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Old 05-07-2009, 07:30 AM   #16
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Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

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Originally Posted by Peeig View Post
Just a question, if playing BlackJack, you only lose 48% of the hands you play and sometimes they pay you 3 to 2 on your wins, but your losses are flat, how is there a house edge? Am I missing something here? Seems like losing 51 or 52% of your hands played would make more sense.....someone please splain to me.
You get paid 3-2 on your blackjacks, not on every win
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Old 05-07-2009, 06:43 PM   #17
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Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

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Originally Posted by willyc View Post
On average you lose about 48% of hands. Losing 10 in a row is therefore approximately .00065 = .065%
You will never win over 50% of the hands -- on average, or on specific counts.

Where did you get that number from willyc?
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Old 05-07-2009, 11:19 PM   #18
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Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

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Originally Posted by Peeig View Post
Just a question, if playing BlackJack, you only lose 48% of the hands you play and sometimes they pay you 3 to 2 on your wins, but your losses are flat, how is there a house edge? Am I missing something here? Seems like losing 51 or 52% of your hands played would make more sense.....someone please splain to me.
I am no expert, but if you lose 48%, then you have 52% to be split up between wins and pushes. So, it would make the most sense that you win a fair bit less than you lose and push the rest. This would explain why the house would still have an edge despite paying you 3:2 on some of your wins, etc.

-RMJ
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Old 05-08-2009, 01:03 AM   #19
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Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

1 in 9 or 10
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Old 05-08-2009, 02:00 AM   #20
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Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

Player win streaks are short and infrequent, while dealer winning streaks are long and frequent.
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Old 05-08-2009, 10:32 AM   #21
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Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

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Originally Posted by bwolf View Post
You get paid 3-2 on your blackjacks, not on every win
obviously, which is why I said "sometimes"

the guy who mentioned the pushes, I forgot about that, hard to believe it is as high as 4% of the time or so, but I don't know the maths so I won't argue.
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Old 05-08-2009, 01:25 PM   #22
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Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

i guess a way to figure this out would be to run a simulation seeing how many individual hands you win both counting splits as additional hands and not counting splits as additional hands and the number is somewhere in between.
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Old 05-08-2009, 04:31 PM   #23
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Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

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Originally Posted by Peeig View Post
the guy who mentioned the pushes, I forgot about that, hard to believe it is as high as 4% of the time or so, but I don't know the maths so I won't argue.
I didn't really know either, I just inferred that pushes had to play a large enough role. Anyway, I was curious enough to google for an answer. No idea how legit, but the 48% figure lines up with what the other guy said...

"The casino usually wins 48% of blackjack hands on average, players win 43%, and 9% of hands are a push. A player’s 5% disadvantage in win frequency is offset by payouts for naturals, and extra profit on splits and doubles."

-RMJ
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Old 05-09-2009, 12:54 AM   #24
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Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

100% if you tried to lose every hand
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Old 05-10-2009, 05:13 PM   #25
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Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

I ran a couple of large samples using the percentages above (48%L, 43%W, 9%T - I have no idea if these numbers are accurate).

Anyway, I ran 11 samples of 25K hands, and the number of series of 10 consecutive losses within that sample ranged from a minimum of 6 to a max of 27. Not a lot of testing, but seems pretty likely over that size sample the odds of losing 10 in a row at one point are 100%.

I cut a second sample down to only 2500 hands, which I think is about what someone who plays only a few times a year would actually play. I ran 100 samples at this size:

n=100 (samples)
mean= 2.1 (series)
stdev=2.63
min=0, max=12

I should run more, but the likelihood is that even if you play recreationally only a few times a year you will still in all probability have this happen to you at least once.
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Old 05-21-2009, 06:51 PM   #26
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Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

I really think you need to run it without the ties, so that a majority of the hands are losses. From a betting standpoint there is no difference between LLLLLTLLLL and
LLLLLLLLL

effectively they are both 9 consecutive losses
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Old 05-24-2009, 11:02 PM   #27
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Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

If you lose 5 in a row, stand up, take a break cool down for a bit then come back to the table. You wont lose the next 5.
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Old 05-26-2009, 08:55 PM   #28
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Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

It isn't very rare to have 10 hands losing streak.

Played 3000 hands the weekend before and had

1x 9+ hands losing

1x 11+ hands losing

6x 11+ hands not winning
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Old 05-27-2009, 04:04 PM   #29
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Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

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Originally Posted by VBAces View Post
I really think you need to run it without the ties, so that a majority of the hands are losses. From a betting standpoint there is no difference between LLLLLTLLLL and
LLLLLLLLL

effectively they are both 9 consecutive losses
Sure, but LLLL-WLL-LLLL is also effectively 9 consecutive losses then.
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Old 06-04-2009, 01:36 AM   #30
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Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

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Originally Posted by W3akT1ght View Post
I just wondered how I would work out the chances of losing 9-10 consecutive hands at Blackjack, assuming a 6-deck shoe, surrender allowed and dealer stands on all 17's

Is there an easy way to work this out?
I'm thinking OP is trying to calculate the "Martingale system."

Bet 1- $5 - lose.
Bet 2 -$10- lose.
Bet 3- $20- lose.
Bet 4- $40- lose.
Bet 5- $80- lose.
Bet 6- $160- lose.
Bet 7- $320- lose.
Bet 8- $640- lose.
Bet 9- $1280- lose.
Bet 10- $2460- win/ not really thou. Because table max was $1500, and casino not let you place $2460 bet.
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