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Old 01-07-2012, 03:46 AM   #1
leetrum
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beginner craps question

Does the free odds bet have any effect on the house edge? I read that by taking the max odds, the house edge goes down slightly!
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Old 01-07-2012, 06:35 AM   #2
Limpcallcallfold
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Re: beginner craps question

Taking max odds is the best bet on the felt and is a must. Free odds are TRUE odds...like getting even money on a coin flip, or 51 to 1 you could guess the random card I pull out of a poker deck.

Always bet free odds to the max, even if you have to decrease your Line bet
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Old 01-07-2012, 12:15 PM   #3
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Re: beginner craps question

Taking the odds bets doesn't change your expected loss in absolute $. But since your total wagered is now higher with the same expected $ loss, the % is lower. So the answer to your question about reducing house edge needs to be qualified. Your negative EV for the bets already placed doesn't change at all, and the odds bets are just a coin flip, basically just more action.

The poster above implying that it is to your advantage to take maximum odds bets, is wrong, except perhaps for the "fun quotient" factor. It doesn't change your losses at all. It just allows you to put more money in play (risk more) and over time lose exactly the same amount as if you didn't take the odds.

Last edited by NewOldGuy; 01-07-2012 at 12:26 PM.
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Old 01-07-2012, 01:08 PM   #4
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Re: beginner craps question

Suppose you wager $10 on the pass line. I think the expected house edge is 14.1 cents on that bet, or 1.41%. A point is made, so you get to place odds. Supposing the house offers 10X odds, you then place $100 bet on odds, which has a house edge of zero, because it is is "even money". You then have wagered a total of $110 with an expected loss of still 14.1 cents. So it looks like you only have a house edge of 14.1 cents / $110, or 0.12%. Even though all you've really done is added a 0% house edge bet to an existing 1.41% house edge bet.
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Old 01-07-2012, 01:48 PM   #5
Limpcallcallfold
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Re: beginner craps question

Quote:
Originally Posted by NewOldGuy View Post
Taking the odds bets doesn't change your expected loss in absolute $. But since your total wagered is now higher with the same expected $ loss, the % is lower. So the answer to your question about reducing house edge needs to be qualified. Your negative EV for the bets already placed doesn't change at all, and the odds bets are just a coin flip, basically just more action.

The poster above implying that it is to your advantage to take maximum odds bets, is wrong, except perhaps for the "fun quotient" factor. It doesn't change your losses at all. It just allows you to put more money in play (risk more) and over time lose exactly the same amount as if you didn't take the odds.


Disagree with nearly all of this, deepstack below illustrates the point well regarding how important odds are and now much the house edge is decreased.

OP give me an example of how much you normally bet on the line and I will illustrate EVERY possible outcome regardless of point. Will take a few minutes but what you learn will be well worth my time. Not backing up with odds is insane, give me an example or two, I will post all possible outcomes and you reach your own conclusion
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Old 01-07-2012, 01:56 PM   #6
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Re: beginner craps question

Yes, the combined house edge decreases as the amount of your free odds increases. Go to this page... scroll down to "Strategy" section... it lays out the combined house edge for levels of free odds:

http://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/
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Old 01-07-2012, 02:45 PM   #7
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Re: beginner craps question

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Originally Posted by Limpcallcallfold View Post
Disagree with nearly all of this
Ok, but you are wrong, and the rest of your post is making you look foolish. This subject has been explained in this forum a hundred times.

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Originally Posted by Zomboid! View Post
Yes, the combined house edge decreases as the amount of your free odds increases.
Correct, and I explained why the percent decreases while your expected $ loss is exactly the same, and your variance is greatly increased. You are putting more money at risk to get the exact same EV (expected $ loss). The only advantage to playing the odds bets is to enjoy more action, there is zero money advantage.
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Old 01-07-2012, 03:31 PM   #8
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Re: beginner craps question

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Originally Posted by Limpcallcallfold View Post
OP give me an example of how much you normally bet on the line and I will illustrate EVERY possible outcome regardless of point. Will take a few minutes but what you learn will be well worth my time.
I'm more interested in what YOU will learn. If you illustrate EVERY possible outcome -- then add them up, and you will see there is no difference.

Quote:
Not backing up with odds is insane, give me an example or two, I will post all possible outcomes and you reach your own conclusion.
I think you should do that for a $25 wager with 3x, 4x and 5x odds -- it's not necessary, but do your calculations for the 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, and 10. Remember to do EVERY example. You might learn something.
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Old 01-07-2012, 04:20 PM   #9
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Re: beginner craps question

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Originally Posted by leetrum View Post
Does the free odds bet have any effect on the house edge? I read that by taking the max odds, the house edge goes down slightly!


