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 04-19-2009, 01:34 PM #1 W3akT1ght newbie   Join Date: Feb 2009 Location: Trying to avoid Blackjack Posts: 43 Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row I just wondered how I would work out the chances of losing 9-10 consecutive hands at Blackjack, assuming a 6-deck shoe, surrender allowed and dealer stands on all 17's Is there an easy way to work this out?
 04-19-2009, 02:31 PM #2 kyleb Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: Seattle Posts: 38,997 Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row 50/50
04-19-2009, 06:24 PM   #3
Biggle10
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Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: St. Louis/ Ultimate Frisbee pitch
Posts: 2,807
Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

Quote:
 Originally Posted by W3akT1ght I just wondered how I would work out the chances of losing 9-10 consecutive hands at Blackjack, assuming a 6-deck shoe, surrender allowed and dealer stands on all 17's Is there an easy way to work this out?
You'll have to look up the exact house edge with these rules, but let's say you lose 51%. The answer is then 0.51 ^ 10 = 0.11%

 04-19-2009, 06:49 PM #4 RudeboyOi Pooh-Bah     Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 4,119 Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row well this is a sort of a tricky question. you dont figure it out by knowing the house edge. im going to guess you lose 47% of the hands you play since there are times where you will bust first and the dealer will bust but youre the one who ends up losing. to make up for this, the casino gives you the option of splitting or doubling and paying 3:2 on blackjack. so im gonna guess its (.53)^9 for 9hands or (.53)^10 for 10hands.
 04-19-2009, 07:33 PM #5 mr adam d grinder     Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 549 Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row Since you're likely thinking of betting \$5, then bet \$10 if you lose, then \$20 if you lose that, etc thinking it's easy money do it. The odds of losing 10 straight hands is ridiculously low. Go for it buddy
 04-19-2009, 09:28 PM #6 Davdob veteran     Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: New Zealand, The 80s Posts: 2,068 Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row In my experience, every time you sit down to play blackjack.
04-20-2009, 09:00 AM   #7
Biggle10
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Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: St. Louis/ Ultimate Frisbee pitch
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Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

Quote:
 Originally Posted by RudeboyOi well this is a sort of a tricky question. you dont figure it out by knowing the house edge. im going to guess you lose 47% of the hands you play since there are times where you will bust first and the dealer will bust but youre the one who ends up losing. to make up for this, the casino gives you the option of splitting or doubling and paying 3:2 on blackjack. so im gonna guess its (.53)^9 for 9hands or (.53)^10 for 10hands.
Good point. Plus the times you make up money by splitting and doubling down.

 04-20-2009, 07:54 PM #8 SheetWise banned     Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Phoenix Posts: 4,677 Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row It's a lot easier to lose 10 consecutive bets than to lose 10 consecutive hands -- do you consider a split two hands?
 04-22-2009, 03:45 PM #9 MangoPort old hand   Join Date: Mar 2009 Location: Toronto Posts: 1,287 Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row Previous posts have pretty much nailed the math on the head, but in my experience I can tell you the odds are actually a little different: Probability of Losing 10 in a Row = (BAC*(Bankroll/BankAccount)) * (NOTISIWNPBJA) BAC = Blood Alcohol Concentration Bankroll = Amount Willing to Gamble Bank Account = Total Amount in your checking + Savings account NOTISIWNPBJA = Number of Times I Said I Would Never Play BlackJack Again So for a typical 22 year old, with a BAC of 0.160 (twice the legal limit), a bankroll of \$1000 with only \$500 in his bankaccount (so 1500 total), who has said "Never again!" 3 times, the Probability of losing 10 hands in a row is: = 0.160 * (1000/1500) * 3 = 0.32, or 32% chance he loses 10 in a row.
 04-22-2009, 11:09 PM #10 NajdorfDefense Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Looking forward to AA Posts: 16,156 Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row One of my former card-counting buds lost 16 hands in a row [in AC ftl] and quit forever. It was pretty lol in a variety of ways. It's really hard to lose 16 in a row.
04-24-2009, 10:17 PM   #11
willyc

Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: multitabling live
Posts: 1,019
Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Biggle10 You'll have to look up the exact house edge with these rules, but let's say you lose 51%. The answer is then 0.51 ^ 10 = 0.11%
No. The house edge does not equal the probability of losing a hand.

On average you lose about 48% of hands. Losing 10 in a row is therefore approximately .00065 = .065%

04-24-2009, 10:21 PM   #12
willyc

Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: multitabling live
Posts: 1,019
Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

Quote:
 Originally Posted by NajdorfDefense It's really hard to lose 16 in a row.
Should happen once or twice a year to a serious card counter.

