I was recently at a casino sitting in seat 1 of a Mississippi Stud table and the dealer was lifting the 3 common cards high enough in the air upon dealing that I could usually see the bottom card - the last common card the dealer would turn over. I would say 60% of the time I could see the exact card, 30% of the time I could tell it's general color and range (e.g., it's paint, or a red middle card, etc.), and about 10% of the time she dealt correctly and I couldn't see it.

I played at this table for 3 hours, during which she was the dealer 40 minutes out of every hour.

Overall, I made $1500 at this table, with my ante ranging from $15 to $35. I should have made more but got a pretty bad run of cards (I was never dealt a pair JJ or higher during this period). There were two notable hands where I made the best use of the free information. On the first, I had 9-T-J-K in my first four cards, knowing that the last card was paint. I played 2X on the 4th card (on 9TJ) and 3x on the last card since I knew I would hit a pair or straight - it was a Q for a straight. In the second hand I was dealt 4-5 offsuit - normally unplayable - but I knew the last card was a 5. I had $15 on the ante, so I played $15. The first card the dealer flipped was a 4, so I knew I was going to end up with at least 2 pair. Normally you would not bet 3x at this point with one low pair, but I figured I could play it off as gambling (I acted a lot during these 3 hours), so I bet 3x. The next card was a 4 - so I knew I would hit a full house! Of course, now it was obvious to bet 3x since I had 2 pair at this point. The hand paid $1200.

I purposefully played a couple of hands to the end where I knew the last card would not help me, to throw the eye-in-the-sky off my scent, since I'm sure some of my plays looked odd. It wouldn't be difficult to figure out I knew what the last card was going to be. No one caught it though.

My question is, if I took maximum advantage of this information without fear of getting caught, and assuming I could not also see anyone else's hands from seat 1, is this enough to give me an advantage over the house? 1) considering just the 66% of the time she was dealing and 2) over the entire 3 hours, having a normal dealer the other 33% of the time. Anyone smart enough to figure this out?

don't think you needed to keep the eye in the sky happy

I wouldn't totally agree with this. He has a huge advantage here and has to play completely retarded with respect to basic strategy to take max advantage of it. I wouldn't be surprised if he had an advantage of 20% or more here when he knew the exact "river" card. But since he only could tell the extra card only 60% of the time exactly, he probably is okay with regards to the "eye in the sky" because they think: "LOL at people beating Mississippi Stud for large amounts of money through angleshooting".

I might look into the exact math, but it's terribly complex. Basically you'd follow basic published strategy, but just one street ahead of time, so when the turn card is flipped over, you either fold 5s or lower, raise 1x or 3x (doesn't matter) on 6s-Ts, and 3x on Js or better since you know your entire hand now.

Edit: Actually optimal strategy may be more aggressive than just looking at basic strategy one street ahead since you'll have the ability to 3x the bet when you hit on the first or second community card. But playing basic strategy based on the amount of cards you have seen would be a decent start.

I agree with Tringlomane here, you almost certainly have a large edge.

Quick and dirty analysis: The house edge is 4.91%. So, if you can gain five bet units per 100 hands from your hole-carding knowledge per hundred hands you can gain an edge. It should be obvious that with perfect knowledge of the last card a 5-unit gain per hundred hands is an underestimate: there are quite a number of situations where you will only make your hand on the last card and the HC strategy departure is straightforward.

Even taking into consideration the other dealer and the 60% recognition rate I'd have thought you would have a big edge here.

Edge here seems quite strong. As far as the eye in the sky, you should absolutely be aware of and attempt to " keep it happy" . They see almost everything and who knows, they may be aware that dealer is a little weak and be a little extra cautious of her games

I hope you plan on continuing

I havent had a chance to return to this casino, but I do plan on doing so soon. I will report if the dealer is still there and still exposing.

I'm a little skeptical that the house edge I could obtain is that great once you consider she only deals 66% of the time, the fact that most hands would not play any different with this knowledge, the fact I could not always tell the card, and the need to avoid tipping my hand.

Consider some examples:

If you start with any picture card, or two middle cards, it is correct to play 1X, regardless of the last card. If you have 2 cards under 6, it is only correct to play if the last card makes you a pair or perhaps an open ended straight draw. Then, I'm losing an extra bet the majority of the time when I do not improve. Playing 3x on any holding other than a pair or high suited cards, say, when I know the last card would give me at least a push, risks exposure.

I wont go beyond the first two cards, but any play of 2x or 3x based on a non pair hand, where I know I will end up with a push, risks exposure. Plus, many hands I would normally play I would still play the same way knowing the last card.

The easiest way to take advantage is throwing away hands I would normally play, as this would rarely raise suspicion (throwing away after JQs is shown would look a bit odd, especially combined with my playing J-2-3-4 all the way and making a J on the river.

Definitely an advantage, but not likely that great - I would guess around 5% all-told. Still enough to make a lot of money, but you will arouse more suspicion the longer the winning continues.

Lol at playing a couple hours and being worried about 'heat.'

It can be safely assumed he plans to play there quite frequently in the future, thus it is important now he minimize any chance of suspicion to extend his play as long as possible. Anything else would be foolish.

I went back to this casino last week and the dealer in question was not there.