You guys would say NO to these questions?
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Old 01-07-2012, 04:22 PM   #10
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Re: beginner craps question

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Originally Posted by Limpcallcallfold View Post
Taking max odds is the best bet on the felt and is a must. Free odds are TRUE odds...like getting even money on a coin flip, or 51 to 1 you could guess the random card I pull out of a poker deck.

Always bet free odds to the max, even if you have to decrease your Line bet
New old guy,

Maybe you could avoid being rude for a moment and dissect what is so foolish about my post
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Old 01-07-2012, 04:50 PM   #11
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Re: beginner craps question

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New old guy,

Maybe you could avoid being rude for a moment and dissect what is so foolish about my post
Your advice to always bet odds to the max, your statement that it is the best bet in the game, and your repeated implication that this bet is advantageous to the player.

Some players might want to increase their variance and their action by putting more money in play just for excitement, and accepting the increased risk that entails. Some might not. But in no case is there any monetary advantage to any player making these bets. Their EV is unchanged, and they will lose the exact same amount of money over time as they would by not making these bets.

Yes, the combined house edge is reduced, as I immediately explained in my first paragraph posted in this thread when I answered the OP's question. But in this case it's an illusion that this helps the player, unless you count the fun factor, and possibly comps/points.

It's the exact same thing as if you are playing some other -EV game and while playing it you decide to put down 5x more units over here on the side with a guy who wants to flip coins for money, so you do both together to give you more stimulation. It has no effect on your winnings over time, but increases your variance and short term risk a lot.

Last edited by NewOldGuy; 01-07-2012 at 04:59 PM.
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Old 01-07-2012, 06:02 PM   #12
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Re: beginner craps question

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Your advice to always bet odds to the max, your statement that it is the best bet in the game, and your repeated implication that this bet is advantageous to the player .

Will address every point in your post.

1."your statement that it is best bet in the game"

True odds is a bet with zero advantage to the house and zero advantage to the player. Is there a bet in dice that is actually +EV ? If not then my statement that this is the best bet in the game is correct. How is this incorrect?

2. "your repeated implication that this bet is advantageous to the player"

How did I imply this at all?? My exact comment was " it is like getting even money in a coin flip or 51 to 1 that you could guess a random card I pull out of a poker deck." I could not be any clearer that true odds is EV. No edge to either party, both my examples make that clear.

3. Your advice to always bet odds to the max

I Stand by this statement, it is the best bet on the table for the player, always paying more then the line bet and in some cases paying 100% more then the line bet. It gives the house no edge and decreases the percentage of risk your bets are laying dramatically
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Old 01-07-2012, 06:07 PM   #13
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Re: beginner craps question

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Originally Posted by NewOldGuy View Post

Some players might want to increase their variance and their action by putting more money in play just for excitement, and accepting the increased risk that entails. Some might not.


What does this have to do with the OP's question about the house edge on the free odds wager?
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Old 01-07-2012, 06:14 PM   #14
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Re: beginner craps question

I am not a statistician, so feel free to tell me where I am incorrect, but:

Quote:
Originally Posted by NewOldGuy View Post
Your advice to always bet odds to the max,
Optimal craps strategy is indeed to take maximum odds (bankroll considerations aside; we're assuming unlimited bankroll, this is an academic question).

Quote:
your statement that it is the best bet in the game,
It is indeed the best bet on the craps table. It is not a positive EV bet, but it is the best one available.

Quote:
and your repeated implication that this bet is advantageous to the player.
I don't think he implicated it was advantageous; he stated it was neutral - a true odds bet. He implicated that it was MORE advantageous than straight pass line betting. Still not +EV, but better than straight pass line betting.

Quote:
Some players might want to increase their variance and their action by putting more money in play just for excitement, and accepting the increased risk that entails. Some might not. But in no case is there any monetary advantage to any player making these bets. Their EV is unchanged, and they will lose the exact same amount of money over time as they would by not making these bets.

Yes, the combined house edge is reduced, as I immediately explained in my first paragraph posted in this thread when I answered the OP's question. But in this case it's an illusion that this helps the player, unless you count the fun factor, and possibly comps/points.

It's the exact same thing as if you are playing some other -EV game and while playing it you decide to put down 5x more units over here on the side with a guy who wants to flip coins for money, so you do both together to give you more stimulation. It has no effect on your winnings over time, but increases your variance and short term risk a lot.
This is where you lose me. "House edge" and EV are the same concept, just phrased differently. If you are reducing the house edge, you are by definition increasing your EV. Not to positive territory, but you improving it. Your coin-flipping example is flawed. If I went to the side bet guy and got a better payout on my additional 5x units, then yes, I would be increasing my EV.

