It makes no difference how you bet your money. If each bet is -EV, then all of your bets together will be -EV. Your total EV is the sum of the EVs for each bet. You can't expect to add negative numbers and get a positive number. Each bet has a house edge of 0.86%, so long term you lose 0.86% of all money bet. If you want the greatest chance of doubling your bankroll, then bet it all on your first bet. You'll still have the same -EV, but no betting system has a higher probability of doubling.

How can it be -ev when you are exected to win?

If your chanced losing lets say 5 in a row are very small how is that a negative expected growth on your bankroll?

So obviously then the best way to do it would be to do it only one time, win one unit and be out.

Do you see where Im coming from tho? Its like something in the back of my mind says ok that was easy, odds are you can do it again.

After all they are supposedly random in independent events.

Because you have a big chance of winning a small amount, and a small chance of losing a large amount. If you average those, you lose 0.86% of what you bet. If you play long enough, your total loss will be 0.86% of all the money that you ever bet.


You can't do it again and again. Sooner or later you will hit a losing streak. When you do, it will (on average) wipe out all of your winnings up to that point plus 0.86% for the house edge.

If you want to win 50 cents with very high probability and never play again, that can be easily done. But if you try to double any size bankroll by increasing your bets, that can never be done with probability greater than 50%.


The EV factors in all outcomes, lucky and unlucky, and it weights them by their probabilities. The EV for each play is

.56*bet*0.77 - 0.44*bet.

That's about -0.0088 bets which is your average loss per game (-0.0086 if we are more precise). To get the EV for any number of games, simply add the EVs for each game. That is equivalent to taking into account every possible string of wins and losses and weighting each by their probabilities. It's a negative number, and it gets more negative the longer you play. That's why you can never double your bankroll with greater than a 50% probability because if you could, this EV would be positive.


Not if the payoff isn't high enough. You need a payoff of more than 1.7857 times your bet to win money on average. 1.77 won't cut it. I could offer you a game where you win 99% of the time, and if I pay off less than $1 for every $100 you bet, you can't win more than you lose on average, and long term you will lose money.

oh, oh
edit time
SallyO

sup hezbollah might be starting to understand it is a losing game.

Let's take an extreme case: you win 51% of the time, but you only get paid 1.01 your bet.
You are getting heavily crushed.
Your case is just less extreme.

BTW your strategy to double your bet each time means you are very likely to make short term small winnings (what happened) but you are SURE to lose on the long term because you will encounter a losing streak (what is happening).

Your strategy only works if you have an infinite bankroll and can bet as much as you want. This way, you could indeed double your bet each time and be profitable as there is no such thing as an "infinite losing streak". Unfortunately there is no such thing as an infinite bankroll either.

OP - you are still confusing games won with dollars won. You will win more games than you lose, obviously. But the payouts for winning will be less than the losses for losing, and overall the system is a net loss. Guaranteed.

You can create a betting system to win more sessions than you lose even on games like Roulette where you win a red/black bet less than 50% of the time. But you can't create a system that changes the amount of money you are expected to lose over time. That is controlled by the rules of the game, not by how you bet.

SYNOPSIS:

From this:
To this:

And from this:
To this:

Something tells me that Im gonna have a hard time staying away from this game and in the end it may not end well.

They may end up taking off their belt while I look on in absolute horror.

I have considered switching the numbers up every time, anyone think that would be better?
Yes, I understand theoretically it shouldnt matter but lets be realistic.... its all about the numbers that come up. Also for some reason I have noticed that when the numbers 1 and 80 come up early, they seem much likelier to come up again the next time for some reason.

This may be a pattern we could use to our advantage.

Also I just went on live chat to request my full game history, I am going to tally how many times each number came up and I will post them here.

I believe its possible this game may be worthy of further analysis.

You have got to be trolling now. Perhaps all along.

Im not trolling I am just irrational.

I just wanted to throw in the fact that I wholeheartedly think that every person that has posted on this thread is f'ing awesome in my book.

Your finding this bet is cool.
It has less than .9% house edge.
It really does not get better than that for any type of no brain betting.
Except for the 0% house edge bets at Craps.

First, no Marty.
Your 10 step idea does not fly when winning .77 per 1.0 bet.
You would need over a $1500 bankroll to make sure your win at any step was about .38 from a 0.50 bet. Ugly.
the double-up only works with even money payouts.

