Hi Bacnerd

I made this account to thank you for the thread and your genuine intentions of discussing the game.

Carl Jung's assistant once asked him for advice on how to deal with a patient who thought she was from Mars. He replied by suggesting talking with her as if she is from Mars. That helped the assistant understand a different method of helping someone.

I find baccarat to be quite an interesting mental game.
And I play it often. I keep track of every hand I play on those sheets of paper they provide then record it at home. I have played/sat through 144 shoes so far. An average of betting only 21 hands per shoe. After playing just over 3000 hands, my success rate sits at 47%. My betting range is between 300-10k, depends on my mood and flow of the session. I usually dedicate 6-8hrs of being there BUT I usually leave (not always) if I win 3 consecutive bets and am up for the session. My bets are very aggressive. If I’m even or up and I bet and win. I double my next bet. if I win again, I let it ride the next time I bet. +7 units if I can win 3 in a row. No exact science in my style of play. It’s all base on how I feel and if the table is winning, which makes for a fun atmosphere.

Its very hard to win 3 consecutive bets so I give myself ample time in my sessions to try to get it.

Sometimes the shoe is "easy" to play because there are nice runs or patterns. Other days, not so much. And no matter when you bet, it’s just wrong.

I've gone on losing 7-10 consecutive bets many times, also won 7 consecutive bets many times too but very rare. After some experience, I've set my stop loss at losing 8 consecutive bets. At that point, I've lost all mental composure and will make horrific speculative large bets that makes it no more fun. I get into a "chasing" mentality and at that point, I admit defeat and need to leave. I’ve lost my battle that day vs my mental state of mind. It’s like wanting to meditate but with so many internal distractions, I should leave and come back to meditate when I’m in a better frame of mind.

When I begin my session, my mentality is I am going into battle me vs me. Not me vs casino. It's a battle of my mental state of mind vs my desire to improve my mental discipline and further understand myself as a person. Gambling brings out so many emotions from within, that I find it interesting. So it's never about beating the casino per se. It's about beating myself and improving my own character. I think it's also important to note that I use gambling as an outlet to relax originally then discovered it was a good tool to use for self improvement in discipline. The money I play with is my recreational money and that is an important factor.

Overall I'm winning. I’m up a good amount relative to playing bankroll. I like to win and have experienced some wild variance swings. You need a very large bankroll and I agree, mental discipline is key.

I have learnt a lot about myself while going through some of the swings. Patience is something that can be a tool and is something that needs to be learnt. Maybe mastered one day. But since I'm human with many flaws, doubtful.

I've also seen many people play and learned of some of their backgrounds and lives.

From my personal experience, I think most people gambling in a casino shouldn't be there. Especially the regulars. I've seen people make bets when their livelihood is at stake with a flip of a coin. If they win, then it just prolongs their battle a little further until they reach that situation again. Eventually, they lose in that situation. Getting a natural 8 and asking for the second player card to be flipped over and seeing a natural 9.

Some players after losing all their money linger and loiter around there. Continuing to analyze hands with the other players. I find it sad.
When I lose my allotted sum for the session, I prefer to get out of there as quick as possible.

I’m starting to sound redundant so will end with a few things.

I’ve been a lurker on this forum for a long time and have contributed posts using other accounts. I prefer my anonymity. I find that the tone and style of many of the posters comes from an adversarial nature. “I’m right, you’re wrong” just childish in nature or just a desire to prove other person is wrong with brute force. There are other forums you can also try that I think would help you with your topic. One in particular that I really enjoy and you can google it, vegas message board. I notice they have a different demographics and their style is less hostile. But since you started a thread here, I do hope you continue the conversation here. And I will participate with some sharing as well. It would be nice to have a conversation about this.

If you are playing baccarat as a hope to win lots of money, I strongly discourage you. If you are trying to gamble and win life changing money. Please stop. It’s a very slippery slope and many lives get ruined. I’ve personally seen a few people whom I knew were very rich and it did not end well.

The psychological aspects of baccarat can be dangerous. Your memory becomes very bias. You will tend to be right half the time. Forgetting that you are wrong half the time. Making you think you can beat the game. If only you control certain aspects of yourself.

The long run is infinite. And your life span of playing will never reach that long run. It’s very possible that you go on a winning streak filled with some minor losses but overall building your bankroll. I’ve seen people personally go up 2million, then proceed to lose all that and a lot more. I’ve also seen people win a lot relative to them and then just quit and spent that money on something they value.

Money management, patience, self control and the list goes on.

