Let the jeers begin. I am immune, as I have been called an idiot for 6 straight months by the dealers, floorpersons, pit bosses, and my fellow players.

You see, I have an unusual betting style. I bet $25 on the player and $50 on the player dragon bonus. I love those SUCKER bets.

Dragon Bonus Table at Coushatta Casino Resort, Kinder, Louisiana :

1x Natural Winner
2x Difference 4 or 5
6x Difference 6 or 7
10x Difference of 8
30x Difference of 9
Natural Ties PUSH

I calculated the player edge on this table fairly easily from the tables at Wizard of Odds. Do it yourself and never be amazed by the incompetence of casino management.

6.7% edge to the player!!

My brothers and I won over $200,000 over 6 months while never betting over $100/hand.

Sadly, just last week, the table changed to 4X on a difference of 6-7, making the game unplayable.

flekk17

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

oh

A motto to live by.

When I read the title of the OP, I thought it was going to be another Martingale post. I'm glad to see it wasn't. Too bad casino management caught their mistake.

Assuming all of this is true, I would wonder why no other players started to wonder about the strategy, and if measures were taken to hide total wins etc. If this was done (ie hide some of the winnings so it looks like it was less of a win/loss and or vary strategy a little to avoid detection) for a long time while all along no bragging was done then I commend the OP for this.

Thanks. It was easy to escape detection as the baccarat action is very heavy in the Lake Charles market. I remember one day having $1500 green in each pocket -- I kept bumping people with my expanded "hips". Psychologically, it was a difficult "system" to play. We experienced losing streaks of up to 40 hands in a row with no bonus payout. We had downswings of up to $8000. Most of the time we could look like losers as the 30x payouts account for about 11% of the expected value.

Assuming all of this is true,

Yes, I know ALL gamblers lie. I am not a gambler .

Other players did ask about our strategy.

"Why bet only the player?"
"If you bet the banker you have to pay commission."

"Why do you bet more on the bonus?"
"I love hitting 30 times."

"Are you making any money doing that?" Dealer question.
"Yeah, as long as we don't hit any "banker runs"." Dealer laughs.

Banker runs were when we could lament the most .

Players especially asked about our strategy -- many tried it only to be wiped out by the huge swings. And as I mentioned, the psychology of being a LOSER for 40 straight hands is tough.

We did not vary our strategy as it was assumed to be imbecilic from the start. DRAGON BONUS is a sucker bet. This dogmatic thinking is hard to overcome.

After a banker run, my youngest brother had a Vietnamese woman pleading with him to stop betting like that. She was nearly in tears. "I'm going to keep trying it my way for a little bit longer."

It reminds me of the time a few friends and I were playing Reno -- the Cal Neva Club was offering even money on Canadian dollars which we could freely buy over the border for about 93c. We played $100C notes in the field 24/7 for even money. Our biggest problem was converting our winnings back into Canadian.

The club thought we were crazy -- and we were comped quite well for our "play".

Jesus.

Management took two steps to rectify their diminished hold:

1. "Whipped" the dealers to quicken the pace of the game. The dealers were put on the clock. They were under strict orders: Scoop the cards, "place your bets", "last call", "no more bets" -- faster, faster. Most dealers were achieving 50-60 decisions per hour at a full table. My brother Steve once played a shoe (70-80 hands) in 11 minutes head up. This did not seem to hurt our win rate .

2. By order of the CFO, ONE AND A HALF decks were cut from the back of the shoe (standard is 14 cards cut off). Apparently, baccarat card counters were responsible for the lost revenue.

Oh, and the comps -- I receive $100/week in cash "back" and Steve gets $150/week. Tonight, I will check out if they have increased this amount for July as I put in a lot of hours in June. Dinner at the Big Sky steakhouse every night. And tomorrow I will hit them up for $300 at the gift shop.

flekk17

That is some solid real life casino bonus whoring then, good job.

Did they say anything to you once they figured out what was the problem (made me chuckle that they tried to speed up the game, though I can see how they would think that is a solution).

Also, I can only imagine the fun in dealing with the superstitions from other players in this whole scenario.

OP -

How exactly did you discover this opportunity?

I see the part about Wizard of Odds, but what made you think to run the numbers on this particular game in the first place?

Refer to OP.

Read my post.

[QUOTE=Micturition Man;4922543]OP -

How exactly did you discover this opportunity?

I see the part about Wizard of Odds, but what made you think to run the numbers on this particular game in the first place?[/QUOTE

My friend explained that he had a system for beating baccarat : get a partner -- one bets player+dragon the other banker+dragon. I explained the usual about -EV plus -EV can never yield an edge. He swore that it worked and I promised to show him the numbers the next day. I ran the numbers and realized I was sitting on the proverbial goldmine.

Congratulations on your winnings =) A lot of the casino's are getting smart to the newer variations on betting and strategy

"A lot of the casino's are getting smart ..."

That's where you lost me.

Why did you think this? The sum of two independent distributions is a normal convolution and can not yield a positive EV, since E(X+Y) = EX + EY in this case, but for two dependent distributions nothing can be said and it's easy to find a counterexample to what you say

Please explain further.

Is it not true that if each bet has a house edge that no combination of the two can yield an edge?

flekk17

That would be true for the player if the house edge (read: players expectation) was negative for both wagers.

Did the rest of the pay table change also?
With this change where does it put the % at now?
Was the pay table miss printed or is there differant pay tables for this game?

Event Pays Probability Return
Win by 9 30 0.003683 0.11049
Win by 8 10 0.006822 0.06822
Win by 7 4 0.017924 0.071696
Win by 6 4 0.028257 0.113028
Win by 5 2 0.033244 0.066488
Win by 4 2 0.037368 0.074736
Natural win 1 0.162589 0.162589
Natural tie 0 0.017871 0
Loss -1 0.692242 -0.692242
Total 1 -0.024995

even if the rest of the rules stay the same, house edge 2.5%.

There are different pay schedules available. I assume they are all from Shufflemaster.

9 = 30x
8 = 10x
7 = 6x
6 = 4x
5 = 2x
4 = 1x

9 = 20x
8 = 10x
7 = 7x
6 = 4x
5 = 3x
4 = 1x

These are two I have seen. I have not calculated them.

There are several theories as to why the casino botched this one.

1. This was done purposely to drive business/drop. L'Auberge in Lake Charles
is dominating the baccarat in this market. Now it is even more pronounced as Texas gamblers must drive another 50+ miles past L'Auberge and the Isle of Capri to get to Coushatta. On my trips to get cash back I have witnessed $5 minimum baccarat tables. L'Auberge regularly runs 6 or 7 FIFTY dollar minimum games on swing shift.

2. The layouts have the "Shufflemaster" logo on them with a manufactured by "EGC(?)". Could Coushatta have requested this layout without consulting Shufflemaster on the math? I know for a fact that Shufflemaster advised management not to revert to their original pay schedule. So at some point they wised up and brought in experts.

3. Or they knew the math and did not think it could/would be exploited?