If you had $1 million to bet at a craps session (or $1 billion or whatever giant number), would you be better off monetarily (not as a %, but actual $) if you made 40,000 $25 pass line bets or 396 (give or take) $25 pass line bets backed by 100x odds (assume you are at the Cannery). -EV in both spots, but the latter will lose you a lot less money. The variance will be MUCH much higher true, but the EV will be higher.
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Old 01-07-2012, 06:17 PM   #15
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Re: beginner craps question

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Originally Posted by Limpcallcallfold View Post
What does this have to do with the OP's question about the house edge on the free odds wager?
It doesn't. It has to do with answering your questions and continuing to explain to you why this bet is not for everyone, is not necessarily best, and has no monetary value. More money at risk per wager, and higher variance are definitely negative considerations for some players.

And contrary to your most recent assertions, you did firmly claim that OP should always take the odds bets "to the max" and that it is "a must". You said they were very important and well worth someone's time to learn. You said not taking these bets was "insane". You did NOT take a neutral position on them as you are trying to backtrack now. It's pretty clear you misunderstood these bets.

It was not good advice for beginners.

Last edited by NewOldGuy; 01-07-2012 at 06:25 PM.
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Old 01-07-2012, 06:41 PM   #16
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Re: beginner craps question

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It doesn't. It has to do with answering your questions and continuing to explain to you why this bet is not for everyone, is not necessarily best, and has no monetary value. More money at risk per wager, and higher variance are definitely negative considerations for some players.

And contrary to your most recent assertions, you did firmly claim that OP should always take the odds bets "to the max" and that it is "a must". You said they were very important and well worth someone's time to learn. You said not taking these bets was "insane". You did NOT take a neutral position on them as you are trying to backtrack now. It's pretty clear you misunderstood these bets.

It was not good advice for beginners.
Actually no.

I am not the one backtracking or repeatedly editing my posts. A person SHOULD take max odds. I did not bother explaining the painfully obvious point that if stakes are too high just lower your line bet accordingly. I was and still am giving the OP enough credit to understand that.

As far as me misunderstanding the bets, what is there to misunderstand ??

The answer to OP's questions are yes yes yes. Whether you want to admit it or not is fine. Your answer to a beginner is the one that is vague and confusing .
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Old 01-07-2012, 07:32 PM   #17
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Re: beginner craps question

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Originally Posted by Limpcallcallfold View Post
Actually no.

I am not the one backtracking or repeatedly editing my posts. A person SHOULD take max odds. I did not bother explaining the painfully obvious point that if stakes are too high just lower your line bet accordingly. I was and still am giving the OP enough credit to understand that.

As far as me misunderstanding the bets, what is there to misunderstand ??

The answer to OP's questions are yes yes yes. Whether you want to admit it or not is fine. Your answer to a beginner is the one that is vague and confusing .
Could you please give me some advice? I found a $5 min craps game that offers 100X odds. Are you saying that I should throw $500 behind my pass line bet since that's max odds? I guess I should, huh? I mean, since you said a person should take max odds?

Or maaaaaybe is a person's aversion to risk a factor in how they choose to gamble?
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Old 01-07-2012, 07:46 PM   #18
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Re: beginner craps question

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This is where you lose me. "House edge" and EV are the same concept, just phrased differently. If you are reducing the house edge, you are by definition increasing your EV.
This is wrong, they aren't the same thing. EV is a $ value. It is computed from the total amount wagered times the edge (which is negative in this case). That number does not change at all when taking odds bets. The first factor gets larger, and the second factor gets smaller, and the product (EV) is exactly the same. Over time you lose exactly the same amount of money taking the odds bets or not taking them.
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Old 01-07-2012, 07:50 PM   #19
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Re: beginner craps question

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Originally Posted by leetrum View Post
Does the free odds bet have any effect on the house edge? I read that by taking the max odds, the house edge goes down slightly!

Double down maybe you should read original question again and not resort to a straw man argument.

OP answer is still yes to your questions. Just so we are clear because it seems some posters felt that I was DEMANDiNG you put ALL your money at risk because it will decrease the Casinos overall against you. I give you enough credit to either decrease your line bet or just bet as much as you are comfortable playing the odds and not more then that.

Oh and in case this needs to be mentioned dont bet your lifesavings on a hard eight.
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Old 01-07-2012, 09:12 PM   #20
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Re: beginner craps question

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Originally Posted by NewOldGuy View Post
This is wrong, they aren't the same thing. EV is a $ value. It is computed from the total amount wagered times the edge (which is negative in this case). That number does not change at all when taking odds bets. The first factor gets larger, and the second factor gets smaller, and the product (EV) is exactly the same. Over time you lose exactly the same amount of money taking the odds bets or not taking them.
Six of one, half-a-dozen of the other. So multiply the house edge by the dollar amount bet... it's still the same thing. You can say the "house edge" of a $100 pass line bet is $1.41. Or that the expected value of a $100 pass line bet is minus-$1.41. Still the same concept.

You keep saying "over time", you lose exactly the same amount. Well, I guess if your definition of "over time" is "I'm going to gamble until I lose all my money" or even "I'm going to gamble until I lose $1000", well then yes, of course you'll lose exactly the same.

But if "over time" means "I am going to wager an aggregate of $1 million in craps bets and then stop", then you will lose less if you are taking pass line-with-full odds than if you are betting straight pass line.

I believe the latter is the proper way to analyze the "long run" when considering questions of house edge, EV, etc.
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Old 01-07-2012, 09:23 PM   #21
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Re: beginner craps question

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But if "over time" means "I am going to wager an aggregate of $1 million in craps bets and then stop", then you will lose less if you are taking pass line-with-full odds than if you are betting straight pass line.
No you won't. That is what you aren't getting. You expect to lose exactly the same amount. That is the common misunderstanding with the odds bets, shared by several posters in this thread. It does not help you to lose less, and does not change your expected loss (EV) at all.

Because of all the misinformation already given in this thread, I'm sure the OP is totally confused now. Deepstacks and SheetWise get it. Read their posts.

Last edited by NewOldGuy; 01-07-2012 at 09:29 PM.
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Old 01-07-2012, 09:42 PM   #22
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Re: beginner craps question

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Originally Posted by Double Down View Post
Could you please give me some advice? I found a $5 min craps game that offers 100X odds. Are you saying that I should throw $500 behind my pass line bet since that's max odds? I guess I should, huh? I mean, since you said a person should take max odds?

Or maaaaaybe is a person's aversion to risk a factor in how they choose to gamble?
You may put $500 down in odds, but should you is another story. You are paid at true odds on the bet depending on the point, but you are also likely to lose that $500, plus the $5 pass bet.

I play craps alot and 5x odds is max where i play. i usually only take 3 times on 6 and 8 double on the 5 and 9 and if table is hot double on 4 and 10
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Old 01-07-2012, 10:25 PM   #23
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Re: beginner craps question

theyre two different bets. quit trying to combine them. one has a HE of 1.41%. one has a HE of 0%. end of discussion.
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Old 01-07-2012, 10:41 PM   #24
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Re: beginner craps question

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Originally Posted by Zomboid! View Post
Six of one, half-a-dozen of the other. So multiply the house edge by the dollar amount bet... it's still the same thing. You can say the "house edge" of a $100 pass line bet is $1.41. Or that the expected value of a $100 pass line bet is minus-$1.41. Still the same concept.
"House edge" and EV are distinctly different -- as EV represents the players expectation in dollars and cents, while "house edge" represents the players expectation as a percentage of money at risk.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zomboid! View Post
But if "over time" means "I am going to wager an aggregate of $1 million in craps bets and then stop", then you will lose less if you are taking pass line-with-full odds than if you are betting straight pass line.
This is true in almost every case, when betting the front side.

Quote:
Originally Posted by NewOldGuy View Post
No you won't. That is what you aren't getting. You expect to lose exactly the same amount. That is the common misunderstanding with the odds bets, shared by several posters in this thread. It does not help you to lose less, and does not change your expected loss (EV) at all.
It does reduce your expected loss for a specified handle -- which is what Zomboid! is saying above.
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Old 01-08-2012, 10:53 AM   #25
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Re: beginner craps question

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Originally Posted by SheetWise;30810498It [I
does[/I] reduce your expected loss for a specified handle -- which is what Zomboid! is saying above.
Well sure, that's the same as saying you lose less if you bet less. In practice the odds bets are going to be on top of your standard unit or the minimum, you don't take from one to put on the other. It's a pretty simple concept that the standard craps bets have an expected loss, and then the odds bets have an expected breakeven, and one doesn't affect the other. Adding a breakeven bet to a losing bet doesn't change the amount of your expected losses, unless as you are implying, you shift some of the losing wagers to the breakeven wagers, but if you are betting minimums you can't. You can save even more by shifting some of the losing bets to back inside your pocket, same thing.

You're being disingenuous explaining it that way, when you in particular know absolutely that your EV doesn't change by taking the odds bets. You also know that house edge and EV are completely different things.
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