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Old 07-16-2012, 12:04 PM   #1
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First shot at counting in a casino: profitable?

I've been reading a little about BJ and practicing the count at home. I can keep up with the count pretty fast and accurately, even with a little distraction on the side. Even if I'm far from good I'd like to take my first shot in low-stakes BJ game in a casino.

Basically I use the simple hi-lo count, no adjustment, no keeping track of aces (probably my next step). I'm also naturally pretty good at assessing how many cards are left in the shoe. I place the minimum bet bet when true count is around 0, leave when it goes below -2, and bet bigger and bigger when it gets higher (more or less 2x at 2; 4x at 3; 7x at 4; 10x at 5; 12x at 6 and above).

I found a game with seemingly little heat. Usual BJ rules except no surrender. 6 decks, with a good penetration (1 to 1.5 decks)

Just had one, short, breakeven session. Is this profitable long-term?
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Old 07-17-2012, 08:10 AM   #2
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Re: First shot at counting in a casino: profitable?

Seems legit. What is the minimum bet? I know that once your bet varies by $100, "Checks Play" is called. My advice to you would be to stay under the $100 mark unless you've won several hands in a row and it looks as though you're playing progressive.
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Old 07-17-2012, 09:25 AM   #3
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Re: First shot at counting in a casino: profitable?

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Originally Posted by EndoBird View Post
Seems legit. What is the minimum bet? I know that once your bet varies by $100, "Checks Play" is called. My advice to you would be to stay under the $100 mark unless you've won several hands in a row and it looks as though you're playing progressive.
Minimum bet at smallest table (only one I'm rolled for) is 5$. So I'm not really planning to bet more than 60$ per hand.

Is it more under the radar if I place several 20-50$ bets when the count is good, rather than one big bet?
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Old 07-17-2012, 02:31 PM   #4
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If you're really getting 75-83% penetration that's really good. Suspiciously good, even.

But assuming you've got 65-70% penetration and LV Strip rules, you should be able to eek out 0.5-1 unit/hr with a 1:8 spread and little heat. If you can Wong you can probably drop your spreAd to 1:4.
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Old 08-06-2012, 10:30 AM   #5
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Re: First shot at counting in a casino: profitable?

what is the proper bankroll for blackjack assuming you're counting cards?
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Old 08-07-2012, 01:36 AM   #6
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Re: First shot at counting in a casino: profitable?

Quote:
Originally Posted by EndoBird View Post
Seems legit. What is the minimum bet? I know that once your bet varies by $100, "Checks Play" is called. My advice to you would be to stay under the $100 mark unless you've won several hands in a row and it looks as though you're playing progressive.
calling checks play has nothing to do with how your betting varies. most commonly it's called when dealers see bigger than normal action. it's supposed to be called when large denomination chips are in play, but since so many dealers call checks play for eight greens or whatever, "black in action" and "purple action" is common.

some places don't really give a **** how hard you spread your bets and some places will back you off for spreading from $3 to $15.

most stuff you do will end up being "under the radar" at your level, so i really wouldn't worry much about employing cover. just don't camp out and count down shoe after shoe at the same place. quick sessions are good.
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Old 08-07-2012, 10:01 PM   #7
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Re: First shot at counting in a casino: profitable?

Why are you playing 6 decks? You want to play the least amount of decks...that is, if blackjack is still paying 3:2
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Old 08-07-2012, 11:45 PM   #8
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Re: First shot at counting in a casino: profitable?

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Originally Posted by pokermaniac12 View Post
Why are you playing 6 decks? You want to play the least amount of decks...that is, if blackjack is still paying 3:2
Simplistic view.

Potential reasons to play more decks

1) Better pen
2) Better rules
3) Better pen
4) Less/no heat for a given spread
5) Better pen
6) Faster dealer
7) Better pen

Last edited by bpb; 08-07-2012 at 11:54 PM.
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Old 08-07-2012, 11:51 PM   #9
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Re: First shot at counting in a casino: profitable?

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Originally Posted by chuckles2020 View Post
what is the proper bankroll for blackjack assuming you're counting cards?
Totally depends on your spread, rules, pen, wonging strategy, acceptable risk of ruin, etc

But 100x your max bet if you're spreading 1-10 units is a decent estimate. So $10,000 if you are spreading $10-$100 should get you at about 5% ROR.
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Old 08-09-2012, 01:11 AM   #10
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Re: First shot at counting in a casino: profitable?

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what is the proper bankroll for blackjack assuming you're counting cards?
Determine the amount of RoR you're willing to accept, then determine yourBR.
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Old 08-09-2012, 01:35 PM   #11
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Re: First shot at counting in a casino: profitable?

Guess this is as good as any place to post this and get the math people to tell my why this "system" is flawed.

I do a simple count with a 6 shoe deck at a table that allows splitting of any pair and doubling on any 2 cards. 3:2 obviously. Only found them downtown or off strip lately.

I only count A's and 5' & 6's.
A's are +2
5's and 6's are -1

Theory: When the count goes negative, there are more A's in the deck and less 5's and 6's. Duh! The way I play it is to DD on soft 17, 18 or 19 when the dealer is showing a 5 or 6. (Fewer 5's and 6's in the deck make it less likely they will turn a 20 or 21 and consequently they will bust.) I also split 99 and sometimes 1010 if the count is below -10.

I only vary my units by 4. So at a $10 table min, that is the bet for any +number, $20 for -2, $30 for -5, $40 for -8 or better.

