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09-03-2012, 02:51 PM   #16
journeyman

Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 399
Re: Jackpot Roulette: Can it ever be +EV?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by DucoGranger ok thanks everyone so spins are about 2 min apart. I get distracted easily so I think Ill grind with 2 or 3 open spots. How does this affect the EV?
That's a slow table especially with open spots but there are slow tables. If that's accurate and this means you're playing with 2 or 3 other people it comes down to their betting patterns and how many spins you have to cover how much basically. 5 people playing the outside or only a few numbers is better than 2 or 3 doing the same thing you plan on doing (covering every number w/ a qualifier). Are they covering every number/how many numbers are they covering? What's the table minimum? Can you reliably bet less than \$1/# on certain spins? Do you think the jackpot comes up about once an hour?

You've just got to accurately fill in the variables. Once you do that it's just action you put in *-.027 and then adding in your expected share of the jackpot (you basically just need jackpot size, chance of hitting it...which is 1/37 if they're not cheating you, and expected percentage...which you can get pretty close pretty quickly just by filling in how many numbers they usually cover).

 09-03-2012, 04:20 PM #17 veteran   Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 2,260 Re: Jackpot Roulette: Can it ever be +EV? Guys, I think what OP is saying now is: Every ~50 minutes or so, a jackpot spin is activated. A number is selected by the computer. If the ball on that spin LANDS on the number selected for the jackpot, then anyone that also wagers on that number wins a share of the jackpot. If this is the case, this means the jackpot is not always hit on the jackpot spin when you cover every number. It's only hit 1/37th of the time. If this is the case, it makes the overall game -EV if you're betting \$37 every spin. Since OP hinted that the wheel spins roughly every 2 minutes, we have about 1 in 25 spins being a jackpot spin. And if the wheel has to hit the jackpot number, then the jackpot will hit (1/25)(1/37) = 1 in 925 on average. If you didn't split the jackpot and it's worth \$2000, then you have only \$2000/925 = \$2.16 in returned EV. The base game over 925 spins creates a much larger loss than that. Now if you can cherry pick the spins very carefully and only play around the time the jackpot is activated, then it would be a lot closer to neutral EV. Given this is a gaming house, I would assume the jackpot is working this way and not being awarded nearly every hour.

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