The Michigan Lottery +EV thread - Page 4 - Other Gambling Games Forum

You can make a very good estimate knowing that 1 in 2.74 was a winner when the game began; a 30K sample of winners will still be reasonably close to that ratio. You could argue that maybe there are only 75K tickets left (1 in 2.5 being winners) or as many as 90K (1 in 3) but you can be 99.9% sure the actual amount doesn't deviate much more than that.

Wow

So you really wanna argue that it's 99.9% to be 90k or less?

Show your work?

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08-15-2011 , 08:10 PM

#77

__w__

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 3,640

Quote:

Originally Posted by twoblack9s

Correct me if I'm wrong on this. But basically the only way you are going to make money on this if you hit one of two 500k prizes. The EV of the ticket is all based on this. So really it is not worth going out and buying a significant amount of these because your chance is still 2 in (however many thousand) that you'll make any really money. As someone pointed out earlier the EV without the two top prizes is about $6 (and change). So I just really don't get the point of going out of your way to buy these.

Since this is ultimately a poker forum, I'm gonna use a poker analogy. It's kinda like playing a tournament. You can be the best poker player in the world, but if you don't bink the big ones from time to time, you're gonna go broke playing tournaments. Whether the payout is top heavy or not changes nothing in terms of EV.

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08-15-2011 , 08:42 PM

#78

msufan

adept

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 735

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nicholasp27

Wow

So you really wanna argue that it's 99.9% to be 90k or less?

Show your work?

http://www.shodor.org/interactivate/activities/AdjustableSpinner/

1. Set blue to 36.49635% of the spinner surface (that's ~1/2.74)

2. Make the other colors add up to the other 63.50365%.

3. Set the simulator to run 90,000 spins (which it can do in like a second).

4. Do you have more than 30K spins that are blue?

You will, every time, and it's not even close.

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08-16-2011 , 09:47 AM

#79

msufan

adept

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 735

Big day today -- no one claimed a big prize yesterday, and Monday is the biggest day for prize claims after the offices aren't open on the weekend.

So here come the new EV calcs.

Prizes remaining:

2 $500,000
3 $1,000
54 $200
97 $100
230 $75
204 $60
591 $50
785 $40
3,913 $30
4,527 $20
6,764 $15
13,358 $10

Total prizes remaining: 30,528
Estimated tickets remaining: 83,647
Total value of prizes remaining: $1,556,910
EV per $10 ticket: $18.61

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08-16-2011 , 10:54 AM

#80

RollWave

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 12,570

Quote:

Originally Posted by msufan

You will, every time, and it's not even close.

this contradicts your claim that it is 99.9%, it doesn't prove it.

Quote

08-16-2011 , 11:20 AM

#81

msufan

adept

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 735

Quote:

Originally Posted by RollWave

this contradicts your claim that it is 99.9%, it doesn't prove it.

NVG is to your left.

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08-16-2011 , 11:26 AM

#82

tompakee

banned

Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 1,201

Sickening to think that even if you hit a big win you lose on taxes....What % of winnings would you have to pay in taxes? In europe lottery wininnings/gambling winnings are all tax free. One couple recently won £161 million pounds sterling (roughly $265 million) and never paid a penny in tax.

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08-16-2011 , 12:59 PM

#83

RollWave

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Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 12,570

Quote:

Originally Posted by msufan

NVG is to your left.

So here's how it went:
msufan - 99.9% of the time...
nich - I think you made that number up, prove it.
msufan - here is proof, see every time...
rollwave - wait a second, your proof is not proof at all, not to mention that you mysteriously changed the 99.9% to 'every time'
msufan - fu

I would argue that the person making up statistics and posting shoddy proofwork is much worse than those that call him out for it. If you had merely responded to nich by saying, 'the 99.9% was just an estimate used hyperbolically' that would have ended things. But that you attempted and failed to quantify yourself, you dug your own hole.

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08-16-2011 , 01:26 PM

#84

msufan

adept

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 735

Quote:

Originally Posted by RollWave

Please stop. The other guy actually said he thought there could still realistically be 300K tickets out there. He's wrong. I think you agree with me on that but are trying to be witty about whether we can know that to 99.9% certainty or 99.999% certainty or whatever. The 99.9% number is a conservative estimate. Feel free to provide the actual % if you know it.

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08-16-2011 , 02:27 PM

#85

rwesty

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 1,743

i'm not sure how to calculate kelly for multiple payouts but if you simplify it to a $3.342 ticket that pays out $500,000 every 2/83646 times it looks like for that you would need a $152,000 bankroll...

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08-16-2011 , 02:40 PM

#86

msufan

adept

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 735

Quote:

Originally Posted by rwesty

That sounds right. Time to refinance...

