Er... how much is your first bet? $1k?

So your nine-time-lightening bolt goes like this;

Bet $1k.. lose
Bet $2k.. lose
Bet $4k.. lose
Bet $8k.. lose
Bet $16k.. lose

And now you cant martingale before hitting you "mental stop loss".

How do you propose making nine losing bets in a row?

its very possible for u and ur friends to make 500 each a night for a short run( a week maybe two) assuming yuou dont get a real patch of bad luck. say over a week(aiming at 3.5k prof each) take 10k each each night and play w/e game u like, bet small($25sih) and mini maritngale upto no more thn $200, slowly building up ur opening wagers when losing and starting over when even. any game u can do this on. never martingale upto 5+ hands, its way too much risk for reward and you def will lose 15 hands in a row if u play 3 1 hr sessions a night for a couple weeks, v good chance over a week and it only takes one of these to bust u. u can make profit out of casino if you accept small winnnings like 5% of ur stake and walk away. u will get to 5% up very often and as long as u have the discipline to walk away when u hit it just as u need to walk away at ur stop marker(prob 10X ur 5% ish, so in said scenario above 5k). i know(met once XD.. know.. lol) a guy who is a pro roulette player who walks in casino twice a month with 70k and walks out with 90k 90% of the time and loses it all 10%. it is doable but dont kid urself, it takes a level of discipline one in a million have as nearly all pple inevitably become greedy in the end.

If you're looking to make small amounts of money, and you have 10,000 in capital, there are probably better things to do than martingaling a -EV game.

No matter how you structure the betting, and no matter how you use a stop-win and stop-loss rule, in the long run the win rate is going to converge to the EV of the game, which is negative without counting. This is an absolute certainty. Discipline has no effect on that eventuality.

Just invest in like a 3 year bond.

Have you ever noticed that fraudsters never buy annuities

your absolutely right but we arent talking about the long run, this is a quick hit tht will work at least 8/10 imo.

in reference to the guy i met making living from roulette i have no idea how he does it tbh, prob just running well over EV lifetime! if i did know or believe it was mathematically viable i wudnt be playin poker.

Yes it sounds like quite the surgical strike -- take the casinos unaware by completely ignoring math. I think you're on to something.

you and your buddies sound like my ideal opposition in a poker game.

Let me know if you guys stop or not when you hit your 50k stop loss.

serious question- what is full Kelly, 1/2 Kelly ect...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

Yup, you can definitely win 5K at least 8/10. If winning 5K 80% of the time and losing ~30K before hitting a bet that would get you to your stop-loss the other 20% of the time is good with you, then you're in luck.

Over/under on how many sessions until OP and friends are broke?

They will welcome you back with open arms with this system. See the post above mine for the reason (which I think understates how fast you will lose it all). Your theory reminds me of perpetual motion machines, ducy?

ICWYDT but its not relevent or accurtae. my 80% is a wild guess and we arent talking about letting it run. OP stated tht him and friends were to go one time to make 5k each, which will likely work given their bankroll

Hey hows it going love the thought i was thinking the same a couple years ago when i thought i discovered something until i did some research and found out its called the martingale system and realized alot of people have failed but heres why.
Like you said people lack self discipline i like 45 min from atlantic city and did this several times i walked into casino with 2500 and decided to win 2 250 bucks and go home more then a days pay. I would do this 2-3 days a week. Im 25 you have to leave when you hit your point the casino could careless about this because once you hit a bad streak they take you broke. But you have to know when to call it a day and quick at the 2500 8 loss in a row. And there was a few times i hit max loss but id say overall maybe up couple dollars but this strategy could work on bigger scale like your saying 100k to win 5 k everything but main thing is leaving you cannot stay more you stay more chance of hitting death streak but good luck and good thinking

Magic Casino Door belief never fails to amuse.

So basically you have 50k to bet, martingaling (presumably) $100, stop-win of $5k per day.

As everyone above says, your expectation is negative, but you do have a slightly greater than 95.78% chance of avoiding a nine-streak in 75 spins (assuming 15 spins per hour in a five hour session).

So if you value the story more than the money, it could be a hell of a story.

Well, it's been nearly 4 years since the guy posted that, so odds are he failed miserably and never spoke about it again.

You'll probably win heaps at first and be stoked.

However there will be that one day, or that one morning at 2 in the morning at the casino where you're literally risking everything to win $100. If you can live with that fact and you think it's worth it, go for it.

I know a lot of reasons some people can't do it is they can't overbet the max wager for the BJ table, a lot of casinos do this to prevent people from using martingale

No. There is no casino in the world that has table limits for the reason of preventing Martingale betting.

The house's risk on a martingale sequence is 1 betting unit, i.e. the small amount of the gambler's FIRST bet. From that point on they are playing with his money and have zero risk of losing more than one minimum unit, but a great chance to take his entire bankroll. They LOVE martingale bettors. Casino operators are not dumb, and they can do math too.

Please, do tell me how a casino wouldn't put up a table limit to limit martingale bettors at high stakes.

You do realize that if someone came with $5,000,000 and played martingale there is a very disgustingly low chance they're ever going to lose, right?

Just do the math yourself. Start with $500 than double to $1,000. Lose that double to $2,000 than 4, than 8, than 16, than 32, than 64, etc etc...if you have enough of a bankroll the chances of you losing that many hands in a row is terrible for the casino.

However, this is assuming anyone would ever sit down with 5 million and play martingale lol. So in effect you're right, but you're also wrong.

No.
Table limits have been explained in a dozen other threads and they have zero to do with preventing any kind of progressive betting including martingale. To the casino the peak bet in a progression is exactly the same as you walking in the door and just betting max on the first bet. What came before is 100% irrelevant. Table game bets are independent events.

Go to any casino manager and tell him you want a higher limit to martingale. Not only will he likely let you, he'll buy your dinner and room.

So, in your own words, Martingale is a downright flawed theory and isn't capable of ever working in the real world because eventually variance will catch up with the player and they'll lose x amount of hands in a row?

Even ....if they start with an obscene amount of money at start at the smallest stakes possible?

ok.

You're just making yourself a bigger hole. The above has nothing to do with your earlier wrong statement about table limits. This is just something else you are also wrong about. I won't be the one to explain the martingale fallacy to you. It has nothing to do with variance.