The Michigan Lottery +EV thread

[jmark]

Sure, but you've estimated that about 1400 tickets were sold in the last day or so. The game started in February. If we extrapolate back then about 250,000 tickets were originally for sale, so you're down to only 1/3 of the original tickets left. Though I guess you'd have to get pretty severe (odds of winning 1/5) to lose your profit.

[THAKID]

Originally Posted by msufan

It's a lump sum of $500K, however:

Prizes over $5,000: For any Michigan Lottery prize over $5,000, the Lottery is generally required to withhold an estimated 25 percent in federal tax and 4.35 percent in state tax.

How much withheld isn't the issue

After you file how much is the lump some worth after taxes
(amount withheld will most likely be close.... But you can use other gamblingnlosses etc.)

[msufan]

Originally Posted by jmark

Sure, but you've estimated that about 1400 tickets were sold in the last day or so. The game started in February. If we extrapolate back then about 250,000 tickets were originally for sale, so you're down to only 1/3 of the original tickets left. Though I guess you'd have to get pretty severe (odds of winning 1/5) to lose your profit.

There started with far more than 250K tickets to this game. Most stores have sold out of this game, and the rate of sales has slowed dramatically.

Today: still all of the major prizes are out there. 32,398 prizes left, so approx. 88,770 tickets out there. Buying them all would cost $887,700 to win the total remaining prizes of $1,589,170.

Current EV per remaining $10 ticket: $17.90.

[THAKID]

Adjust all prize numbers for taxes then solve for EV

[lamarius]

It looks as if the site does not list the amount of "ticket" winners left. The numbers may be significant and I think your odds are based on winning any prize. In california the odds of winning cash ar close to 1:6 and any 1:3. This could mean that 40% more tickets remain on the cash odds size as well as many many thousands more may exist on the fact that thousands of ticket winners remain. Plus, there could be a non-normal distibution in the -EV direction if many of the tickets went unsold. Remember that you only assume how many tickets remain and there could be significantly different amounts remaining based on statistical distributions, odds of winning (cash or "tickets") and the absense of "ticket" wins left.

[msufan]

Originally Posted by lamarius

It looks as if the site does not list the amount of "ticket" winners left. The numbers may be significant and I think your odds are based on winning any prize. In california the odds of winning cash ar close to 1:6 and any 1:3. This could mean that 40% more tickets remain on the cash odds size as well as many many thousands more may exist on the fact that thousands of ticket winners remain. Plus, there could be a non-normal distibution in the -EV direction if many of the tickets went unsold. Remember that you only assume how many tickets remain and there could be significantly different amounts remaining based on statistical distributions, odds of winning (cash or "tickets") and the absense of "ticket" wins left.

I think what you're calling ticket winners are listed as $10 wins on http://milottery.state.mi.us/msl-ig-trigps.php. (Since that's the price of the ticket.)

There could just as easily be a non-normal distribution in the +EV direction as in the -EV direction, and with over 30K prizes left, that's still a pretty solid number from which to make an estimate.

[Barbiaux]

not meaning to be results oriented but I am just curious. Have you purchased any of these tickets? If so how did it go for you?

[Barbiaux]

I was poking around the PA lottery site and saw that they only tell you the top 3 prizes left for each game. I guess they don't want people figuring out their ev.

[msufan]

Originally Posted by Barbiaux

not meaning to be results oriented but I am just curious. Have you purchased any of these tickets? If so how did it go for you?

I can't find any in my area... stores have sold out. If I see a store selling them I'll buy $100-$200 just for kicks. No bankroll to try to corner the market or anything. Although if things got good enough I might have to take a bigger shot.

As of today, the prizes left are:

2 $500,000
3 $1,000
56 $200
101 $100
234 $75
212 $60
608 $50
814 $40
4,028 $30
4,723 $20
7,051 $15
13,920 $10

So that would be 31,752 prizes remaining. 1 ticket in 2.74 is a winner, so there are an estimated 87,000 tickets remaining. Those tickets cost $870,000 in all for a total winnings of $1,577,795.

The EV for each $10 ticket is now $18.14.

[THAKID]

U know even without hitting the jackpot it's not like your getting crushed

[acesholdup]

Hoping for a trip report on a half million score.

[Barbiaux]

Originally Posted by acesholdup

Hoping for a trip report on a half million score.

+1 That would be wild. If it is does happen let me be the first to say pics or gtfo

If there are really only 80k tickets left and the site is correct that there are 2 500k tickets left 1 in 40k chance are pretty decent odds for a half mil.

[msufan]

Originally Posted by acesholdup

Hoping for a trip report on a half million score.

Originally Posted by Barbiaux

+1 That would be wild. If it is does happen let me be the first to say pics or gtfo

If there are really only 80k tickets left and the site is correct that there are 2 500k tickets left 1 in 40k chance are pretty decent odds for a half mil.

Yeah, I'm hoping this thread ends with me or another 2+2er winning big.

About those odds: let's say you have $1000 to throw at this. You could buy 100 $10 tickets. But it looks like you're going to win back about 2/3 of your money even assuming you don't hit a half million (non-jackpot prizes of $577K on $870K in tix). So if you keep playing with whatever you win, the $1000 will actually let you play about $3000 worth of tickets. So for $1000, you get 300/86,000 tickets remaining, for about a 1/287 chance of getting any one particular prize. With 2 $500K tickets out there, your $1K basically will have about a 1/143 chance of winning half a million!

That's impressive.

[Barbiaux]

Originally Posted by msufan

Yeah, I'm hoping this thread ends with me or another 2+2er winning big.

About those odds: let's say you have $1000 to throw at this. You could buy 100 $10 tickets. But it looks like you're going to win back about 2/3 of your money even assuming you don't hit a half million (non-jackpot prizes of $577K on $870K in tix). So if you keep playing with whatever you win, the $1000 will actually let you play about $3000 worth of tickets. So for $1000, you get 300/86,000 tickets remaining, for about a 1/287 chance of getting any one particular prize. With 2 $500K tickets out there, your $1K basically will have about a 1/143 chance of winning half a million!

That's impressive.

I am going to have to stop reading this thread or i am going to end up in michigan this weekend

[SheetWise]

Don't players have 180 days to cash tickets? On big wins, I would expect winners to do some tax planning. The prizes may not still be available -- they may just be unreported.