Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Other Gambling Games Discussion about other gambling games.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 05-21-2009, 06:51 PM   #26
VBAces
old hand
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 1,776
Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

I really think you need to run it without the ties, so that a majority of the hands are losses. From a betting standpoint there is no difference between LLLLLTLLLL and
LLLLLLLLL

effectively they are both 9 consecutive losses
VBAces is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-24-2009, 11:02 PM   #27
Gullanian
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Gullanian's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: London
Posts: 13,916
Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

If you lose 5 in a row, stand up, take a break cool down for a bit then come back to the table. You wont lose the next 5.
Gullanian is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-26-2009, 08:55 PM   #28
ConZy
enthusiast
 
ConZy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 92
Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

It isn't very rare to have 10 hands losing streak.

Played 3000 hands the weekend before and had

1x 9+ hands losing

1x 11+ hands losing

6x 11+ hands not winning
ConZy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-27-2009, 04:04 PM   #29
jmark
Pooh-Bah
 
jmark's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: US
Posts: 3,790
Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

Quote:
Originally Posted by VBAces View Post
I really think you need to run it without the ties, so that a majority of the hands are losses. From a betting standpoint there is no difference between LLLLLTLLLL and
LLLLLLLLL

effectively they are both 9 consecutive losses
Sure, but LLLL-WLL-LLLL is also effectively 9 consecutive losses then.
jmark is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-04-2009, 01:36 AM   #30
IOwnlyPlayAtStars
centurion
 
IOwnlyPlayAtStars's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Cincinnati, Ohio.
Posts: 175
Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

Quote:
Originally Posted by W3akT1ght View Post
I just wondered how I would work out the chances of losing 9-10 consecutive hands at Blackjack, assuming a 6-deck shoe, surrender allowed and dealer stands on all 17's

Is there an easy way to work this out?
I'm thinking OP is trying to calculate the "Martingale system."

Bet 1- $5 - lose.
Bet 2 -$10- lose.
Bet 3- $20- lose.
Bet 4- $40- lose.
Bet 5- $80- lose.
Bet 6- $160- lose.
Bet 7- $320- lose.
Bet 8- $640- lose.
Bet 9- $1280- lose.
Bet 10- $2460- win/ not really thou. Because table max was $1500, and casino not let you place $2460 bet.
IOwnlyPlayAtStars is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 08:05 PM   #31
Maso777
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Maso777's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 6,962
Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

You lose much more then 50%, I forget how to calculate it but remember you get paid extra on BJs, can double down in +EV spots etc..

I'm just guessing here but I think the chance to lose a hand is at least 55%
Maso777 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-12-2009, 04:54 PM   #32
springzz
Pooh-Bah
 
springzz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: canada
Posts: 4,849
Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

If you play optimal blackjack strategy, the house has a 52-48 edge
(not taking into account pushes, becuase why would you anyways, if you lose 5 hands, then push 1, then lose another 5, you've lost 10 in a row essentially fwiw).
Wtf at whoever said you're over 50 to win? That's idiotic.

But yeah just do .52 ^ 10

= 0.14455 %
springzz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-26-2011, 01:40 PM   #33
Diddy Kong
stranger
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 2
Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

Quote:
Originally Posted by IOwnlyPlayAtStars View Post
I'm thinking OP is trying to calculate the "Martingale system."

Bet 1- $5 - lose.
Bet 2 -$10- lose.
Bet 3- $20- lose.
Bet 4- $40- lose.
Bet 5- $80- lose.
Bet 6- $160- lose.
Bet 7- $320- lose.
Bet 8- $640- lose.
Bet 9- $1280- lose.
Bet 10- $2460- win/ not really thou. Because table max was $1500, and casino not let you place $2460 bet.
Are there no casino's that allow you to bet more than £1,500?

If so, then that system can work.
Diddy Kong is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-26-2011, 06:42 PM   #34
Yarbles
Pooh-Bah
 
Yarbles's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: chicken milk
Posts: 4,979
Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

Quote:
Originally Posted by NajdorfDefense View Post
One of my former card-counting buds lost 16 hands in a row [in AC ftl] and quit forever. It was pretty lol in a variety of ways.

It's really hard to lose 16 in a row.
I lost 9 in a row on 100 min table betting min and seeing 1 ten. Then upped my bet to 500 lost 4 more then bet 1 k lost then 1100 and got dealt 20 vs dealer bj. Fml I did not quit playing but can honestly say I'm longterm up in bj overall for 1k> less wins. Every time I go for big payout playing higher I always get crushed. But I can sit and rape 15 and 25 tables all day
Yarbles is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-26-2011, 06:44 PM   #35
Yarbles
Pooh-Bah
 
Yarbles's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: chicken milk
Posts: 4,979
Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

Quote:
Originally Posted by IOwnlyPlayAtStars View Post
I'm thinking OP is trying to calculate the "Martingale system."