With such a low house edge game, do not be surprised that luck is positive and you do find yourself winning over what you may think are many bets.
It is the hook that will get you.
The more bets you do make, the less chance you have of winning making bets against any house edge.

You may still be one that makes more bets than someone else, say
BruceZ for example (I am sure he gambles)
and shows a profit while that other person (he) has sustained a loss more than what just EV tells.
(Bruce knows about standard deviation for any session play BTW)

Good Luck to you and enjoy playing
Sally

This thread is ****in' great. OP, I want to address two of your questions to hopefully give you more insight into this problem.

This is what other posters have been doing when they're posting EV calculations for this bet. In a rational approach to gambling games, there is no such thing as luck. There is only EV (as a shorthand for calculations of winning probability versus payouts) and variance.

Variance is probably closer to what you'd call "luck." Anything within the realm of the game's outcomes could happen on this particular trial, and that's also true of the next trial, and the next, and so on. This can lead to some stretches of bad and some stretches of good outcomes. Call it luck if you like.

But variance always tends toward the average over time. The more trials, the more the average outcomes will start to look like the percentages you put up at the beginning (~56 2/3% wins and ~43 1/3% losses), same as fair coin flips tending toward 50% heads and 50% tails. What matters in the EV calculations is what the loss and win amounts are when measured against these theoretical probabilities (which your average results will eventually come to resemble).

If you're losing $1 on heads and winning $1 on tails, you're in a break-even game. But if you're losing $1 on heads and winning only $0.90 on tails, you're losing $0.05 per flip. Even if you're using, say, a coin that has been manipulated to produce tails at a greater rate—say, 56 2/3%—the payouts have to also line up in your favor. Just being a 1.3:1 favorite on any individual flip doesn't matter if you're not winning enough money when you flip tails to make up for what you lose when you flip heads. Hell, you can even have a coin that flips tails 90% of the time, and the "game" can be a money loser if the payouts don't line up in your favor.

I won't rehash the math that's already been done here, but this game is –EV because it's not paying you enough on your wins relative to what you lose on your losses. It doesn't need to be rigged for you to lose.

Bottom line, Martingale systems are for suckers. If a bet is –EV, and the probabilities and payout odds don't change with the amount bet, then it's –EV for all bet amounts. The cumulative total that you have bet, measured against the EV, is what matters in the long term. It doesn't matter if you bet a certain amount all at once, in tiny amounts at a time, or in progressively increasing or decreasing amounts. All that these methods do is toy around with the variance; the more you bet at a time, the higher the variance (because there will be fewer trials through which to approach the average).

The results of my last 30 games, in case anyone is curious.


Time Description Bet Result
23:00:48
Picks: 9,69 0 of 2 pays 1.77:1
Balls: 74,76,18,66,52,2,55,51,75,46,22,43,33,60,80,34,49, 70,54,61
10.00 7.70
22:47:41
Picks: 49,69 0 of 2 pays 1.77:1
Balls: 23,71,57,28,13,14,59,76,50,56,45,10,8,63,17,60,51, 24,48,19
10.00 7.70
22:45:41
Picks: 15,53 0 of 2 pays 1.77:1
Balls: 32,28,8,26,24,13,9,51,41,52,61,71,11,48,75,30,22,5 0,1,45
40.00 30.80
22:45:26
Picks: 16,45
Balls: 45,36,17,57,1,12,8,40,49,20,54,37,73,61,60,65,79,5 ,26,9
20.00 -20.00
22:45:12
Picks: 18,68
Balls: 14,10,29,53,66,65,27,6,22,77,68,51,50,2,70,43,7,25 ,59,17
10.00 -10.00
17:43:36
Picks: 18,33 0 of 2 pays 1.77:1
Balls: 42,75,74,22,50,1,39,73,53,26,49,23,28,2,37,71,52,2 4,15,20
50.00 38.50
17:43:00
Picks: 19,54 0 of 2 pays 1.77:1
Balls: 78,67,52,34,50,71,59,66,53,76,24,58,68,5,62,79,41, 60,9,15
40.00 30.80
17:42:42
Picks: 12,51
Balls: 75,5,47,31,61,25,18,45,51,34,80,48,60,15,71,39,73, 69,53,68
20.00 -20.00
17:42:27
Picks: 9,23
Balls: 66,25,16,52,29,4,44,77,38,12,58,63,17,1,28,69,24,2 3,14,76
10.00 -10.00
17:41:33
Picks: 27,62 0 of 2 pays 1.77:1
Balls: 66,76,16,59,3,8,48,46,73,35,32,33,25,34,18,58,52,1 9,37,22
100.00 77.00
17:41:16
Picks: 34,76 0 of 2 pays 1.77:1
Balls: 24,2,40,42,31,45,50,9,37,1,43,10,54,60,8,73,63,16, 74,79
100.00 77.00
17:41:01
Picks: 1,80
Balls: 50,53,25,35,12,80,60,5,49,19,77,75,36,68,48,30,64, 45,29,44
100.00 -100.00
17:40:45
Picks: 16,78
Balls: 12,22,2,53,38,33,21,66,36,23,46,78,52,29,19,61,24, 11,9,73
50.00 -50.00
17:38:29
Picks: 21,42 0 of 2 pays 1.77:1
Balls: 45,70,59,12,55,53,7,37,78,58,20,9,80,32,48,30,33,4 3,2,4
100.00 77.00
17:38:09
Picks: 15,53 0 of 2 pays 1.77:1
Balls: 5,11,18,2,13,69,72,28,6,77,42,41,12,64,14,76,29,58 ,48,78
100.00 77.00
17:37:50
Picks: 1,80 0 of 2 pays 1.77:1
Balls: 14,45,10,38,23,22,16,42,63,53,50,33,77,2,69,25,39, 79,70,76
100.00 77.00
17:37:31
Picks: 18,54 0 of 2 pays 1.77:1
Balls: 51,8,75,57,29,32,66,4,68,26,71,23,30,22,50,40,48,3 6,63,35
50.00 38.50
17:37:15
Picks: 27,55
Balls: 66,51,42,15,71,45,25,73,78,79,22,33,74,56,46,53,5, 58,55,75
100.00 -100.00
17:36:58
Picks: 1,80 0 of 2 pays 1.77:1
Balls: 16,23,3,68,4,18,5,24,42,71,63,56,70,28,62,61,37,65 ,77,69
100.00 77.00
17:36:48
Picks: 1,80
Balls: 22,29,33,47,1,48,19,49,34,24,21,5,72,4,26,61,36,55 ,9,41
100.00 -100.00
17:36:38
Picks: 1,80
Balls: 48,34,30,58,28,1,43,40,8,45,35,3,66,47,73,62,42,20 ,71,26
100.00 -100.00
17:36:20
Picks: 36,71
Balls: 8,19,68,29,40,76,6,46,63,56,73,66,4,52,10,80,53,69 ,71,5
40.00 -40.00
17:36:05
Picks: 17,22
Balls: 52,27,17,48,38,80,28,7,16,10,21,5,18,29,76,42,22,5 6,58,63
20.00 -20.00
17:35:50
Picks: 1,80
Balls: 37,22,38,27,79,12,66,35,1,76,48,3,10,56,72,46,13,7 4,18,15
10.00 -10.00
17:35:01
Picks: 1,80 0 of 2 pays 1.77:1
Balls: 8,68,17,36,24,70,5,64,4,44,66,28,43,67,33,57,35,15 ,59,9
10.00 7.70
11:47:18
Picks: 15,24 0 of 2 pays 1.77:1
Balls: 74,64,40,6,11,68,37,78,29,72,63,42,80,33,34,71,27, 4,23,48
5.00 3.85
11:46:59
Picks: 51,60 0 of 2 pays 1.77:1
Balls: 8,41,31,65,68,58,46,72,14,20,55,9,54,47,76,50,28,7 5,36,13
10.00 7.70
11:45:53
Picks: 10,43 0 of 2 pays 1.77:1
Balls: 54,79,51,39,29,12,41,44,52,65,2,48,31,33,24,37,4,3 5,21,14
20.00 15.40
11:45:34
Picks: 4,77 0 of 2 pays 1.77:1
Balls: 75,46,21,65,45,31,29,55,42,39,64,1,70,44,2,53,74,5 1,66,80
50.00 38.50
11:45:16
Picks: 12,69
Balls: 44,74,59,68,34,70,13,69,48,77,79,54,17,78,80,1,21, 30,47,45
25.00 -25.00

This did not end well. I just lost 540$ in there in about 3 minutes.