I hope you don’t leave this thread. And I would like to learn of your adventure in the game. I’ll cheer for you when you go on an eventual winning streak. And I’ll sympathize when you hit a losing streak. It’ll be wild. If you’re independently wealthy, and the money doesn’t matter. Then lets have fun and talk about and share approaches.

If the money you are playing with matters in any way if you lose, I hope you had some fun while you are playing. If after you have lost a decent amount. I hope you can stop playing and try something else.

Nobody can stop you, gambling can be very dangerous, it can be a very expensive tuition you pay to life and the casinos.

With that aside, lets talk baccarat. It’s a lot of fun for me and here’s some quick things I do and maybe it has helped me be up overall. I don’t know.

I try to only bet one side of a shoe. For me, it’s either a “balanced” show, or a dominant shoe to either banker or player. I view runs separate from previous view. Basically I try to jump on a pattern and flat bet until it changes. Then I wait.

If it is noticeably a dominant shoe, I avoid betting against it and just go with the flow.

Majority of the time, I try to only make banker bets. Because it’s often the last to act. I like the thrill of that aspect. Plus banker is slightly better in odds.

I like to cut the shoes. Because it makes me feel I had an impact on the cards to come. People who I play with think I’m lucky and want me to cut.
I notice that most players don’t want to cut fearing they will be to blame for a “bad” shoe. Or they fear they are unlucky. If they already fear they are unlucky, they have lost the battle and shouldn’t enter the casino. But to each their own.

I weigh my bets base on where I am in the shoe. In early parts of the shoe, I tend to bet smaller. I prefer middle parts of the shoe. I don’t think there is an exact answer for this or that. I just play. In a poker hand, the answer is often, it depends. Same for my style of play in baccarat.

I bet few hands in a shoe and maybe that prolongs the long run eventuality. I’m overall under 50% in my win rate but I’m up overall in money because of betting selection. Basically I just got more right on my bigger bets than my smaller bets.
I rarely leave even. I play till I win or lose. The amounts vary base on current moods.

For me, I write down amount I bet, which side I bet, and the result. Having it in front of me helps me see very clearly how many decisions I got wrong or right. Which helps me in determining if I should end the session.

my paper often looks like...right, wrong , right, wrong...until its either right right right...or wrong wrong wrong... then it's time to re-evaluate and predetermine the point I should leave.

Good luck if you leave this thread.

also, If you have available, maybe play the ez baccarat table with the panda and dragon bets.

The game can pre-occupy you with a few tasks. Learn to count panda and dragons. You can google for the methods. When the count is good, you can at least make some +ev bets. along with your normal playing.

please keep in mind the variance of counting and betting is huge.

Key point of your post that he should take away.

@NineNatural - For actual game play beyond the basics, there's not much I can tell you unless you're sitting right next to me so I can explain what I'm betting and why. It's very easy to misunderstand things when you're trying to do it through texts.

@NewOldGuy - I don't know what your experience in Bac is like, but in this thread it seems you're only here to derail the conversation. You're not a realist showing the light to all these "delusional gamblers" like myself, quite the opposite. I don't refute your points and have sided with you on multiple occasions, which proves I'm already aware of all these factors / perspectives / theories / fallacies / biases.

I'm not stubborn because I'm failing to see it from your point of view or from an outsider point of view. I'm stubborn because I know what caused my past losses and it's certainly not the math nor the negative nature of the game. Literally almost every tip thrown at me in this thread, I've heard and/or have realized it before. I don't mean to sound cocky, but I've progressed passed those levels of thinking. The only thing I'm having hard time with is the emotional side of gambling, which sometimes puts me on tilt. Knowing when to walk away to take a break is the only thing keeping me from playing like a professional.

@bacguy - While I appreciate support from other people here, your post deserves a reply. Obviously, it took some time to post what you posted in a coherent fashion and I appreciate it. Poker has a huge community. In Bac, it can get lonely even when you're sitting at a table filled with interesting and superstitious characters because not many people spend time to analyze the game and track their progress. It's difficult to have a real conversation about the game.

My first thought is, maybe you should join me on Mars? I've been where you're at and I can show you how to get much better results.

An average of 21 hands per shoe is definitely too much. Try going down to 10 hands per shoe, 15 hands at most. You'll start winning more because strict hand selection means you're playing with more patience. Personally, I play about 5 hands per shoe if there's no banker/player run to ride and I typically break even or win 3 to 5 units in those 5 hands.

