I am currently experiencing the best variance of my life playing blackjack online.

In the last 2 weeks, I have wagered 700k, betting 50-100 per hand. Assuming an average bet of $70, I am up about 250 units in ~10000 hands. House edge is about 0.70% based on perfect play.

Can someone calculate the standard deviation of this? I know this is certainly not sustainable but I just want to figure out just how lucky I have been these past 14 days.

Thanks

Since the bets don't all pay off 1:1, you need the average win/loss in $, not the average wager. And even then we would be estimating, without the full actual history of bets and results.

Above when you say 250 units, is that min bets, or is that based on your $70 average? How much are you up in $?

He is up 250 x 70. 17500. lucky bastard.

Yes, I am actually up about $20k.

However, 250 units is probably not very accurate now I think about it. When I lose, I tend to press bigger bets. I remember I lost like 20 $50 hands in a row and just started betting 200 a hand and ended up winning $3k. Most of the $100 bets I made were when I was down and I ended up winning most of them. So in essence, I won more $100 bets than I lost $50 bets. Consequently, while I am winning in overall units, the number is actually smaller than 250 I believe. I am pretty positive I am still up over 100 units but just for the sake of things, what is the probability that I am up 250 units in a game with %.7 negative EV over 10000 hands?

Assuming flat or near flat betting, essentially zero. But we know that wasn't how it went down.

Much more information is needed to calculate the z-score of your result.

You are right in that I am not up 250 units. However, only twice did I up my bet to 200/hand and that was only for dozens of hands. I flatted 50-100 rest of the time so I am sure I am positive in units against them regardless.

If we simplify this and just assume that with an expectancy of %0.7, what are the chances of breaking even in units after 10000 hands? Thanks

lol the run good ends, just lost back about 4k (3.5k then another 500 deposit)

but the good thing is that i withdrew 9k (plus 8.5k earlier) leaving me with a profit of 12k (i lost 5.5k playing poker and i deposited 5k)

so I really made about 17.5k playing blackjack on ignition....

for awhile i thought their system was glitched or something because i really am up over 200 units on them at one point (i probably still am)

the truth is more in line with my first post rather than my subsequent posts. i simply regretted posting about this...in case their blackjack game malfunctioned and i was making a killing on it.....don't really want to kill the game if everyone started jumping on it...

because i too can't believe that it is possible to win 200 units in that many hands....i don't know the exact maths but it seemed so highly implausible that i genuinely thought the game was broken....hence why i wanted to know the standard deviation in the first place.....if it is something like 8 or 9 SD...then that is like 1 in 700 million....odds that almost can't exist.....

but i guess after losing back 4k to them, it doesn't really matter anymore...even if the game is truly broken, i am fine with it. i will take my 12k and walk away a happy guy

If you had flat bet:

SD is 1.15 units/hand, so over 10k hands your SD is sqrt(10k)*1.15 or 115 units. EV is -0.007 units/hand so over 10k hands EV is -70 units. Your actual result of +250 units has a z-score of (+250-(-70))/115, or +2.8ish. That would be extremely lucky, like top 1% lucky.

Varying your bet sizes complicates things.