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 05-02-2011, 01:04 PM #31 King of the sidebar     Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: Northern Virginia Posts: 15,949 Re: Best strategy for Craps? I like it when people get so pseudo-scientific about their superstitions.
05-02-2011, 02:24 PM   #32
journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 309
Re: Best strategy for Craps?

there is no fallacy that when you roll the dice in craps that the seven has the greatest chance of being rolled

therefore, one needs to try to be at a table when the seven fails to be rolled as compared to the other numbers

there is no hindsight, i either win a lot at craps because the seven is not being rolled significantly more than the other numbers at that time or stop playing because when i decided to play at that particular time & place the seven was being rolled too often

i understand what the gambler's fallacy is & craps is nothing like flipping a coin; when i say "law of averages for a craps table", i mean that on consecutive, infinite dice rolls that the seven will appear more than any other number

Quote:
 Originally Posted by spadebidder Sure, in hindsight only. Which has absolutely nothing to do with your chance to win. Perhaps you don't realize that the so-called "law of averages" as applied to gambling on games of chance is a synonym for the gambler's fallacy.

05-02-2011, 02:36 PM   #33
Actually Shows Proof

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Re: Best strategy for Craps?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by CSFurious there is no fallacy that when you roll the dice in craps that the seven has the greatest chance of being rolled therefore, one needs to try to be at a table when the seven fails to be rolled as compared to the other numbers there is no hindsight, i either win a lot at craps because the seven is not being rolled significantly more than the other numbers at that time or stop playing because when i decided to play at that particular time & place the seven was being rolled too often
lol
That's a pretty good definition of the gambler's fallacy. You can call it law of averages if you like, it's the exact same myth under another name.

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and go ahead and explain it. If you observe a table that hasn't rolled a seven in 50 rolls, the expected proportion of 7s on future rolls is exactly the same as it is when the last 50 rolls were all 7s. There is no "evening out" effect and no change in odds. Period. Ever. Not even if you roll to infinity. There will never be extra 7s expected to make up for the ones that were not rolled.

Quote:
 I understand what the gambler's fallacy is
No, you obviously do not.

Last edited by spadebidder; 05-02-2011 at 02:43 PM.

05-02-2011, 02:53 PM   #34
veteran

Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 2,688
Re: Best strategy for Craps?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by CSFurious therefore, one needs to try to be at a table when the seven fails to be rolled as compared to the other numbers
How does one go about that?

How does one know that a "hot" table will stay that way?

05-02-2011, 05:01 PM   #35
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Phoenix
Posts: 4,677
Re: Best strategy for Craps?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by CSFurious i understand what the gambler's fallacy is & craps is nothing like flipping a coin ...
Craps is exactly like flipping a coin -- a coin that is slightly biased against you.

05-02-2011, 05:03 PM   #36
journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 309
Re: Best strategy for Craps?

no, i understand what you are saying

i do not believe that because the seven has not been rolled 50 times that the seven is "due"; i understand that the dice "have no memory"

however, the seven is the most common number that can be rolled

if not, please explain why the casino does not use the 10 or the 4 instead of the 7; also, why does the casino pay more when a shooter rolls a 10 or 4 versus a 6 or 8

there is a reason that 7 is used

Quote:
 Originally Posted by spadebidder lol That's a pretty good definition of the gambler's fallacy. You can call it law of averages if you like, it's the exact same myth under another name. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and go ahead and explain it. If you observe a table that hasn't rolled a seven in 50 rolls, the expected proportion of 7s on future rolls is exactly the same as it is when the last 50 rolls were all 7s. There is no "evening out" effect and no change in odds. Period. Ever. Not even if you roll to infinity. There will never be extra 7s expected to make up for the ones that were not rolled. No, you obviously do not.

05-02-2011, 05:05 PM   #37
journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 309
Re: Best strategy for Craps?

it is completely luck & that is why you leave

people who overstay at a craps table will eventually lose

you need to get in & then get out

it is also good to be in area like A.C. when you can go to many different casinos relatively easily

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Didace How does one go about that? How does one know that a "hot" table will stay that way?

05-02-2011, 05:08 PM   #38
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Re: Best strategy for Craps?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by CSFurious i do not believe that because the seven has not been rolled 50 times that the seven is "due"; i understand that the dice "have no memory"
This contradicts everything you have posted in the thread up to this point. You spoke of betting based on hot and cold streaks, of watching for tables where a 7 hasn't hit recently, and other variations of this. You also described a mythical law of averages that you believe applies to random events like dice rolls.

Your beliefs are exactly the reason the casino puts up a big sign showing the recent results.

05-02-2011, 05:08 PM   #39
journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 309
Re: Best strategy for Craps?

no, there are only 2 sides to a coin

i think your point is close but with your example i believe that both the house and players would break even

the seven is what creates the negative expectation

Quote:
 Originally Posted by SheetWise Craps is exactly like flipping a coin -- a coin that is slightly biased against you.

 05-02-2011, 06:06 PM #40 King of the sidebar     Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: Northern Virginia Posts: 15,949 Re: Best strategy for Craps? No, it's too small payoffs that create the negative expectation.
05-02-2011, 06:09 PM   #41
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Phoenix
Posts: 4,677
Re: Best strategy for Craps?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by CSFurious it is completely luck & that is why you leave people who overstay at a craps table will eventually lose you need to get in & then get out it is also good to be in area like A.C. when you can go to many different casinos relatively easily
So ... you believe that selecting multiple play sessions at different times or in different clubs, where you "get in & then get out" is different than just staying at one game for the same amount of cumulative time?

I'm pretty sure that's what you're stating.

05-02-2011, 06:15 PM   #42
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Phoenix
Posts: 4,677
Re: Best strategy for Craps?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by CSFurious the seven is what creates the negative expectation
It doesn't have to be the seven, it might be the 12. If the 12 didn't lose on the come-out roll, the game would be a winner for the front line player. So let's say the 12 creates the negative expectation -- it makes about as much sense.

This game is more complex than the thought you've given it.

05-02-2011, 06:18 PM   #43
Pooh-Bah

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Location: Phoenix
Posts: 4,677
Re: Best strategy for Craps?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Neil S No, it's too small payoffs that create the negative expectation.
As in all house games -- but only easily illustrated in roulette

05-02-2011, 07:03 PM   #44
Actually Shows Proof

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Re: Best strategy for Craps?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by SheetWise So ... you believe that selecting multiple play sessions at different times or in different clubs, where you "get in & then get out" is different than just staying at one game for the same amount of cumulative time? I'm pretty sure that's what you're stating.
You gots to move around to find the hot shooter.

05-02-2011, 08:11 PM   #45
King of the sidebar

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Re: Best strategy for Craps?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by spadebidder You gots to move around to find the hot shooter.
I always knew I'd never need that stuff I learned in school, the parts about statistical significance and all that. You can *eyeball* whether a shooter's on fire or not.

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