 05-07-2009, 07:16 AM #13 blizzardfest70 banned     Join Date: May 2009 Location: at the nearest casino Posts: 90 Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row what is the chance of losing 21 bj hands in a row? that happened to me before thus making me quit playing blackjack. i swear i thought it was rigged
 05-07-2009, 07:16 AM #14 blizzardfest70 banned     Join Date: May 2009 Location: at the nearest casino Posts: 90 Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row sometimes I feel like playing by the book really ****s me up more than it has helped me..
05-07-2009, 07:26 AM   #15
Peeig

Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Living like an Athlete
Posts: 893
Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

Quote:
 Originally Posted by willyc No. The house edge does not equal the probability of losing a hand. On average you lose about 48% of hands. Losing 10 in a row is therefore approximately .00065 = .065%
Just a question, if playing BlackJack, you only lose 48% of the hands you play and sometimes they pay you 3 to 2 on your wins, but your losses are flat, how is there a house edge? Am I missing something here? Seems like losing 51 or 52% of your hands played would make more sense.....someone please splain to me.

05-07-2009, 07:30 AM   #16
bwolf
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Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 290
Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Peeig Just a question, if playing BlackJack, you only lose 48% of the hands you play and sometimes they pay you 3 to 2 on your wins, but your losses are flat, how is there a house edge? Am I missing something here? Seems like losing 51 or 52% of your hands played would make more sense.....someone please splain to me.
You get paid 3-2 on your blackjacks, not on every win

05-07-2009, 06:43 PM   #17
SheetWise
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Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Phoenix
Posts: 4,677
Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

Quote:
 Originally Posted by willyc On average you lose about 48% of hands. Losing 10 in a row is therefore approximately .00065 = .065%
You will never win over 50% of the hands -- on average, or on specific counts.

Where did you get that number from willyc?

05-07-2009, 11:19 PM   #18
RocketManJames

Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 1,131
Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Peeig Just a question, if playing BlackJack, you only lose 48% of the hands you play and sometimes they pay you 3 to 2 on your wins, but your losses are flat, how is there a house edge? Am I missing something here? Seems like losing 51 or 52% of your hands played would make more sense.....someone please splain to me.
I am no expert, but if you lose 48%, then you have 52% to be split up between wins and pushes. So, it would make the most sense that you win a fair bit less than you lose and push the rest. This would explain why the house would still have an edge despite paying you 3:2 on some of your wins, etc.

-RMJ

 05-08-2009, 01:03 AM #19 pohlr96 old hand     Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 1,414 Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row 1 in 9 or 10
 05-08-2009, 02:00 AM #20 cres Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 10,340 Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row Player win streaks are short and infrequent, while dealer winning streaks are long and frequent.
05-08-2009, 10:32 AM   #21
Peeig

Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Living like an Athlete
Posts: 893
Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

Quote:
 Originally Posted by bwolf You get paid 3-2 on your blackjacks, not on every win
obviously, which is why I said "sometimes"

the guy who mentioned the pushes, I forgot about that, hard to believe it is as high as 4% of the time or so, but I don't know the maths so I won't argue.

 05-08-2009, 01:25 PM #22 RudeboyOi Pooh-Bah     Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 4,119 Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row i guess a way to figure this out would be to run a simulation seeing how many individual hands you win both counting splits as additional hands and not counting splits as additional hands and the number is somewhere in between.
05-08-2009, 04:31 PM   #23
RocketManJames

Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 1,131
Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Peeig the guy who mentioned the pushes, I forgot about that, hard to believe it is as high as 4% of the time or so, but I don't know the maths so I won't argue.
I didn't really know either, I just inferred that pushes had to play a large enough role. Anyway, I was curious enough to google for an answer. No idea how legit, but the 48% figure lines up with what the other guy said...

"The casino usually wins 48% of blackjack hands on average, players win 43%, and 9% of hands are a push. A player’s 5% disadvantage in win frequency is offset by payouts for naturals, and extra profit on splits and doubles."

-RMJ

 05-09-2009, 12:54 AM #24 fishnchipsplease grinder     Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: Brrrrmingham Posts: 476 Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row 100% if you tried to lose every hand
 05-10-2009, 05:13 PM #25 rgold79 journeyman   Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 304 Re: Chance of losing 10 BJ hands in a row I ran a couple of large samples using the percentages above (48%L, 43%W, 9%T - I have no idea if these numbers are accurate). Anyway, I ran 11 samples of 25K hands, and the number of series of 10 consecutive losses within that sample ranged from a minimum of 6 to a max of 27. Not a lot of testing, but seems pretty likely over that size sample the odds of losing 10 in a row at one point are 100%. I cut a second sample down to only 2500 hands, which I think is about what someone who plays only a few times a year would actually play. I ran 100 samples at this size: n=100 (samples) mean= 2.1 (series) stdev=2.63 min=0, max=12 I should run more, but the likelihood is that even if you play recreationally only a few times a year you will still in all probability have this happen to you at least once.

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