The point was about Craps. If you have a betting system to beat the game fairly then you will be the first in the history of gambling. The rules of the game say that you don't.

NewOldGuy - mathematical and statistical, though.

But we've got to verify it
legally,
to see. To see?
If this. If this?
Is morally, ethically
Spiritually, physically
Positively, absolutely
Undeniably and reliably
true.

I'm not saying we used an invincible betting system, I just sayed that we devised a method capable to put in the most remote corner the probability to lose.
That's all players can do whenever they don't get a math edge.

See again.

We took the best bet (the less worse bet) any craps player in the world can utilize: the don't pass bet. Good starting.
Besides Banker side at baccarat and no card counting black jack this is the best bet any gambler can make in a casino. Differently to bj having a lower HE, at craps we can bet whenever we want.

What's the worst enemy of such DP bets? Any 7 or 11 rolled on first roll. Anything different from that will make us huge favorite to win.

What's the probability to be either huge advantaged or instant loser after the very first roll of any shooter? It's 77.15%/22.85%, 3.37 to 1.

This WL ratio is working just registering the very first roll, so we must take into account one of the several "positional" outcomes any roll could provide.
Dice has no memory. My chart does.

Imo, it doesn't need to be a rocket scientist to devise a method capable to try to statistically control at most the impact of such 3.37:1 ratio, providing the apparition of certain deviated situations. Not by martingaling or betting every hand or almost every hand, of course.

Part two.

After having skipped the instant losing situation we're mathematically going downhill.
Neverthless any point established will have a probability to repeat and a probability to sevening out varying respectively from 5/6 to 3/6.
Those probabilities will follow their mathematical expectancy forming some "statistical" lines. Thus we'll have more non repeating numbers than repeating numbers in relationship of their difficulty to repeat. And so on for more complex statistical situations.
But we have to take into account that a 45/55 probability, for example, can easily form streaks even of a certain lenght and that could happen to 1/2 probability situations also, the most favourable situations any DP bettor might encounter besides the 2 and 3 on first roll.

I mean that any regular DP bettor will go broke well more likely whenever certain consecutive series of 45/55 or 4/6 or 1/2 mathematically unfavored situations will appear (and they surely will) than after the first roll where the probability to lose is 1/3.37.

Therefore if the conditions dictates so, after any given point is established a DP bettor could place a bet right on the number supposed to repeat, still having a DP bet to balance it. Depending about the point established, a DP bettor could choose to get a small profit anyway or just freerolling to get a decent one.

Naturally everything is supposed to work not on mere quantities but about the natural deviations of the numbers' apparition.
And, yes, I'm a "rarer events come out in clusters" aficionado.

Here's another piece of advice. Find a new-ish dealer and play on their end. Pick up any overpayments when you do get paid and you'll be able to point out any times you got shorted. Bam. HE eliminated. People fail to realize the HE only becomes a factor when a game is perfectly dealt. The problem nowadays is craps dealers aren't good enough to catch a lot of the mistakes or they just don't care for a $5-$10 mistake here or there. We're going into ethics and morals, but honestly this or cheating are the only ways you'll ever win in this game!


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Clustering Illusion

I think.

Several sentences or parts of sentences in the quote appear to be words ordered in such a way that they don't have any coherent meaning.

1. Have fun.

2. Give as little vig as possible to the house. Ideally play only pass, come, don't pass or don't come. with as much odds as they will let you place or lay.

3. If you think you might be on a roll, press your bets a little at a time.

4. Study your game, but don't take advice from poker snobs.

Best strategy: grab some friends, grab some drinks and have fun losing money rolling dice

The last 2 posts are the best 2 itt. Seriously, I don't understand those who come to threads like this to remind everyone that whatever game in question is -EV in the long run. What determines whether or not a bet is a sucker bet is completely relative and arbitrary. Whatever you and however you choose to bet at the craps table, do a little research into how much you stand to lose in the long run, and what kind of swings you can expect. And if you find that it's something you can emotionally tolerate, then go have fun.

