Quote:
Originally Posted by SimonStylesTheActo
Spotting 1 of the dealer's cards turns that -3% house edge into a 3% player edge. If it's a jack or lower you play all, if it's a queen you play q74, k you play k74 a u play a47 (or better obv). something like that.
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Well, its not quite like that. If you spot a rank that equals your high card, you'll want to play the hands that are within the top 2/3rds of hands within that rank. Why top 2/3rds?
For the breakeven hand, EV call needs to equal -1 or better. This is the same as folding all the time with this hand, so we are indifferent between calling and folding.
X = win percentage needed
X*(+2) + (1-X)*(-2) = -1
3X = 1 X = 1/3
A win percentage of 1/3 will be achieved by playing a hand that is precisely at the bottom of top two-thirds range of the remaining two cards.
So if we see a matching high card (Q, K, or A), there are fifty cards remaining in the deck that could be given to the dealer (ignore our two other cards to set the ranking up). there are 1225 combinations that these 50 cards could be given. We'll need to beat 1225/3 = 409 of them to justify playing the hand.
Each rank of 2 cards will yield 15 high card combos, not 16 since one suited combo yields a flush for the dealer.
32 - 15
43, 42 - 30
54, 53, 52 - 45
65-62 - 60
76-72 - 75
87-82 - 90
98-92 - 105
Thru 9 high this yields 420 > 409 combos, therefore if you have a hand that is A, K, or Q high, and you see that one of the dealer's cards matches your high card, do the following based on your other two cards: Raise T2 or better, and fold all others.
Doyle approves this message.