Hoping for a trip report on a half million score.

+1 That would be wild. If it is does happen let me be the first to say pics or gtfo

If there are really only 80k tickets left and the site is correct that there are 2 500k tickets left 1 in 40k chance are pretty decent odds for a half mil.

Yeah, I'm hoping this thread ends with me or another 2+2er winning big.

About those odds: let's say you have $1000 to throw at this. You could buy 100 $10 tickets. But it looks like you're going to win back about 2/3 of your money even assuming you don't hit a half million (non-jackpot prizes of $577K on $870K in tix). So if you keep playing with whatever you win, the $1000 will actually let you play about $3000 worth of tickets. So for $1000, you get 300/86,000 tickets remaining, for about a 1/287 chance of getting any one particular prize. With 2 $500K tickets out there, your $1K basically will have about a 1/143 chance of winning half a million!

That's impressive.

I am going to have to stop reading this thread or i am going to end up in michigan this weekend

Don't players have 180 days to cash tickets? On big wins, I would expect winners to do some tax planning. The prizes may not still be available -- they may just be unreported.

To OP, how does this game compare to the other games on the site? If they all look +EV, then either something is wrong with your interpretation, or like SheetWise said, there may be a bias towards not turning in winners immediately.

If all the other games all look hugely -EV, then maybe you're onto something with this one, but I'd still be worried about some kind of catch.

Hate to be bearish on it, I would just hate to see you spend money on it and end up paying the usual 50% lotto vig.

That's the risk, yes. But it's interesting to note that most of the other games have the top prizes claimed already.

The other games all look -EV like you'd expect.

Where do you see this at? I have looked around to verify it and I cant find it. I just want to make sure its not an annuity.

I just checked a bunch of the other games -- a couple were close to breakeven but vast majority were very -EV. There are also several with the grand prize cashed pretty early on. I think the fact that some of the smallest winning tickets will never be redeemed helps the EV too.

Its such huge variance that it probably isnt worth my time or money but I think this is pretty interesting.

Wow these are scratch offs huh

Should go to Michigan with ~9k prolly

Jeezums, would seem like such an idiot

Or like a genius ...

Think about telling my gf
Hey going to Michigan got a hot tip on some lottery tickets

Then ask to borrow 800k... "because it's a sure thing honey".

you only need 300K

This would be my guess. If you have 180-364 days turn in a winner there is a significant nonzero chance that someone, esp older, may cash it in next year and not work in 2012+, no reason to add it to income this year if you don't have to. But we have no way of knowing.

I can't find that either. And they have $1mm games, do we think they are handing out $1mm cash to some of these winners? Surely there'd be articles about this.

Actually, when you win -- they do pay in cash (based upon the rules). They usually will try to withhold ~40% for taxes. Be aware that they will also check for unpaid taxes, unpaid child support, outstanding warrants, tickets, etc ... after all, this is a game run by the state. If you have any problems in these areas -- especially taxes and moneys due to the state -- expect maximum penalties to be imposed before any payment is made.

Really giving scratch off lotto ticket players alot of credit huh

Guaranteed 95%+ All have near heart attacks, snap quit there jobs and run to lotto office so they can buy a Ferrari

I dont mean to keep questioning this but do you have a link? The only thing regarding payments I see in the lottery rules for Michigan is the following:


R 432.18 Payment of prizes.
(2) The commissioner shall establish a schedule for payment of certain
major prizes in installments rather than a lump sum.

As of this morning. Might actually take a peak to see if any of the stores in my travels have this game.


2 $500,000
3 $1,000
55 $200
98 $100
232 $75
207 $60
596 $50
792 $40
3,939 $30
4,566 $20
6,828 $15
13,492 $10

The math, once again: 30,810 prizes remain, so there are about 84,419 tickets left in play. They would cost $844,190. Total prizes remaining add up to $1,561,930. Current EV per $10 ticket = $18.50.

If, by some fluke chance both of the big prizes were already gone, you'd be looking at $6.65ish EV per $10 ticket. Still not a bad gamble on whether someone is rat-holing them or not.

The biggest problem is finding the tickets. I would have to assume that with this quantity left, you'll be all over the state, into the UP, etc in order to try to track them all down.

Do we know if the 1:2.74 number ever changes, or if this is the standard ratio at the start of the promotion? It would be a gamble, but would we be better off to locate the tickets and wait for this number to get down to say 1:2 flat, or something like that?

If it's really that hard to find tix, then there could be far fewer tix left greatly upping the EV

Theoretically there could be only 27k tix left

That's why I was asking if the 1:2.74 number is something that is updated, or if that is a static number issued at the beginning of the game.