From my perspective, the Martingale system only fails:

1) player lacks self discipline to quit while ahead

2) player has too little money to continue doubling losing bets

I have 9 friends including myself that are planning to chip in 10k each. We would have 100k. Now we won't play until everything is gone (we have a mental stop loss around 50k)

Sure, if we lost 9 times right out of the gate, it would be like a lightning bolt moment proving that none of us should ever play again, lol.

But it seems that with a lot of self discipline and a willingness to walk away, it is conceivable that we would find ourselves up 5k at some point in almost every session with the ability to cash out and make 500 each per session.

What is the downside here? If the player cashed out everytime he was up 5k would the casino prevent him from playing again in the future? Is the only risk (albeit, the ultimate risk) that the player would in fact lose 8-9 times in a row and probably be forced to stop with a big loss? Just curious what some of your thoughts are on this.

The one time you lose cleans you out.

Run it through a BJ simulator and you'll go broke every time.

you're gonna feel kinda silly betting $50,000 to win $100 at one point. No the casino wont kick you out for quitting while you're ahead, but basically you might as well say "im gonna make a living playing roulette. All I have to do is run hot!" Do the math, it doesnt take very many consecutive losses to lose it all quickly.

[QUOTE=paulee;20344638]The one time you lose cleans you out.

.....

You're right -- it's pretty easy to win 5k each time at a casino, that's why everyone who goes to vegas for a 3 day trip leaves up about 15k.

Another martingale genius.

what about table max. you can't just keep doubling your bet because there is a ceiling. And they are not going to raise it just because 10 people are there sweating and crying because they can't make the next bet.

You can move to a table with a higher limit to increase the spread -- you can actually get a fairly large number of wagers in a martingale by simply moving up in stakes. It won't help you win, but it can delay the inevitable loss by making the loss larger

only advice i can give is to expect to lose. seriously if you could beat the casino, wouldnt people not work??? And whats going to happen when you bet $50,000 to win a mere nothing lol. IDK I can't see many people being able to bet 25k or 50k on a hand of blackjack

OP, I hope this post is tongue in cheek. You do not change -EV into +EV by doubling your bet. Losing 9 in a row (or whatever) is not that unusual. Heck, you can easily lose 4 on the first hand with split, double, double. The Martingale is a shockingly stupid way to play.

Stupid question:

So if you bet martingale...

You bet 5, lose so you bet 10, lose so you bet 20 and win. Is your next bet 5?

Yes, but you're better off betting 5 5 5 5

You are expected to lose 9 hands in a row after just two hours of play. And when you consider hands where you are essentially forced to split, then you realize that this strategy is likely to fail even faster.

100k is a lot of money. With this much money there are many ways you can effectively exploit weaknesses in house games. Martingaling is not one of them. In fact it is one of the best ways to lose all your money as quickly as possible.

Actually you're better off betting 5 15 5 50 25 100 20 20 10

[QUOTE=Tmoney1130;20344727] To clarify, the one time you lose 9 in a row it will clean you out. and you WILL lose 9 times in a row eventually.

Martingale is a losing system.

Blackjack, with the splitting and such is the LAST game I would take on with a martingale.

You got that right. You shouldn't even bet full Kelly in BJ, or even half Kelly for that matter. I think most pros play something like 1/3 Kelly.

1/2 Kelly is safe in a good game.

as Colin Cowherd would say, this is a "say it out loud" question:

"Me and my friends have $100k to gamble/burn/invest..."
stop right there. why in the hell would your next statement be:
"Shouldn't we gamble it away using a system proven to fail?"

Don't mean to derail but could you please explain. Was this serious or were you just making random bets.

I am very curious

this is how you martingale

every now and then ill take $130 to the baccarat table and martingale on player. its kindof fun to see how far you can get. usually it will be $141 though since im more likely to have $20s then $10s and probably got a $1 scrunched up in some pocket. the extra $1 has some significance since i can add to 3 steps right off the bat.

i do steps with a progression of 1-3-7-15-31-63-127 and so forth. usually i find a $5 table so my progression would be $5-$15-$35-$75. when i win money i add it to the martingale until i have enough to build another step.

so lets say i buyin for $130 and i win my first bet for $5. then my bets would probably be $6-$18-$35-$76. say i then lose a hand and win a hand. im up $17 total now so my bets would be $7-$21-$42-$77. say i lose a hand and win a hand, im up $31 total now. my bets would be $7-$21-$49-$91. if i then LLW, id be up $52 now so my bets would be $7-$21-$49-$105.

when im up at least $155, ill create a 5th step and my new progression will be $5-$15-$35-$75-$155. i dont really like dropping my bet back down to $5 though since it takes so long to build a 6th step so when i get to plus at least $155, ill usually keep my other bets at $6-$18-$42-$90 and drop the rest into a 5th stack for my final bet. whenever i win chips, i just add it to that final bet until it reaches $186. then start building each step again.

if im on the 4th step in the progression. i make a plan ahead of time in case i lose that bet but win the bet on my 4th step. i know i need at least $285 to have a progression of $5-$15-$35-$75-$155. so i plan ahead on that final bet, figuring out how much ill have if i win that bet. take that amount and divide it by 26 and round down so i know what my initial bet would be in a 4step progression and repeat my steps above once im up at least $155. if im somewhat close to $285 like $281, ill do a 5step progression of $5-$15-$35-$75-X where X is whatevers left for the final bet. then fill in that final bet before adding to my other steps.

theres a lot of constantly adjusting your bets so what i do is make 4 stacks of bets. when i win i make a stack behind of each of these stacks. and may make some stacks in behind those stacks too. when i have enough to increase my front stacks by $1, $3, $7, and $15, i will place those chips onto my front stacks. i might have 1-3 spare chips i put to the side too which ill probably end up tacking onto the final bet in my steps. theres lots of room at the baccarat table so feel free to do whatevers easiest for you.

And that is why gambling can be fun.

so any good stories on how this martingale play worked? I've never played baccarat and have no idea how to play but isn't the casino edge not too huge in it?

Question:

Answer: