I'm a poker player and only got into blackjack recently. I'm looking for online resources for blackjack, preferably a site like this, but focused on blackjack. I understand basic hi-lo strategy and have read Wong's book. My sample size is small, but the swings are larger than I'd expected and my win rate is quite negative.

I'm also questioning "basic strategy" when it comes to 12 vs 2 and 16 vs 10. Wong says to stand on 12 vs 2, but I read another analysis which shows that hitting 12 vs 2 is slightly better.

If there's someone around Tunica that would like to meet me for dinner, I'd love to discuss the game and try to learn from the experience.

http://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/

The more advanced material is in the appendices at the bottom of the page.

Also try:

http://www.bjmath.com/index.html


The 12 vs. 2 and 16 vs. 10 issue is currently being discussed in another thread in this forum.

16v10 is very close and is count dependent for the best play really. Any positive count makes this a stand in terms of EV. 12 vs 2 is less close, hitting is generally +EV because dealer doesn't bust enough with a 2 up. It's only appropriate to stand if the true count is +3 or higher.

EV values at neutral counts:
http://wizardofodds.com/games/blackj...dix/9/6dh17r4/

Yes, this game is fairly swingy, the standard deviation (SD) is about 1.15514 bets per hand (its rule/strategy dependent) , so lets say you grind out a 225 hand (~4 hour) session. Now the total SD is sqrt(225)*1.15514 = 17.3271 bets.

http://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/4/

95% of the time you will fall within 2 SDs of the mean, so this becomes 34.6542 bets. If you're averaging a bet of $27 (i.e. counting at a $10 table), then you'd be swinging $27*34.6542 = $936 in either direction 95% of the time if your counting skills would just beat the house edge. Given Tunica's typical rules for 6 decks, 75% penetration and data found here then you would be able grind a blah edge of +0.267% while using a fairly aggressive 1-8 spread so with a 0.267% edge you would expect to expect to swing between -$920 and +$952 over counting with an average bet of $27, yielding an average profit of $16.25 per session...meh. This +0.267% came from hi-lo counting with H17, DAS rules. If you are allowed to resplit aces (which I think you can there), then add 0.068% to the base return moving the avg. session profit to $20.35.

Here is a list of some basic strategy adjustments based on count. This is probably based on S17, which Tunica typically doesn't have, but it shouldn't effect the strategy changes much I would think.

http://www.gamemasteronline.com/Arch...assics14.shtml

As for more info/forums, look into these:

This forum is now closed, but you can still read posts:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/

Here is Stanford Wong's forum.
http://bj21.com/boards/free/free_board/index.cgi

tring is def the best posters in this forum, hes da man !!!!

I appreciate the feedback. I've been reading and reading and reading.

Blackjack is very swingy. Try to never bet more than 1% of your BR or even much less. Kelly betting. c Fractional Kelly Betting.

Please help me with the Kelly betting system. On a true count of 6, on a game where I start out -.66% (H17, DAS, no surrender), I should have an edge of 2.34%. So, using the formula of 2p-1, I think I get 4.68% of my bankroll as the bet.

Other strategies suggest boosting my bet 10x or 12x once the odds are tilted in my favor enough. Is the issue that my bankroll is simply too small? The specific strategy I saw was on a $5 table, once the TC gets to 6, the "optimum" bet is $60 (rounded). Using the Kelly criterion, I would need $60 to be 4.68% (or less) of my bankroll. Rounding down to 4%, that means I wold need 25x$60 (1500) as my bankroll to make this play, is that correct?

With a bank of 1500 I would set my max bet at $15 and back count aggressively. Essentially I would not come in until TC+2 and then I would bet flat $15 and keep it that way as the count rose. Leave the table if the count drops below TC 1.... wong in place probably (stand behind the table and continue to count). With your roll match plays and the like can be very useful.

I think if you do ROR calcs you will find that $60 bets w/ a $1500 br is kind of risky. On the other hand TC 6 doesn't ever come around anyway, so a more relevant discussion is what you plan on betting TC +2 or +3.



Actually what you should do is flat bet two or three spots of $15 in TC +2. Probably two spots.

In my LIMITED experience, I've had better "luck" when the TC is negative than positive. I've been keeping count, but playing the full shoe. Min bet 10 ($5 if available), $25 at +1, $50 at +2 and above. I've gone up over $100 at +4, and didn't get any heat. But again, I just started playing. I've seen two GOOD shoes, and a lot of shoes that were -2 TC and worse. If I backplayed waiting for a positive shoe, I might spend all day twiddling my thumbs .

How much penetration are they having per shoe?

4 to 4.5 decks of 6.

There is no point in raising your bet at +1 as you are now in a neutral EV spot so betting more is needless variance. BLackjack will teach you a healthy respect for variance.



Look, it's a complete myth that once the count gets high you are going to start winning. That doesn't happen. You never win more often than the dealer. You have to understand, when you put that max bet out there, MORE LIKELY THAN NOT, the dealer is going to take it away from you. Think he's going to bust on that 6? Think again. He is more likely to make a hand than to not. But that's all irrelevant anyway since every decision in blackjack is easily perfectable with a little practice. Basic strategy. Keeping count. Deck estimation. The illustrious 18. Cover. Etc.

In his case, it's still slightly negative. But yeah bet minimum at +1 in this game.

http://www.gamemasteronline.com/Arch...lassics8.shtml

At any rate your hourly is going to be < $2 so keep that in mind!