I've tried the double up approach -- bet 1, win, bet 2, win, bet 4 then stop. I've done that before with $10 and turned it into $160, but it takes a very pretty or predictable table to do so. On paper, this approach makes sense because most of the time you're risking very little of your own and a lot of the house's money. However, what makes sense on paper isn't necessarily what you should be using. I think playing Bac is about limiting loss not winning big because losing is what lead us to play out of control. Sometimes, you work hard for that 7 units only to lose it all. If you have rock solid discipline then continue with this. If not, try up-and-pull just like I'm playing now.

The chasing mode is what causes me to lose big too. Actually, it's the only thing that causes me to lose. I used to play super aggressive too, but that aggressiveness backfired when it stopped working. I think walking slowly to hurt less when you stumble is a better approach. If you run, you'll get there fast, but don't be surprised when running fast lead to falling even faster.

I can't comment on when you should stop at a table because I don't know how many units you're bringing to each table.

When I first started playing, I also liked the me-vs-me realization and the almost meditative nature of the game because most of the time you're just sitting there thinking about certain aspects of your life. It's very similar to reserving one hour per day to have some alone time or have a beer. Although you're not doing much sitting there, it's that one hour that helps you solve a bunch of problems in your mind.

Unlike you though, I don't like wild swings. Nope, too rich for my blood . I don't play for the thrills. I'm just naturally curious and have found in my experience things that question a lot of assumptions people have in Bac. I don't like cutting decks and not even squeezing cards. I just want numbers to come out and determine where opportunities are.

@bacguy and @NewOldGuy -- I agree 100%. This is what shooters experience. They shoot a big hand, win, then continue looking for the same thing because that experience left such an impression on them that they can't let go until they realize the lows of gambling far outweigh the highs.

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6 to 8 hours of play time is definitely too long. Try 2 to 4 hours at most. You have a certain amount of patience and ego available to you throughout the day. You have a lot of it when you first wake up, but it continues to dwindle as the day approaches night time.

I agree with playing only side per table, but if it's a swing table in which the first half is all red and the second half is all blue. You need to adjust accordingly.

I like to sit down and play one table at a time instead of walking around playing multiple tables. If I'm not doing well, I'll sit out for a while for the next opportunity. If it doesn't come, take a break then start a new session at a new table.

Tracking what you're betting can be a good thing... I guess. For me, it messes with my instinct for the game because I'm preoccupied with recording my wins and losses.

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I've gone through all the highs and lows. And really, I think the mentality you bring to the table doesn't matter. You can play confidently and still lose. You can be on tilt, but still win. What matters most are table selection, series selection, then hand selection. It's a funnel.

Table Selection --> Series selection --> Hand selection

If you don't get to complete the funnel for any reason, go back to the last step and wait for the next opportunity to complete it.

If you spend time selecting a one sided table to play, your chance of winning goes up. If you wait for repeating series to repeat again at the one sided table, your chance of winning goes up even higher. The only thing left to do is determine the safest bet to make at that table and make the bet.

@bacguy - I've counted cards for dragon bets before and did it successfully on multiple occasions without risking much money. However, it takes too long.

If you had a winning strat there would be no such thing as 'too long'.

Since Bacnerd is not very receptive, I'll make this my last post here.

Yes, there are side bets in baccarat that are susceptible to advantage play, and as stated already they take a long time to come up and use. Next, using perfect card counting for long periods you can actually gain an advantage in the game.

That said, Bacnerd you have not indicated that you use either of these methods. Instead you talk about patterns, and intuition, and experience, and betting systems. All of which is nonsense in Baccarat, because it is not a skill game. It is a game of coin flips, pure and simple. There is nothing you can do other than precise card counting for long periods of time, with favorable shoe penetration to boot, that can beat this game. Otherwise it is exactly the same as flipping quarters for money, except you actually pay to play in a casino because they pay you less than fair odds when you win.

Others have tried to point this out to you, but you insist on trying to rationalize betting patterns and other nonsense that has no effect on your results. Don't take my word for it. Do some investigation outside this thread, and not just from sources that want to sell you the winning secrets. It is well known and accepted that this is a game of pure luck, albeit a fancy one.

Good luck at the tables.

Agree. Push your luck when you have it. 2 to 4 hours is just a general rule of thumb for playing Bac.

Playing offline with 8-deck shoes (roughly 75 hands per shoe), it takes about an hour to hour and a half to end a shoe. You're guaranteed to see at least 4 shoes from beginning to end within 6 to 8 hours assuming you don't walk around hopping from table to table. If you do that, who knows how many shoes you're playing or exposing your bankroll to. (One bankroll? Play one table at a time.)