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08-16-2011 , 05:49 PM

#87

dbcooper279

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 1,678

It would be interesting to see someone buy a whole ton of tickets (say 10k tix), then win one of the $500k jackpots after they scratch-off ticket number 15 of 10k. The remaining 9985 tickets have just become -EV, so the best play would be to sell them off at a discount ($9 for a $10 ticket). My though is now, "Who in the hell would buy lottery tickets at a discount from some random guy?" My first thoughts would be scam, or that the guy selling them just did the same thing I proposed and the EV of the ticket is not much more than the paper it is printed on.

Last edited by dbcooper279; 08-16-2011 at 06:00 PM.

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08-16-2011 , 06:11 PM

#88

NajdorfDefense

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Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 17,563

Many charities buy and sell back the unused ones to the State. Fundraisers, et al.

Hell, half the neighborhoods in Philly if you were to sell $10 tix for $9 you'd be sold out before the end of Shawn Carter's new album.

Quote

08-16-2011 , 06:14 PM

#89

Barbiaux

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 1,426

Quote:

Originally Posted by dbcooper279

That would be my luck. I don't think anyone would spend 100k without scratching them off first. If someone was actually going through with this and seeking them out I would think you would scratch them while still there and cash in what you had in winnings.

Quote

08-16-2011 , 06:25 PM

#90

zioxcult

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 337

Quote:

Originally Posted by tompakee

One interesting thing about the inspiration for OP in the Massachusetts +EV lottery is that the people doing it incorporated themselves instead of acting as individuals playing the lottery. They called themselves something along the line of 'Strategic Investments Inc', and in every other story about people finding a +EV lottery and spending ridiculous money, they do the same.

I don't understand the specific on how that helps, but since they're smart enough to figure out their plan and execute it, we can assume they know what they're doing regarding the tax laws too.

Quote

08-16-2011 , 08:04 PM

#91

msufan

adept

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 735

Quote:

Originally Posted by dbcooper279

Interestingly, you could win a $500K prize and the remaining tickets would STILL be significantly +EV!

Quote

08-16-2011 , 08:07 PM

#92

msufan

adept

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 735

Quote:

Originally Posted by zioxcult

yeah, this would be very smart. In MI if you win $700K but spend $600K, you can't deduct the 600K on your state taxes -- only your federal. Incorporating would fix that. And connecting lots of potential buyers together is smart too. A bunch of us should do that for this.

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08-16-2011 , 09:05 PM

#93

__w__

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 3,640

Quote:

Originally Posted by msufan

Still have to find the tickets, and this state is HUGE. I did some calling and stopping today and struck out.

Quote

08-17-2011 , 12:47 AM

#94

msufan

adept

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 735

Quote:

Originally Posted by __w__

Still have to find the tickets, and this state is HUGE. I did some calling and stopping today and struck out.

a buddy of mine was excited to find a gas station that still had some... until they realized they had just 2 left. He bought the two tickets and broke even.

There's 1 less store with Classic Black left...

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08-18-2011 , 02:35 PM

#95

4CardGrind

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 1,579

very difficult to locate tickets, any ideas on this? I got 10k in pocket ready to buy up classic black in metro detroit today and can't find any...

Quote

08-18-2011 , 02:53 PM

#96

msufan

adept

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 735

Quote:

Originally Posted by 4CardGrind

very difficult to locate tickets, any ideas on this? I got 10k in pocket ready to buy up classic black in metro detroit today and can't find any...

I am guessing rural areas would sell out more slowly than urban areas. Grab a phone book and start calling convenience stores one after the other?

Most important, GOOD LUCK!! Trip report needed if you find tix, win or lose!!

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08-18-2011 , 03:05 PM

#97

rwesty

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 1,743

Many places send back older tickets and get them replaced with new games so there may be way less than 80,000 tickets out there. I read an article a while back about some guy buying up a bunch of tickets but the state never gave out the top prizes because of that reason... I think he sued the state but I don't know the verdict... and can't find the article.

Quote

08-18-2011 , 03:15 PM

#98

4CardGrind

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 1,579

Quote:

Originally Posted by msufan

yeah had tried calling places already, 0/15, the tickets sold back to the state, where do you suppose they go? or do they just get voided

Quote

08-18-2011 , 03:32 PM

#99

rwesty

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 1,743

I would assume they get voided, but I'm not positive.

Anyone know how much a telemarketing survey would cost going out to about 10k numbers?

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08-18-2011 , 06:29 PM

#100

NajdorfDefense

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I would also guess sold back and voided by small mom n pop shops in poor neighborhoods/less gaming ones where people don't buy $10 scratchoffs.

frownyface.jpg

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