useful for card counters since it involves predicting a 10-valued card, but I wouldn't know how to analyze it thoroughly.
Yeah, I think it is designed to give the recreational players the feeling of a guaranteed win over a push.

You are right in that I think counters can derive some sort of edge by taking a "half-win" when the count is high enough to flip the EV of taking this option over playing it outright. It would be interesting to see if this is calculable (which I'm sure it is).
BJ Early surrender with a 20 v. 10 up Quote

      
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