Not saying you will get rich playing this way, but I usually come out a winner and the "free drinks" are a bonus. FYI... I am just a recreational player that goes to Vegas 3 or 4 times per year. Other than stated above, I play by the book.

Flame Away.
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Old 08-10-2012, 08:54 AM   #12
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Re: First shot at counting in a casino: profitable?

Quote:
Originally Posted by CowboyCold View Post
Guess this is as good as any place to post this and get the math people to tell my why this "system" is flawed.

I do a simple count with a 6 shoe deck at a table that allows splitting of any pair and doubling on any 2 cards. 3:2 obviously. Only found them downtown or off strip lately.

I only count A's and 5' & 6's.
A's are +2
5's and 6's are -1

Theory: When the count goes negative, there are more A's in the deck and less 5's and 6's. Duh! The way I play it is to DD on soft 17, 18 or 19 when the dealer is showing a 5 or 6. (Fewer 5's and 6's in the deck make it less likely they will turn a 20 or 21 and consequently they will bust.) I also split 99 and sometimes 1010 if the count is below -10.

I only vary my units by 4. So at a $10 table min, that is the bet for any +number, $20 for -2, $30 for -5, $40 for -8 or better.

Not saying you will get rich playing this way, but I usually come out a winner and the "free drinks" are a bonus. FYI... I am just a recreational player that goes to Vegas 3 or 4 times per year. Other than stated above, I play by the book.

Flame Away.
If you bother through this half-ass count why don't you try the real hi-lo count? It's the same principle but more accurate.

Also you need to always know how deep you are in the shoe, -8 in your count is not at all the same value at the beginning of your shoe than towards the cut.
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Old 08-10-2012, 02:51 PM   #13
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Re: First shot at counting in a casino: profitable?

Quote:
Originally Posted by CowboyCold View Post
Guess this is as good as any place to post this and get the math people to tell my why this "system" is flawed.

I do a simple count with a 6 shoe deck at a table that allows splitting of any pair and doubling on any 2 cards. 3:2 obviously. Only found them downtown or off strip lately.

I only count A's and 5' & 6's.
A's are +2
5's and 6's are -1

Theory: When the count goes negative, there are more A's in the deck and less 5's and 6's. Duh! The way I play it is to DD on soft 17, 18 or 19 when the dealer is showing a 5 or 6. (Fewer 5's and 6's in the deck make it less likely they will turn a 20 or 21 and consequently they will bust.) I also split 99 and sometimes 1010 if the count is below -10.

I only vary my units by 4. So at a $10 table min, that is the bet for any +number, $20 for -2, $30 for -5, $40 for -8 or better.

Not saying you will get rich playing this way, but I usually come out a winner and the "free drinks" are a bonus. FYI... I am just a recreational player that goes to Vegas 3 or 4 times per year. Other than stated above, I play by the book.

Flame Away.
Your strategy should reduce the house edge or possibly give your a small edge.

A few observations:

A 4:1 spread is pretty small for a shoe.

I agree with the poster that suggested that if your going to the trouble to count 5's 6's and A's, you might as well improve the accuracy by bringing in 2's 3's 4's and 10's (Hi-Lo).

The signs you are using are opposite the usual convention for card counting (small cards +, big cards - is the convention, so + count = more 10's and A's than small cards = bet more). This really doesn't matter if you're playing alone. For team play, it's useful for everybody to be on the same page, so there are no misunderstandings.

Soft 17 vs. 3-6 and soft 18 vs. 2-6 are basic strategy doubles, as is soft 19 vs. 6 if the dealer hits soft 17 (several other soft hands vs. small dealer upcards, too). I'm sure there are + count indexes for soft 19 vs. 4 and 5, so you're not doing anything badly wrong. However, the fact that you mention these as if you are doing something unusual makes me wonder if you are really playing as "by the book" as you think you are. If you haven't already done so, memorize basic strategy cold (counting isn't going to help you much if you're making incorrect playing decisions). If you really want to maximize your edge (but also make your system more difficult), memorize at least the "Illustrious 18" indexes for deviating from basic strategy. Or just use the 16 vs. 10 (0 for Hi-Lo) and insurance

Last edited by CORed; 08-10-2012 at 03:02 PM.
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Old 08-10-2012, 11:14 PM   #14
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Re: First shot at counting in a casino: profitable?

Quote:
Originally Posted by CowboyCold View Post
Guess this is as good as any place to post this and get the math people to tell my why this "system" is flawed.

I do a simple count with a 6 shoe deck at a table that allows splitting of any pair and doubling on any 2 cards. 3:2 obviously. Only found them downtown or off strip lately.

I only count A's and 5' & 6's.
A's are +2
5's and 6's are -1

Theory: When the count goes negative, there are more A's in the deck and less 5's and 6's. Duh! The way I play it is to DD on soft 17, 18 or 19 when the dealer is showing a 5 or 6. (Fewer 5's and 6's in the deck make it less likely they will turn a 20 or 21 and consequently they will bust.) I also split 99 and sometimes 1010 if the count is below -10.

I only vary my units by 4. So at a $10 table min, that is the bet for any +number, $20 for -2, $30 for -5, $40 for -8 or better.

Not saying you will get rich playing this way, but I usually come out a winner and the "free drinks" are a bonus. FYI... I am just a recreational player that goes to Vegas 3 or 4 times per year. Other than stated above, I play by the book.

Flame Away.
Pretty Sure splitting 10's is one of the fastest way to get caught!
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