You don't have stop losses?

Well, OK then.

Pass Line on a come out roll, and then max odds. Those are the only bets you should make. And by 'should' I mean it's the least -ev way to play craps.

Playing the odds doesn't change the EV. It's a 0EV bet on top of the negative EV first bet. The only effect is to allow more action for free, essentially just increasing bankroll variance.

well, it allows you to play for the same amount of money with a smaller house edge. If you want to play for roughly 50 bucks per roll, you should play 10 on the pass line with odds instead of 50 on the pass line without odds. Lowers the house edge in relative terms, not absolute

Correct, which doesn't contadict what I said.

Wouldn't the Don't Pass with odds be slightly lower HE?

Yes. People despise the dark side. You'll hear many snide remarks from all people. If you wish to go this path, you're better off not saying a word.

Taking odds is just a compounding error. You make a mistake, making a negative EV bet, and then you compound your mistake by making a 0 EV bet and incurring needless variance with no upside.

Yes, but the topic was EV. Which doesn't change.

Needless variance is the upside.

Yes it is, about 50% of the time.

I'm not super savvy on calculating HE/EV, but this statement is inaccurate, right?

House Edge is the percent of money wagered that the house will win on average. Expected Value is a dollar amount that a bet will lose or win, on average. Odds bets have no effect on EV. They affect the relative house edge, because you are now wagering a higher amount but with the exact same expected dollar loss. You've just changed the denominator (amount wagered) but not the average outcome. Odds bets have an average outcome of zero.

His statement was completely accurate.

An equivalent situation would be, you place your craps bet, then before the roll you grab a passerby and agree to a fair coin flip bet for some multiple of your craps bet. That's what odds bets are. They are a maximum variance bet (i.e. coin flip) with EV of $0 and no effect on your original craps bet.

Technically EV changes because EV is defined by expected winnings divided by amount bet. If you increase the amount bet, EV goes down, but win rate stays comstant.

A high stakes recreational/losing poker player has a chance to check behind or make a million dollar river bet. If we calculate/let him know that both plays have the same long term expectation should he make the shove to lower the pro's house edge per dollar wagered.

That's the general argument/discussion wrt a losing dice player taking/not taking big odds.

This is just semantics now as I know you get it, but the definition in gambling is usually EV = win probability times amount wagered. Put another way, it's the average dollar amount a specific bet will yield. What you have above is a calculation of a return on investment (with no units, they cancel). But EV is an amount of money, in dollars.

I've never played craps either but read this thread a few hours ago then got online and play play money craps, and now im completely hooked on play money craps. I might keep this game at play money lol man that's addictive

So I played my play money craps game some, and im not sure if I'd even have that much fun with craps. I hear the stories about people turning 500 bucks into 30k, but the only big multiplier bets are those crazy first roll bets, so when people make money like that, aren't they risking really large amounts? It looks like a lot of the stuff pays between 1 and 2-1. Basically, what bets are people usually making when they make huge scores at craps? I know it varies, but there's no way it's usually those 30 times first roll bets

This is not true. Let's say you bet $10 on come out. Lands on 4.

If you don't take the odds, then you've wagered $10 to win $10 on a 33% chance. That's a terrible wager.

Let's assume 5x max odds. So you put $50 on 4.

Now you've wagered $60 to win $110 on a 33% chance. That is significantly better than not taking the odds.

As independent events, it just increases variance for a coin flip. However when made it conjunction with your pass bet it lowers the HE of the pass bet...this is the reason casinos has max odds.

Finish your comparison. The coin flip exactly the same in average outcomes.

In one case you're down $x after wagering $10. In the other case you're down the same $x after wagering $60.

So you're losing a lot less per dollar wagered if you take the odds.

That last sentence is correct, but was not my point that you contradicted.

The odds bet has an average result of $0. The coin flip also has an average result of $0. They are both max variance bets, with 0 EV. But the original craps bet has an expected loss, and that expected loss dollar amount doesn't change if you take odds, or if you do a side bet on a coin, or if you do neither. Your average dollar loss is exactly the same in all three cases. You have simply put more money into play (for free) with no change in EV or average result whatsoever.

And yes, I understand that if you set aside part of your desired wager amount and use it for odds bets, instead of wagering more for odds bets, then your cost to play goes down per dollar wagered. That's the benefit of the odds bet, to use it for a portion of your desired wagering to begin with, rather than using it to put more money in play (and at risk) which only increases variance with no benefit.

But that didn't seem to be your point when you contradicted my original post.

It is a 50% chance!!!

You've wagered $10 to win $10 at a cost of $0.14, whether you take odds or not. After a point of 4, you now have a 33.3% chance of winning, and you might regret having bet the $10, but there's nothing you can do about it at this point (the house won't let you remove your line bet). Your odds bet has a cost of $0.

Neither the line bet nor the odds bet has a "50% chance," no matter how many exclamation points you use. The line bet has a 49.3% chance and the odds bet (after a point of 4) has a 33.3% chance.

How to play Craps.

1. Decide how much you want to bet on craps in your lifetime.

2. Put as much as possible on the best bets.

For example Harrah's Joliet offers 500x odds.

Bet $10 on the pass line and $5000 on the free odds.

You will lose on average 1.4% of your pass line bet. (about 14 cents).

If you bet the Don't you'll lose 1.36% on average.