Euro Millions Lottery Jackpot Cap - Other Gambling Games Forum

rwesty · 08-09-2012, 05:31 PM

I see that this lottery has hit the cap of $190 million euros but I'm not quite sure what happens from this point.

According to this page (http://www.euro-millions.com/jackpot-cap.asp) it looks like if there is no winner this next drawing it will be guaranteed to be paid out in the following drawing. Am I reading this correctly? If so, are there any sources on how many tickets are sold/how many are expected to be sold?

I would be surprised if ticket sales are low enough that this drawing allows for a +EV gamble but I think it's still worth looking at the math. Has this scenario happened in the past for this game or is this the first time?

mario38 · 08-09-2012, 07:39 PM

If there is a roll down, I would expect the expected value to be positive. I would love to get some tickets. Does anyone in this forum live in a country that sells Euro Millions? I do not want to buy from a reseller. Their markup is high and I am not sure if they are legal operations.

Good luck.

jeccross · 08-10-2012, 07:24 AM

Do you really want to buy lottery tickets from someone over a forum though? Sounds like a lawsuit waiting to happen if you win.

johnny2toes · 08-10-2012, 08:48 AM

jackpot: 190mi €
chance of hitting: 117mi to 1
cost of ticket: 2€

so still - EV. If it gets rolled down to all but one number you are +EV if lone winner, but with high chances of splitting among several winners. Very high considering the number of tickets sold for tonight.

But is EV really relevant when buying lottery tickets? I mean EV is supposed to be calculated because of long-term expectations, volume flattening out variance, beating the game over a large sample etc. This is the lottery. We're just pooling together money to lower the European Union deficit and make random Billy Frank from Bumblefruck, GodKnowWhere a filthy rich dude waking up to a lot of new "friends".

tringlomane · 08-10-2012, 05:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnny2toes

jackpot: 190mi €
chance of hitting: 117mi to 1
cost of ticket: 2€

so still - EV. If it gets rolled down to all but one number you are +EV if lone winner, but with high chances of splitting among several winners. Very high considering the number of tickets sold for tonight.

You're forgetting about the smaller payouts, but it still might have been -EV. But in reality, it doesn't matter as a sole winner won the jackpot tonight. Lucky bastard.

mario38 · 08-14-2012, 05:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bnewfield

I hope I can win a big lottery jackpot like that someday. I've been spending a lot of time studying patterns and mathematical probabilities, and I think it's entirely possible. I won $10,000 once using a system I found online (here's a review if you're interested: http://**************reviews.net/lottery-method/ ) If you keep playing smart and not just picking completely random numbers, you'll win eventually.

The only system that improves the odds of winning is to buy lots of tickets. The only way to afford to buy lots of tickets is to play in a group. And since playing in a group means having to split the jackpot, then only play in a group when the jackpot is very large.

Easy peasy.

Good luck.