Sorry to hear you burned that bridge It would be nice to attend the July 6 gathering, but the Mensa AG is in Reno on the 4-8th -- so that's a no-go. Please do call when you're in the area.

Im a noob in sportsbetting first off.
but question:

How do you start to narrow in on a specific event where you see potential +EV?
Given all the various events/games how do you know when the book makers seem to be somewhat out of line on a specific outcome?

Also you mentioned you dont watch the games. Do you track strictly W/L records of the teams? Or just use W/L records as a starting point?

What about races (horse)?

As far as trends go, I started by looking at all of the "conventional wisdom" and soon realized that the market already reflected most of that information -- at least the parts of it that were true. Not to say that this information isn't valuable -- because bettors often ignore it -- but you also need to "find" what the majority of others are not looking at. It's often slim pickings. As far as specific events, they will jump out at you. If your model has a team picked -6 and the line is +8, it will sharpen your senses.

They're out of line, in my opinion, when their book disagrees with me There are books scattered throughout the Caribbean, West Indies, and in most offshore financial centers -- and they all have trusted clients. Collectively, their clients frequently have common loyalties and that sometimes presents opportunities. Sometimes it just depends how high you are on their list of people to call.

I love to know what other people look at, but I rarely get into conversations about what I look at or post picks for obvious reasons. I can tell you that W/L records are not even considered in my model, I find them to be meaningless. Maybe that's why I don't watch the games -- or, at least I haven't since Favre left the Packers

I don't regularly handicap races looking for opportunities. There's a lot of skill in the game, but there's also a huge "human" factor, and even if that wasn't true it would be nearly impossible to beat the vig. OTOH -- some of my friends have horses and love the game, so an occasional opening day or feature race is hard to resist. That grapevine also brings my attention to large carry-over pools and other opportunities, so I occasionally take a long look.

This isn't my usual sub forum but I have really enjoyed this well..

However I'm going to ask the biggest newb question, how is blackjack beatable isn't the whole point of these casinos to make money so they offer games and in my local one display their edges in tiny % s ?

Is there ever a valid reason for a TGS to "diddle the discards" (remove the discards and turn his back to the players)?

If a person is flat betting and/or not counting then the casino does have a edge.

Haven't been to this subforum but glad I browsed. Subscribed! You are clearly a legend

Also thought of a question. What do you think of Steve Wynn? To me he's a legend and I have the utmost respect for the work he's done on the properties he's been involved with. His attention to detail is something amazing and being an observant person I'm in awe. I know little about his personal life or if he's a nice guy but what do you know about him, I know he's got a temper.

haha +1

Not in my world -- the entire deck should always be visible. This has obviously changed over the years with shuffling machines and CSMs taking most or all of the deck out of sight most of the time -- but these devices are licensed and approved. I can't think of any reason for a supervisor to shield cards. Either remove the entire deck or play.

Did you ever shuffle track? Hole card? Ace track?

I like just about everything I know about him. Visionary would be my description. I don't like the fact that almost everyone with less vision and talent used his properties as their template -- but that's not his fault.

I agree. I think Wynn and Harrah are the most responsible for how Vegas looks today. Unfortunately so much of the city is a cheap knock-off, and not up to the standards they set and maintained. The industry needs more visionaries and fewer imitators. I think Steve Wynn would agree that more diversity would be good for the business as a whole.

I was hoping to meet with him through a mutual friend when they were breaking ground on his current property, but the meeting couldn't be arranged -- and after the property opened, I didn't pursue it. I have never met him. As far as his temper, I have no idea -- but I can't imagine playing the hands he's played without leaving a lot hidden and plenty for people to talk about

Always, when the opportunity is there.