There has been a great deal written on card counting and nothing that I am about to say today is novel in any way shape or form. there are a number of serious resources out there for aspiring blackjack players, such as the blackjackinfo.com archived forums (and the rest of that site is all gold as well), bj21.com (stanford wong's site) as well as blackjackforumonline.com (the info is a touch dated but still valuable and certainly an interesting read at the least).


The theory behind card counting is this. Because the house edge of blackjack using basic strategy is so small, usually .5%, then the removal of certain cards from the shoe (as they are played) can alter the odds of the game. So a six being played for example may shift the odds in favour of the player by .1%, leaving the house edge at only .4%. If over the course of the shoe more low cards are dealt out than high cards, the advantage climbs. Typically card counters wager with a 1 to 2% advantage. And as Benny Binion said "give me a tenth of a percent and enough time and I will break any man in the world". High cards favour the player because they complete our key double downs and because blackjacks pay us 3:2.

How to count cards.

The first thing you must do is learn basic strategy. Basic strategy changes depending which casino you are playing. There is actually a game which teaches you basic strategy.

https://www.blackjackinfo.com/blackj...ategy-trainer/

So you just go there, plug in the rules for the casino you will be playing at, and you play the game and it tells you every time you make a mistake. So if you play it for a few hours you should have that particular basic strategy rule set mastered. It is vital not to make any basic strategy mistakes, since even a few errors can cancel out your edge. This simulator is also countable.

At this point you will want to invest in a discard tray and dealing shoe as well as decks of cards. You want to simulate the casino environment as best as you can before you start risking your money.

So once you have mastered basic strategy, the next thing is to learn how to count. There are two very simple drills that can help you here. The first is to take a deck of cards. Place one card face up on the table. Now, at this point you are not even counting. What you are doing is associating tag values. There are three tag values. Plus. Minus. Neutral. Plus is 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6. Neutral is 7, 8 and 9. Minus is T, J, Q, K and A. So you simply flip through the deck one at a time and say to yourself either "PLUS" "MINUS" or "NEUTRAL" depending on what card it is. And the point here is simply to establish a connection between the card and it's tag value. You are training yourself to think of these cards as simply PLUS, MINUS or NEUTRAL. And you do this until you are totally comfortable with it, however long it takes. Probably shouldn't take long, but if you feel like you need more time doing it, keep doing it. It is far better to be patient and master this activity carefully as opposed to rushing through it and going broke.

The second drill is to flip through a deck of cards and now keep count. So you start off with a five, and think to yourself 'ONE'. Then you get a 7, which is neutral, so you think again 'ONE'. Then you get a 4, and you think to yourself 'TWO'. Then a jack so you think 'ONE'. So just flip through the cards slowly, and keep count. If you did it correctly, then you should be able to predict the last card as it will be the opposite of your count. That is, if your count at the end is plus one, then the card will be a high card. IF it is -1 it will be a low card.

So once you can count, you then need to know about the true count. So what we have discussed previously was the running count. It goes up or down depending on the cards dealt. But what we are really concerned with is the true count, or count per deck. So to get the true count you divide by the running count by the decks remaining. Let's say the dealer has dealt out 2 decks of a 6 deck shoe. That is 4 decks remaining. So if the running count was 7 you would divide 7 by 4 and come up with a True Count of 1.75. This is a roughly 1% advantage for the player depending on rules. All of our betting and playing decisions are made with True Count figures. So this is something you can practice as you play through a shoe, keeping the running count and also converting to the true count. It will be difficult initially, but eventually you will do it instantly, which is why it is ABSOLUTELY VITAL that you spend time practicing at home until you are perfect. Do not just rush out to a casino. Practice, practice, practice.

Deviations :

There are many deviations from basic strategy. Most of the gain can be captured by 20 or core ones which I will enumerate but if you become a serious blackjack player you should always keep learning more.

16 v T : 0. Any time the running count is positive stay on 16 vs T.
15 v T : +4. Any time the true count is +4 or higher, stay on 15.


(more to come later)

Insurance : +3
A8 v 5,6 :double at +1
A9 v 5, 6 :double at +6
44 v 4 : split at +1
8 v 6 : double at +3
8 v 5 : double at +5
9 v 2 : double at +1
9 v 7 : double at +5
10 v 9 : double at -1
10 v T : double at +6
13 v 2 : hit at -1
13 v 3 : hit at -1
12 v 2 : stay at +2
12 v 2 : stay at +3
A3 v 4 : double at +1


note a8 v 6 is bs double in H17 game.


So after you have learned how to count, learned your basic strategy and memorized 20 or so indice plays, what is next?

Practice, practice, practice. Play shoe after shoe. Use a simple 1-4-8-12 betting structure for TC 1, 2, 3, 4 . Get used to making your playing and betting decisions, which are hopefully by this point automatic, while keeping the count. Practice, practice, practice. If you have someone to deal for you then it is also helpful to practice maintaining a conversation with them while you count and make playing and betting decisions.


