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Old 07-21-2009, 08:08 PM   #1
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A Craps strategy using 100x odds

Please give me your opinion on the following betting strategy. Thank you

how would this strategy work in the long run for a high roller?

-Play at a 100x take odds craps table

-place the minimum bet $5 on the pass line

-take odds only when you roll a 6 or 8 on the first roll so, in order to keep variance to a minimal effect.

-first odds bet will be 50x ($250), if you lose, then on the next 6 or 8 on the first roll, bet 51x ($255), but if you win at 50x instead of losing, then go home, a nice profit for the day.

-come back the next day bet 49x when you take odds on the 6 or 8 that is rolled first etc....

take a buy in of $25000.00 each day with you, and having 40 buy ins to deal with variance. Total bankroll = 1 million dollars

This system could also be used playing the don't pass(slightly better than pass line), and only laying odds when a 6 or 8 is rolled first, using $6 units, starting with 50x at ($300)

D'alembert = lose 1 unit up, win 1 unit down.
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Old 07-21-2009, 08:27 PM   #2
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Re: A Craps strategy using 100x odds

All the confusion about the pass line and the don't pass line is silly. The odds bet, at whatever odds, is a coin flip, and it's the only one we care about. (For now...)

You're asking if you can beat coin flipping (aka odds betting) with some sort of negative progression insurance martingale system (D'alembert).

The answer is no, you can't beat coin flipping with D'alembert or Martingale or any other "system." You can, in the long run, come out exactly even on all of your odds bets, lose a tiny bit on the pass line, and hope the casino rates you well, despite not giving them any "real" action.

I assure you, however, that the casino will much likely survive any sort of good run of luck flipping coins before you go bankrupt on your inevitable bad run of 50-50 betting.

100x odds exist to make suckers bet above their bankroll. You'll always go broke before they do.
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Old 07-21-2009, 10:06 PM   #3
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Re: A Craps strategy using 100x odds

Quote:
Originally Posted by ultimatedebt View Post
Please give me your opinion on the following betting strategy. Thank you.
Eliminate the odds, because it just adds variance -- it's all noise, with no information. Concentrate on the information -- that's the line bet.

If you use a serial structure, such as the D'alembert, Martingale, Split-Martingale (or cancellation) strategy -- you're going to lose.

If, on the other hand, Luke, you can feel the Force -- and selectively choose your wagers -- such structures will certainly make your life more entertaining It will also let you know if the Force is within you.
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Old 07-21-2009, 10:53 PM   #4
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Re: A Craps strategy using 100x odds

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Originally Posted by SheetWise View Post
Eliminate the odds, because it just adds variance -- it's all noise, with no information. Concentrate on the information -- that's the line bet.

If you use a serial structure, such as the D'alembert, Martingale, Split-Martingale (or cancellation) strategy -- you're going to lose.

If, on the other hand, Luke, you can feel the Force -- and selectively choose your wagers -- such structures will certainly make your life more entertaining It will also let you know if the Force is within you.
Great comment.
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Old 07-22-2009, 03:42 AM   #5
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Re: A Craps strategy using 100x odds

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Originally Posted by The Palimax View Post
I assure you, however, that the casino will much likely survive any sort of good run of luck flipping coins before you go bankrupt on your inevitable bad run of 50-50 betting.

100x odds exist to make suckers bet above their bankroll. You'll always go broke before they do.
True on each of these points.
For someone who is going to the table with a limited bankroll of say $500 and is willing to accept a total wipeout rather than try to stay at the table, I think 100x would be fun. Instead of a session of three hours at a craps table, you might be there for two rolls consisting of a Point...SevenOut.
IF you are truly willing to walk away from that table before you've even had one lousy drink, ... 100x would be fun on a win, crippling on a loss.
Since any "system" means the casino wins over time, the way to defeat them is to realize that and just take your chance.
Five dollar PassLine bet, if a point is established, put your 100x behind it.
IF its Seven-Out, walk away with your entire bankroll gone and go pay for a drink as you curse your luck and wonder what you will do with the rest of your vacation.
IF the shooter passes, pick up your money... and most important of all... revert to your normal 2x to 10x betting style and keep playing as you normally would.
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Old 07-22-2009, 11:22 AM   #6
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Re: A Craps strategy using 100x odds

If you're betting 5 on the pass and 250 on the odds why in the world are you taking 25k with you? What does it mean to have a 1 million dollar bankroll? You can't have a bankroll (in the same way you have a poker bankroll) for a table game because they're all -EV.
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