Bet 1- $5 - lose.
Bet 2 -$10- lose.
Bet 3- $20- lose.
Bet 4- $40- lose.
Bet 5- $80- lose.
Bet 6- $160- lose.
Bet 7- $320- lose.
Bet 8- $640- lose.
Bet 9- $1280- lose.
Bet 10- $2460- win/ not really thou. Because table max was $1500, and casino not let you place $2460 bet.
Tell them what ur doing I will put money on it they will let u bet more then Table max.
Yarbles is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-26-2011, 07:10 PM   #36
spadebidder
Actually Shows Proof
 
spadebidder's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: This looks interesting.
Posts: 7,903
Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

Quote:
Originally Posted by springzz View Post
If you play optimal blackjack strategy, the house has a 52-48 edge
(not taking into account pushes, becuase why would you anyways, if you lose 5 hands, then push 1, then lose another 5, you've lost 10 in a row essentially fwiw).
Wtf at whoever said you're over 50 to win? That's idiotic.

But yeah just do .52 ^ 10

= 0.14455 %
No.

Playing perfect basic strategy against common standard rules you will win about 42% of the hands dealt. That also remains constant with card counting except at rare extreme counts, but you just win more from bet scaling when counting. The dealer will always win 49% of hands, and the other 9% is pushes. (rounded numbers)

So if we ignore pushes, then on any given hand our chance to lose the hand is about 49/(49+42)=54%. Getting 10 in a row (counting only win/loss hands) at 54% is pretty common. If we play 1000 hands the chance to see a streak of 10 losses is about 62%. We go past 50/50 at about 700 hands.

The house edge is not based on hands won, it's based on money won (lost) and you put more on the table on splits and doubles.

Last edited by spadebidder; 09-26-2011 at 07:16 PM. Reason: I now see this thread is old and was bumped today.
spadebidder is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-26-2011, 07:13 PM   #37
NajdorfDefense
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
NajdorfDefense's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Looking forward to AA
Posts: 16,096
Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

epic troll bump
NajdorfDefense is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-26-2011, 08:03 PM   #38
Diddy Kong
stranger
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 2
Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

Quote:
Originally Posted by NajdorfDefense View Post
epic troll bump
Thanks.

What is the longest amount of hands people have had on BJ without winning?
Diddy Kong is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-27-2011, 01:13 AM   #39
Double Down
old hand
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Studio City, CA
Posts: 1,987
Quote:
Originally Posted by Peeig View Post
Just a question, if playing BlackJack, you only lose 48% of the hands you play and sometimes they pay you 3 to 2 on your wins, but your losses are flat, how is there a house edge? Am I missing something here? Seems like losing 51 or 52% of your hands played would make more sense.....someone please splain to me.
If I remember correctly, you lose 48%, you win 43%, and you push 9%. So you're at a.pretty big disadvantage based on that. All.of the times you double and split, getting more money on the table when you have the best of it, closes the gap. That plus the bj bonus every 21 hands makes it a near break even game, depending on the rules.
Double Down is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-27-2011, 01:55 AM   #40
SheetWise
banned
 
SheetWise's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Phoenix
Posts: 4,677
Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

Quote:
Originally Posted by Diddy Kong View Post
Thanks.

What is the longest amount of hands people have had on BJ without winning?
I never counted hands -- or factored in compound wagers -- but I do remember one trip that landed somewhere around negative five SD's that really tested my meddle. Took six months -- two winning progressions -- just to get back to even. Then we went on for the win -- about six months late. It does happen. It sucks. Prepare for it. As long as you can proportion down, and you're not lying to yourself about your win rate, it all works out in time.
SheetWise is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-27-2011, 04:52 AM   #41
acesholdup
old hand
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 1,390
Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

Quote:
Originally Posted by spadebidder View Post
No.

Playing perfect basic strategy against common standard rules you will win about 42% of the hands dealt. That also remains constant with card counting except at rare extreme counts, but you just win more from bet scaling when counting.
This isn't exactly true. There are a number of index plays that effect win % (some improve it, some decrease it slightly but increase ev) at far less than extreme counts, particularly if you don't leave on slightly negative counts. The close enough for horseshoes estimates aren't going to change but the last sentence there isn't right.
acesholdup is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-27-2011, 08:19 AM   #42
spadebidder
Actually Shows Proof
 
spadebidder's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: This looks interesting.
Posts: 7,903
Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

Quote:
Originally Posted by acesholdup View Post
This isn't exactly true. There are a number of index plays that effect win % (some improve it, some decrease it slightly but increase ev) at far less than extreme counts, particularly if you don't leave on slightly negative counts. The close enough for horseshoes estimates aren't going to change but the last sentence there isn't right.
A particular index affects one specific hand, but has very little effect on the overall hand winrate. It varies less than +/- 1 percent except at rare counts. I'll find the table showing the actual data.

