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Old 02-06-2012, 05:44 PM   #16
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Re: Does this BJ plan work?

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Originally Posted by acesholdup View Post
First sentence is fine. How do you go from there to the second?
.
The argument I was making, seemingly wrong from what I hear, is this.
If in 1000 coin flips streaks of 6 or more will commonly occur 10 times ( randomly picked number) And we assume those streaks are evenly distributed. If we refuse to bet against heads once a streak of 5 has occurred, we can gain the bets when tails does go to 6.
Assuming equal probability of streaks, we should gain 5 units per 1000.

For some mysterious reason, mysterious to me anyway, this is not true
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Old 02-06-2012, 06:19 PM   #17
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Re: Does this BJ plan work?

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Originally Posted by mcteague View Post
The argument I was making, seemingly wrong from what I hear, is this.
If in 1000 coin flips streaks of 6 or more will commonly occur 10 times ( randomly picked number) And we assume those streaks are evenly distributed. If we refuse to bet against heads once a streak of 5 has occurred, we can gain the bets when tails does go to 6.
Assuming equal probability of streaks, we should gain 5 units per 1000.

For some mysterious reason, mysterious to me anyway, this is not true
It's wrong. There are people who explain stats more concisely than me so I won't try to confuse you but it's wrong.

Was thinking about a baseball bet for the system players that would go like this;

I pick 25 hitters for myself and 50 hitters for you. All must be listed as healthy going into the season and projected to get a full share of plate appearances.

The bet is on batting average and we count the full season for my 25 guys.

For your 50 guys you can use any system that can be generically prescibed to your whole group before the season, does not involve examing the stats of their opponents, and should result in at least (roughly) half a season's worth of plate appearances for each player (the reason you would get 50 to my 25).

Examples of a system would be only couting the at bats on a game day following a game day in which your player did not get a hit, only counting at bats on a game day following a game day in which your player reached base or drove in a run, only counting at bats on Mon/Wed/Fri/Sun, etc.

Do you like your chances? I mean I have to use the whole season you can take advantage of the distribution of streaks.
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Old 02-06-2012, 06:31 PM   #18
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Re: Does this BJ plan work?

Quote:
Originally Posted by mcteague View Post
If in 1000 coin flips streaks of 6 or more will commonly occur 10 times ( randomly picked number) And we assume those streaks are evenly distributed. If we refuse to bet against heads once a streak of 5 has occurred, we can gain the bets when tails does go to 6.

Assuming equal probability of streaks, we should gain 5 units per 1000.

For some mysterious reason, mysterious to me anyway, this is not true
The probability of losing six in a row -- as per your example -- is equally likely whether or not the six trials are in the same session, same day, at same table, in the same club, or consecutive events. It's always the same. You can skip bets, move around, or anything else you want -- the probability applies to the six trials you choose as much as any other six (assuming a game where you cannot get an advantage).
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Old 02-06-2012, 07:18 PM   #19
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Re: Does this BJ plan work?

Quote:
Originally Posted by mcteague View Post
The argument I was making, seemingly wrong from what I hear, is this.
If in 1000 coin flips streaks of 6 or more will commonly occur 10 times ( randomly picked number) And we assume those streaks are evenly distributed. If we refuse to bet against heads once a streak of 5 has occurred, we can gain the bets when tails does go to 6.
Assuming equal probability of streaks, we should gain 5 units per 1000.

For some mysterious reason, mysterious to me anyway, this is not true
It isn't mysterious, this is called the Gambler's Fallacy. You are trying to attribute some influence over future flips due to past ones. There is none. If you hit 100 heads in a row, the chance the next flip is tails remains 50% (with a fair coin). And the chance the next five flips are tails remains 0.5^5, the same as at any point where we start counting.

Last edited by NewOldGuy; 02-06-2012 at 07:24 PM.
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Old 02-06-2012, 07:28 PM   #20
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Re: Does this BJ plan work?

Thanks for all the replies. It's funny to me because I do know that what I was arguing can't be true. It's just one of those things sometimes when I think of it I think it should be. But I know that it isn't.
Thanks for pounding reason in to my head.
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Old 02-06-2012, 08:49 PM   #21
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Re: Does this BJ plan work?

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Originally Posted by ractar View Post

The downside I see to this is that you follow this process until you get to $200/day. 200/8 hours in corporate America is $25/hour (and you get no benefits and no guarantee of winning).

What is his "daily" bankroll and what is his "full" bankroll? Also, if you make $200 today, lose $500 tomorrow, and win $200 the next day, you're still down $100 from where you started.
he owns a business of some sort so he has other income but im sure if anyone wanted to go higher it wouldn't be a problem as long as the amounts aren't extrodinary.

Daily bankroll is $300 to make $50 $400 to make $75 $500 etc

if he loses half he stops so theres no chance of him losing more than he can make up in a short amount of time.

I must say im not familiar with a lot of the terminology a lot of you are using so ill have to reaserch and come back
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Old 02-06-2012, 08:57 PM   #22
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Re: Does this BJ plan work?

also there is variance in blackjack, sometimes you have to bet more than your original bet in order to play mathematically best.
let's say you bet 1 unit lost
you bet 2 units lost
you bet 4 unit lost
you bet 8 units and lost
now you are betting 16 units
it comes 4 4 the dealer has 6
you split
it comes 6 you double it comes 5
the other comes 3 you double it comes 9
the dealer makes 21 and you have lost not 16 units but 64 units. how long will you have to work to get that money back.
just this weekend i had a situation with a true count of 8.5
i had 7 7
dealer has 3
split one gets 3
double comes two
the other gets 4
double comes 5
the dealer makes 5 card 21 one and i am down 4 max bets
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Old 02-07-2012, 02:28 AM   #23
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Re: Does this BJ plan work?

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-He has tried this all over the U.S and never got any heat
i find that hard to believe
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Old 02-10-2012, 03:48 PM   #24
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Re: Does this BJ plan work?

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Originally Posted by mcteague View Post
Thanks for all the replies. It's funny to me because I do know that what I was arguing can't be true. It's just one of those things sometimes when I think of it I think it should be. But I know that it isn't.
Thanks for pounding reason in to my head.
the problem is that quitting during a losing streak doesnt end it, youre just taking a break in the middle. If youre destined to lose 14 times in a row, using the system youre talking about youd lose 5, take a break, then come back and lose 9 more.

it really is all about seeing it as one long session anything else is just fooling yourself.
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