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Calculating Blackjack EV for misplays

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02-23-2017 , 09:30 AM

alwayscall

enthusiast

Join Date: Jan 2017 Posts: 71

I made a mistake and stood on 12 versus an A (I thought I had 18), and I was wondering how much mistakes like that are costing me. And is there a quick way to calculate these things?

Thanks a lot!

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02-25-2017 , 08:09 PM

gobbo

Trust the fat man.

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 15,623

Look up % of the time you win the hand by hitting 12 against an ace and look up how much an ace busts, take the difference in % and multiply by bet size.

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02-26-2017 , 01:41 PM

browni3141

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 5,678

This is for infinite decks, so not exactly correct, but it should be close to whatever game you play: https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/1/

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02-27-2017 , 02:02 AM

MrLengthy

stranger

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 5

Quote:

Originally Posted by alwayscall

I made a mistake and stood on 12 versus an A (I thought I had 18), and I was wondering how much mistakes like that are costing me. And is there a quick way to calculate these things?

Thanks a lot!

Bear in mind also that the dealers should be making mistakes. Finding an absent-minded/incompetent dealer goes a long way in advantage play. So if you aren't incorporating that into your EV calcs, you should be.

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03-01-2017 , 08:27 AM

alwayscall

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Join Date: Jan 2017 Posts: 71

Quote:

Originally Posted by gobbo

Look up % of the time you win the hand by hitting 12 against an ace and look up how much an ace busts, take the difference in % and multiply by bet size.

Where do I look that up? thanks!

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03-01-2017 , 08:28 AM

alwayscall

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Join Date: Jan 2017 Posts: 71

Quote:

Originally Posted by browni3141

This is for infinite decks, so not exactly correct, but it should be close to whatever game you play: https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/1/

Awesome, thanks!!

If I'm reading this correctly I had -35% for standing and -66% for hitting, so I lost 31% of my bet with this mistake, that's huge!

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03-01-2017 , 08:30 AM

alwayscall

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Join Date: Jan 2017 Posts: 71

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrLengthy

That's an interesting point! I'll keep it in mind.

Although I've seen times where the pit boss comes and corrects a mistake by the dealer and takes away money that they've already paid mistakenly in a previous hand, and the player is left very confused. I've even seen them take one player to the security room to show him the tape of when they paid him in error.

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03-01-2017 , 02:33 PM

browni3141

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 5,678

Quote:

Originally Posted by alwayscall

Awesome, thanks!!

If I'm reading this correctly I had -35% for standing and -66% for hitting, so I lost 31% of my bet with this mistake, that's huge!

Yeah, dealer makes a hand a very high % of the time starting with an A, even after checking for blackjack. So often that 17 vs. A is a BS surrender in H17, and 17 vs. A becomes a hit in some low counts.

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03-01-2017 , 03:29 PM

alwayscall

enthusiast

Join Date: Jan 2017 Posts: 71

Yeah I was thinking that standing on 12 vs an A was probably one of the worst mistakes because 12 is the lowest hand you can reasonably stand on and A is almost never a bust.

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