The Kelly Criterion

Simply put Kelly betting is the fastest way to double your bankroll assuming an even money gamble. Technically blackjack is not an even money wager, since you have doubles and splits and blackjacks (oh my). Because of this you must adjust for the variance of the game. So kelly says if you have a 1% edge you bet 1% of your bankroll. So to bet full kelly on blackjack you would bet .7% of your bankroll when you had a 1% edge (roughly TC 2 or TC 3).

But many of us have found, especially if you are managing a large bankroll, that full kelly is too wild a ride. There is a 70% chance of losing 30% of your bankroll when betting full kelly (IIRC). so while it is the fastest way to make money, many people are happier to accept lessened returns for less risk. Often players bet 1/4 Kelly. So when you have 1 % edge you would actually bet .28% of your bankroll. You can use a simulator to determine your edge (as well as win rate, variance, and other cool info) and to construct an optimal betting spread. I recommend 1/4 kelly or less. never put more than 1% of your bankroll in play at the start of a round.


Blackjack can make for a very nice side income for a professional gambler. A lot of famous gamblers, like David Skalansky and Mason Malmuth, made most or a decent amount anyway of their money playing blackjack (or at least it said so in one of their books). And card counting is just the beginning. More advanced techniques, like hole carding, provide returns which far outpace the meager 1 or 2 % that card counting offers. use a short asian girl as a spotter. 1 or 2% isn't bad, of course, the casino only has 1% on the vast majority of the baccarat action, but they do okay; you just have to be able to handle the swings.

Once you hone your skills as a counter, if you are already a poker pro well first of all you might have the bankroll, which is critical, but now you will be able to game select between both poker and blackjack for whatever is more profitable. Most likely you play both. Now instead of waiting for a seat in a card room you can grind blackjack while you wait. You might discover more profitable opportunities, like an error prone dealer or a flasher. Casinos have deep pockets; they make for great opponents.

Cover is making deviations from optimal play for longevity. I do not recommend any cover. Your edge as a counter is already pretty thin; they want to back you off, it's not really a big deal. Obviously you should not try to get backed off, and after you play for a couple years it is very easy to fit in. At the start of my career I got backed off frequently; in the latter years it was only a few way the **** out there joints that I had to play til backed off basically just to make up expenses that I ever got the boot from. A lot of places I put down action, for a long time. Long sessions, high stakes, heads up play, and they don't even notice. It's great. The key is to not act like you are doing anything out of the ordinary. it helps too if you are a bit gregarious with the house, but not overly so, and you don't want to talk too much and lose count. image is important as is 'act'. but mostly card counters are so rare that casinos rightfully do not devote a lot of resources to defeating them. counters are 1 in 1000, and the plops keep trucking it in so fast that honestly who cares if u get a nibble or two.

unfortunately there aren't really a lot of exciting blackjack hands, especially after you have played for a few years. you split, you double, BFD.

you really, really want to play heads up. heads up can be up to 300 rounds an hour, vs 50 at a crowded slow table. you want a fast dealer and heads up play. This is so important. Rules and penetration matter as well. It's important to analyze the different games you have access to with a simulator and compare win rates, variance, etc. 'SCORE' is one means of comparing games (if you buy CVCX from QFIT it gives you the score of games).

Significant EV's can be generated, especially if you have a big bankroll and good games. If you have a six figure bankroll (a big if, perhaps) then 3 figure EVs are fairly easy to generate (hourly, ldo) and 4 figure EVs are possible. The best game I ever played in card counting was 6 deck, H17, ES10, DAS, DA2, RSA. only 1 deck cut off. playing heads up against a fast dealer this game is 2k hourly. I was spreading up to two hands of 1k table max. And I got action for years at these joints. Actually I did play some better games. 4 deck ES10 w/ half deck cut (all same rules) was nice. $500 max and crowded though. or worse rules but even better pene (6 decks with significantly less than 1 deck cut off). I remember I was at this last joint, **** i don't care i'm banned anyway, it was Casino New Brunswick in Moncton. Anyway they were having a poker tournament and I was there playing blackjack under the cover of the tourney. Nice hotel. Anyway, I was losing that weekend, and this blackjack high roller had them open up a 50-1000 table that normally they just did 25-500 (it's kind of smaller province in atlantic canada). anyway, the degen that opened the table started winning on his csm game and i hopped on to his table. a couple hours later i was up 15k, even for the trip and then some. the dealer just kept looking in astonishment at the pitt. it was a great run. and that's the thing about blackjack. You run good and bad just like poker. It is a high variance ride that requires nerves of steel; but it will teach you a lot about gambling and yourself. And there are a TON of gambling opportunities out there that require basic blackjack literacy.

Hey man, created an account just to thank you for taking the time to write this bad boy up. Thread should be stickied, sums up all the important stuff to winning large sums of cash at this game save for the occasions where the shoe kicks your butt, really well. Occams razor for the win.

