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Umm, isn't there a concept called variance that would be just a wee bit different in these scenarios. Scenario 1 if the player is maintaining the +EV situation over time via small bets there is a very good chance they will increases their bankroll, while having basically no chance of losing it.
I mentioned the time it takes to double a bankroll. Amongst advantage players, that assumes bets are made according to the Kelly criterion or a Kelly fraction. I'm dealing with a relatively sophisticated audience that I assume have read previous threads and/or other discussion of this topic.
So, no, the variance is as constant as the expectation. Or, more accurately, the compound bankroll growth resulting from the EV and variance of the two games is the same.
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This is similar to online casino whoring a few years ago. Basically it was impossible to lose if done in this way.
You have a large advantage and relatively low variance with bonus hustling, even now. It is not really comparable with blackack or poker, let alone baccarat.
As you state, most bonus hustlers underbet dramatically relative to Kelly, some grinding away for hours with $1-$2 bets. This is, as you say, virtually risk-free over any long period of time, but is a very inefficient use of that time. Virtually every bonus hustler making $100,000+ a year plus has to be much more aggressive.
The downside with bonus hustling is that the returns tend to max out at quite a low level. By contrast, only (high) table limits restrict your absolute returns at baccarat. You can put down $50,000 on the tie in some casinos without any one batting an eyelid. BH and baccarat have advantages and disadvantages for certain types of AP.
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The "baccarat way" suggests you basically bet it all when a specific situation takes place (which also takes a lot of time, just spent passively watching instead of betting). Even if you are at a huge (but not certain) +EV advantage, the risk of ruin is hardly zero.
The risk of ruin is virtually never statistically negligble for most offline gamblers. It is definitely not negligible for blackjack card counters or poker players.
However, if you manage your risk intelligently at baccarat, as with blackjack or poker, you can reduce it to 5% or under.
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This really strikes me as odd that you think the two methods are the same just because they have potentially the same +EV.
To restate the point: I think they are the same because the two methods have the same return on investment
with the same risk of ruin.
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Then take out a ton of loans and place it all on every number of a European Roulette wheel except two of the numbers. Odds are you can double your gambling bankroll in one spin if you get enough loans and credit. Let's even pretend the numbers will pay 40-1 instead to create a +EV, but you can only choose half of of them. Definitely +EV, so borrow from everyone any amount you can to do it, right?
See above comments. The correct way to bet this scenario would to bet Kelly, ie your % advantage divided by the ratio of a winning wager to a losing wager. In this case you have about an 8% advantage and roughly an even-money payoff, so you would only commit 8% of your bankroll, not 100%.
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I think a proper pro will not create a scenario where there is a 20% chance of ruin, since losing it all prevents that player from generating more income. The "one theoretical bet" for a BJ player in this scenario is not the same as one ACTUAL bet for a baccarat guy. Seriously, come on :P
20% is too high IMHO for ROR in baccarat or any other gambling game. Most professionals accept a lifetime risk-of-ruin of less than 1%. However, it is relatively common for new counters trying to build a bank to accept such an ROR or even more, and isn't that uncommon an ROR % for a trip bank.
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I also am willing to guess that your approach is not really ideal for people like the OP who's research basically involves "gimme a way to win LOL"
People should be aware of the challenges involved in this or any form of advantage play, I agree.
Btw I appreciate the concepts involved in getting an edge at baccarat are very difficult to comprehend, even for those engaging in some of the open-minded and intelligent criticism we have seen in this thread, and controversial.
However, I am having to repeat myself a lot in these threads.
It would be very helpful and considerate to other forum members if new contributors could re-read the previous threads on baccarat before posting, to minimize the amount of redundant content.