You were doing OK up to this point.

I bet that nobody here has ever read, just to make the stupidest example, Greisner's book.

How would the ev of that bet compare to your craps strategy?

I completely stand by this statement. Obviously your luck can change at any moment. Just as obviously we have all seen rolls where everyone made $5000 except the poor shmo who never pressed his $10 bet and made $150.

There is no connection between the outcome of the last trial and the outcome of the next trial. It doesn't really make sense to lower or raise your bet because you have been winning or losing, but then again it doesn't make sense to make the bet in the first place so I suppose it is irrational to expect any sort of rationality at all in the making of negative expectation wagers. I still stand by my strategy of not playing.

People sometimes make money playing negative expectation games. In craps, rolls happen, and people do make lots of money on them. If nobody ever won at craps, people wouldn't play.

You are welcome to sniff at people who do play, but you don't have much to contribute to the discussion.

Of course people get lucky in gambling. But when they bet on "a roll" in craps they are guaranteed to lose the next bet more than half the time. They would be better off flat betting and ignoring past results. They are just making a bad bet worse.

I see people all the time press place bets a few times that when the 7 does roll they have no idea how much they actually just lost. My advice would be to only press what you'd be willing to bet out of your rack

My advice would be to use the CPRR method.

Collect (same bet)
Press (up one unit)
Regress (down one unit)
Repeat

Of course you are correct, but imo any single bet is a minuscule part of the whole picture, albeit a picture "humanly" limited in some way.

For example, pass/don't pass craps bets produce a lesser amount of streaks and "long" streaks on any side than any other so called 50/50 game.
Thus there shouldn't be any point to hope to get those "long" streaks, expecially after some cutoff points had formed where the most hoped thing will be the less likely long term statistical scenario.

Naturally such difference in term of outcomes won't invert the house edge by itself, but it could help into limiting the random world in some way in order to possibly enhance the power of a well calibrated multilayered progression.

serious question, what do you do for money?

Me?

yes

Ok.
We just like to make a living on EV- games, that is trying to put the mathematical edge on casinos' ass.
So far we succeeded in that. Only by being lucky of course.

Do you want a list of our best bets in such unbeatable world?

yes

Ok.

First, you are not going to join a casino to have fun or something like that. You are there just to win money knowing you'll be disadvantaged most of the time. So the best thing to do is to set up a team for various reasons, mostly for related "emotional" issues.

We've found that the best bets to make is via card counting the baccarat 7 Fortune bet and/or the Panda bet on EZ tables, both getting a sure mathematical edge to the player. It's a diluted edge but a substantial one.

Next come the B/P baccarat hands distribution per any shoe and per any series of shoes. Along with other studies, we've found particularly useful the ''symmetrical patterns from asymmetrical relationships'' concept. No mathematical edge though, just common sense and thousands and thousands of tests made.

Baccarat side bets concerning pairs and ties come next. Unfortunately they rarely get the player any edge without utilizing an illegal electronic device.

Then it comes craps world.

According to other studies and our statistics, we've found that streaks are a relatively rare pattern here, expecially when taking into account pass line streaks.
Starting from the concept that don't pass line bets are long term winners (besides the 12 first roll being a push, so getting the house an edge on those wagers) and knowing that pass lines bets will stop more often than not after some spots, we tried to devise an empirical method capable to put us in the idilliac situation of being either totally wrong in only one spot (this happening less well than one time over 4 attempts on average) or fantastically right on the other one even if the subsequent less likely repeat occurred.

Naturally the whole process is EV- no matter what, our purpose was trying to limit by a multilayered progression the field of distinct possibilities that itlr will get closer and closer to their theorical expectancy.

Some authors suggested to only bet DPB after a couple of pass lines had occurred as there are more streaks of pass lines of 2 than superior streaks (and vice versa), still this kind of strategy will encounter a lot of variance as it doesn't take into account some related statistical features.
And the main enemy remains the same. The first roll.