About to have lunch with this and read.

So far very good.

Now let's talk about the small insignificant issue tending to erase the card counting effect: deck penetration.

deck penetration is critical. it is the first thing i look for when evaluating a game. the deeper the cut the better, so that you have the chance of running across some really fluke situations where the TC is in the double digits.

Exactly.

And unfortunately very few casinos cut the deck with a deep penetration. In the worse cases automatic shuffle machines are more and more used where any card counting is worthless.

yes those continuous shuffle machines are the worst!

I wonder why casinos were so worried about card counters knowing that a light penetration would destroy almost every player's advantage.

For example it's a long time that in Montecarlo they cut more than half the deck for good measure...

What do you think about?

I mean, is still bj a countable game?

I just want to win $1,000 USD man, is that so much to ask for? Christ.

Light penetration means you spend more time shuffling and less time collecting bets from losing players.

They want it both ways.

There was something else I wanted to ask to whom it may concern:

In about 3 weeks from this friday,ill be back at atlantic city starting with blackjack. This time I'm going to bring $200 to the table to account for the "Top-down" effect (feel free to ask what this is its pro baby), and prey I can get up to $1,000 USD. In the meantime, every day after work, I'm spending an hour or two practicing counting with my dad. I'm only 26 sup bros? I wanna get rich #ezgaymeezlyfe.

Anyway, he mentioned something interesting. He said that if you really want to get serious about it, you should be able to track pretty much every meaningful card there is as they come out. So for example 8 and 9 are important when you have a ****ty 12. How many 8s are in a 6 deck shoe? Twenty four. Let's say by mid shoe with 3 decks used, 20 eights have been drawn. The true count is +4. You have K2 and dealer has a Queen. I would stand here.

Furthermore, superficially this may seem to require some kind of rain man intellect, but actually all you need is at the very least an above average memory. This is no different to me than memorizing lines from a script for a movie or play. We're talking only several hundred things to be memorized here, that isn't very many with enough practice.

And additionally, let me just add, this is a means to an end type deal...i want to go back to school and get a master's in research psychology, buy a drum set and start writing / practicing music again, the last thing i want is to be a professional gambler, but i need the money to pay for the real goals i have in life thanks

Also if one could be so kind, as to explain in more detail and elaborate on this subject of the "composition" of your hand by which ive been interpreting as what exactly are the two cards that make your eleven, your fourteen, etc

You may want to rethink this hashtag.

hi,

i cheated and am going to atlantic city borgata to win 2k in blackjack from 200 thanks. What can i do to win?

Omaha, if you were me, thank god your not cuz im dumb and ugly and poor thnx, how would you transmute 200 into gold 2k? Stakes?

Also how are you supposed to be betting during the counts?

Plz someone help work is almost over and ill be sitting down at a blackjack table soon.

Side counting the 8's and 9's is not hard. I explain how to do this in the video below. With more 8/9's left, the dealer will bust more often and our double downs on 10/11 will improve.

My man...thanks for this resource. About to fire this video up

Oh man high roller bringing $200 to the table.

Did you borrow that from pops?

Nah boss. I make $22 an hour doing a monotonous task. But guess what? I'm happy. $200 is my money I made working my low wage. But, when I walk outside in an hour, I'm going to see people without a home, money, begging for food. When I walking into mickey D's, I'm going to be glad I don't work there. And, then there's the Flash. But then, who are you supposed to be exactly?

One more thing to add, the amount of energy you expended as an effort to make me mad/hate myself, was wasted.

have a nice weekend

I wouldn't try; instead I suggest you invest in some nice rib eye steaks. Cook them for a minute on each side at maximum heat.

Hey man, this is the best advice so far. I don't like playing anymore. I spent 6 hours playing blackjack only to almost lose the 200 and end up winning it back plus another 100. Seems like a big waste of time to me at this point. Also, gambling is maladaptive behavior since the agent intentionally seeks out risky situations that can be harmful. Best of luck to all.

Yes, individuals drawn to gambling often have a self destructive streak.

hey man, i don't mean to sabotage your thread, you've divulged really useful info to give anybody that goes to play for fun a better chance at winning. But I just wanted to add, I asked about a dozen people at the casino what they thought about blackjack, and all of them said its next to impossible to win consistently at. But there's always the one in a million that makes something work out, and that's you, so I go tthe wrong idea, the fact is it's a maladaptive behavior that probably causes most people to suffer

for hours i was immersed in neutral and negative counts, the highest positive count i got to was a +3 and more high cards would come out the next hand negating them, very frustrating and annoying, i just don't want to play anymore im only 26 i'll be dead by the time im 30 from all the stress and risk taking behavior

The probability to get portions of shoe giving the player a decent positive count is around 5%.

Not so appealing....

nice!..
thanks for the link OP