Time Description Bet Result
01:25:06
Picks: 22,62
Balls: 32,26,39,4,59,21,15,22,23,54,60,38,67,44,53,58,61, 56,78,10
.50 -.50
01:24:50
Picks: 29,56
Balls: 19,67,10,18,78,62,34,65,2,41,11,31,56,60,61,50,35, 49,12,55
5.00 -5.00
01:23:42
Picks: 51,74
Balls: 1,26,10,64,43,30,54,35,37,9,25,74,72,67,36,18,21,3 3,11,3
30.00 -30.00
01:23:20
Picks: 1,80 0 of 2 pays 1.77:1
Balls: 59,76,26,38,8,5,41,2,46,15,43,7,35,62,72,67,64,30, 61,10
20.00 15.40
01:22:53
Picks: 29,71 0 of 2 pays 1.77:1
Balls: 67,51,61,52,4,63,35,42,59,37,74,25,47,73,70,46,14, 57,54,8
10.00 7.70
01:22:40
Picks: 18,72
Balls: 29,28,39,9,51,68,35,79,58,71,72,15,6,73,26,13,24,6 2,63,66
50.00 -50.00
01:22:21
Picks: 17,43 0 of 2 pays 1.77:1
Balls: 32,7,41,51,16,9,40,33,63,27,36,19,69,50,24,38,28,6 2,3,77
30.00 23.10
01:22:03
Picks: 27,67
Balls: 75,38,54,48,41,30,35,57,59,80,64,45,28,29,31,55,60 ,27,3,43
50.00 -50.00
01:21:37
Picks: 30,61
Balls: 60,77,52,55,41,63,68,23,11,61,78,73,44,18,66,36,37 ,76,29,1
100.00 -100.00
01:21:24
Picks: 31,73
Balls: 5,73,70,33,28,78,21,19,63,12,40,34,10,79,22,74,36, 60,45,23
100.00 -100.00
01:21:06
Picks: 1,80 0 of 2 pays 1.77:1
Balls: 56,33,48,76,64,21,55,51,61,69,73,67,68,60,35,58,30 ,74,28,41
100.00 77.00
01:20:34
Picks: 1,80
Balls: 69,34,40,11,47,53,26,49,62,80,45,60,54,75,36,64,63 ,37,44,24
100.00 -100.00
01:20:21
Picks: 42,62
Balls: 11,19,21,68,5,80,26,23,76,52,51,49,62,64,43,34,60, 50,1,77
100.00 -100.00
01:20:06
Picks: 1,80
Balls: 80,47,12,70,7,63,76,18,31,20,57,29,64,41,38,45,50, 35,40,62
100.00 -100.00
01:19:50
Picks: 10,58
Balls: 77,42,17,66,75,62,39,29,18,33,78,58,19,8,38,10,28, 32,64,48
20.00 -20.00
01:19:32
Picks: 24,63
Balls: 10,61,55,18,78,17,54,47,30,65,69,12,7,14,64,63,56, 36,72,51
10.00 -10.00
01:19:07
Picks: 20,58
Balls: 58,78,20,22,60,68,76,54,47,18,52,19,8,80,23,27,34, 77,11,67
5.00 -5.00

If only someone would have warned you.

...


Keep on hammering, we're rooting for you.

Im like 99.9% sure this crap is rigged. Look at what happens almost every time I put 100$.

Such a joke. Coincidence? Yea right.

Scumbags, rigging their casino.

Im sure they have the technical capability to do it and you are going to try to tell me they dont do it and play fair? Please.

They should be taken out and shot for this thievery imo.

they're offering you a game that you can't win - there's no need to rig it.

This has to be someone's gimmick account right?

Why would they do it? It puts them at risk, and there's tons of ****ing idiots who'll convince themselves they can win, even if they're explained and shown how they're betting at a disadvantage. We have a shining example of that right here. They'll make money hand over fist without even trying, because most people can't seem to figure out how to think straight.

True, the game isn't fair. That's the nature of a house game. The payouts are arranged such that your EV on every bet is negative.

That's the "cheating" you're perceiving. The game is rigged, but it's not rigged in the way that you think. It's rigged within the math that forms the basis of the game, just like roulette and craps are rigged. The rigging is right there in your face. The website doesn't need to do anything sneaky, and they're better off not even trying. Just by the way the game is set up, you'll lose your money to the house edge inherent in the game, as surely as the sun rises in the east and sets in the west.

Hahahahahahahahaha.

I think its funny people think that every time you raise your bet and lose thats EV and its a coincidence.

I like this but I'd stick to the same numbers for obvious reasons