Edit:
http://www.blackjackincolor.com/truecount5.htm

Chart is using Hi-Lo max indexes (over 100).
"There is a common misconception that you win many more hands at higher counts. Unfortunately this is not true. This chart displays the percentage of hands won, lost and pushed at each count. The win percentage, in red, does slightly increase. However, it only increases from 41.6% of hands at a true count of -18, to 42.7% at TC zero to about 44% at TC +18."
If we just look at -10 to +10 the line is virtually flat at 42.x%. Counts outside that range almost never happen. Over +10 the win rate starts going up slightly to 44% at +18. TC +18 never happens.

http://www.blackjackincolor.com/truecount1.htm

The ratio of losses and pushes shifts a little more than the wins line, with positive counts causing more pushes (but not significantly more wins). The loss line for count -10 to +10 is about 9.5%-11%. So a total range of +/- less than 1% still.

The actual numbers are also somewhere on Wizard of Odds.

Last edited by spadebidder; 09-27-2011 at 08:48 AM.
spadebidder is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-27-2011, 08:52 AM   #43
acesholdup
old hand
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 1,390
Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

Quote:
Originally Posted by spadebidder View Post
A particular index affects one specific hand, but has very little effect on the overall hand winrate. It varies less than +/- 1 percent except at rare counts. I'll find the table showing the actual data.

Edit:
http://www.blackjackincolor.com/truecount5.htm

Chart is using Hi-Lo max indexes (over 100).
"There is a common misconception that you win many more hands at higher counts. Unfortunately this is not true. This chart displays the percentage of hands won, lost and pushed at each count. The win percentage, in red, does slightly increase. However, it only increases from 41.6% of hands at a true count of -18, to 42.7% at TC zero to about 44% at TC +18."
If we just look at -10 to +10 the line is virtually flat at 42.x%. Counts outside that range almost never happen. Over +10 the win rate starts going up slightly to 44% at +18. TC +18 never happens.

http://www.blackjackincolor.com/truecount1.htm

The ratio of losses and pushes shifts a little more than the wins line, with positive counts causing more pushes (but not significantly more wins). The loss line for count -10 to +10 is about 9.5%-11%. So a total range of +/- less than 1% still.

The actual numbers are also somewhere on Wizard of Odds.
I agree with all of this. Was being a bit of a nit the last few words of it particularly "just" just seemed a little off/potentially somewhat mis-leading to me.
acesholdup is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-27-2011, 11:39 AM   #44
spadebidder
Actually Shows Proof
 
spadebidder's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: This looks interesting.
Posts: 7,903
Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

Quote:
Originally Posted by acesholdup View Post
I agree with all of this. Was being a bit of a nit the last few words of it particularly "just" just seemed a little off/potentially somewhat mis-leading to me.
I understand now and agree.
spadebidder is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-28-2011, 12:23 AM   #45
Polsk23
grinder
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Home of the Ducks
Posts: 557
Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

People are assuming that you are guaranteed to make it to the tenth hand which is clearly not true
Polsk23 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-21-2011, 09:30 PM   #46
mvc2jg
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 51
Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

I've won 10 in a row before, so it's possible. Dunno exact percentages though.
mvc2jg is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-27-2011, 03:26 AM   #47
Eeyorefora
old hand
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 1,438
Quote:
Originally Posted by Diddy Kong View Post
Thanks.

What is the longest amount of hands people have had on BJ without winning?
The last time I played BJ I lost 42 hands in a row,no pushes, lost.
Never will play again,that was over ten years ago.
The dealer still remembers me.He is now in management and I saw him last year,he calls me "Lucky".
Eeyorefora is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-27-2011, 11:29 AM   #48
nyc999
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
nyc999's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 17,813
Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

No idea, but my last time in AC I sat down with $300 on a $25 table, and lost 12 consecutive hands. So very possible.
nyc999 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-27-2011, 11:37 PM   #49
SheetWise
banned
 
SheetWise's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Phoenix
Posts: 4,677
Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

Quote:
Originally Posted by nyc999 View Post
No idea, but my last time in AC I sat down with $300 on a $25 table, and lost 12 consecutive hands. So very possible.
Those are the ones you remember -- quick and dirty accounting.
SheetWise is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-28-2011, 09:22 AM   #50
nyc999
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
nyc999's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 17,813
Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

Quote:
Originally Posted by SheetWise View Post
Those are the ones you remember -- quick and dirty accounting.
No doubt...I actually think I've ran pretty close to expectation over the past 10 years.
nyc999 is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:22 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2016, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Search Engine Optimisation provided by DragonByte SEO v2.0.33 (Pro) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2016 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2010, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online