6 to 8 hours is too long for a hot streak to last in Bac. If it does, it's an exception, not the norm. It's not like poker in which you can have someone on tilt and keep extracting money from him.

6 to 8 hours per day of Bac is when you haven't played for a week or your'e on vacation at a casino. It definitely shouldn't be a daily schedule.

The thought of gambling full time is sexy and ego boosting, but why be there 8 hours per day when 2 hours will do?

I see both sides of the equation. You don't, therefore, I can't take you seriously.

When I talked about betting systems, it's meant for locking in some win money to keep going. It's not for making more accurate bets. As for the examples I showed on what to bet, those are the most basic patterns you can look for that are at least reasonable. I was not suggesting a formula.

There is only one side. Unless you're declaring war on math. You aren't, are you?

It's not war on math. I've read books on this game. I've gone through the WizardofOdds site. Those things don't make me an expert, but it makes me NOT delusional.

I'm simply saying there are factors math people are not considering. Based on my experience those factors do increase your chance of winning.

Let's establish common grounds here. It's a negative expectation game and banker has a slight edge. That, we can all agree on.

But like I mentioned before, anyone with at least one day of experience will realize Banker is not always the right bet, which proves winning at Bac is not about the long term math and makes the negative expectation of the game also avoidable.

Your betting systems only change the distributions of wins and losses, not the expectation. You likely use a betting pattern that makes you most likely to book a small win in any given session, while posting occasional big losses. This is consistent with your description of losing due to "chasing your losses." Most of the time you get a little bit ahead and lock in profits, but once in a while you have a session where you get behind right at the start and never recover, resulting in a big loss.

As for deciding what to bet on, you could use a formula, bet on instinct, or bet completely at random and it wouldn't make any difference whatsoever. It's no different than a slot machine, you place your bet and the result is determined by math. (The exception is if you have some kind of system based on tracking the cards remaining in the deck or obtaining information about the next card to come off the deck and using that information to identify +EV wagers.)

If I purposely pick only Player dominant tables to play for the rest of my life then my long term experience and history will be completely different from yours. In that extreme case, Banker would not have the slight edge. This is how the power of choice affects your chance of winning and works around the math. It's not black and white like you assume it is.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4f7KiiB6dM

Since I don't have a long experience playing baccarat, because I generally stay away from games that have negative expectation, I don't know what a Player dominant table is.

It seems like it could be one of two things:1) a table where most of the gamblers are betting on the player; or 2) a table where the player hand has won more often than the banker.

If it is #1, then you are somehow suggesting that this somehow has an effect on the cards as they come out, and makes something more or less likely to happen in the future.

If it is #2, then you are somehow suggesting that this somehow has an effect on the cards as they come out, and makes something more or less likely to happen in the future.

I'm not going to say that they don't have an effect on the future. I certainly can't imagine that they do, but I won't discount the possibility. But if they do, then somewhere someone has evidence of it, and I'd love to see it. But until then, I'd go with all of the analysis that has been done, and believe that there is no realistic edge based on which hands won in the past.

You say that you've gone through the Wizard of Odds site. I think it is pretty safe to say that he is about as well respected as they get. This is what he says about keeping track of trends:

"Every baccarat table will have plenty of score cards and pencils for the players to keep track of the outcome of every hand. Most players will do so religiously and carefully analyze their card for trends as the winning hand switches back and forth from the banker to the player. This is a big waste of time! The smart player will bet on the banker every time and leave the score cards alone."

Everything that you have posted suggests that you do not believe this. I really hope that you are right, and that you will win millions and show us all the way.

Is this whole thread a joke?

Thanks for the reply BacNerd.

I just re-read the thread. It seems like you stopped posting about your sessions, results and feelings on the sessions.

Can you continue posting about your sessions. Reading trip reports are fun and I get to enjoy railing you as we go on this adventure. And I’m sure there will be inherent lessons we can all learn from those trip reports and perhaps offer insights after the fact.

If I may, I think you are spending too much energy in what appears to be a defending position. I rather you not defend yourself. It’ll be never ending. you have a desire to become pro, its your money, do as you wish.

Lets try to progress this thread with your journey in perhaps becoming pro at bac. Or at least an attempt to do so. I’m hoping you succeed because then we will all have a blueprint to work on. If you don’t succeed, then thank you for taking one for the team.

As a person who has played bac for couple years now and yourself playing over a year, I’m sure you can easily distinguish a question from a poster that actually has played this game compared to a person who has never played but rather using their knowledge base in theory to question you. No need to answer a critic who hasn’t watched the movie yet. The results will speak for themselves.

I didn’t realize you play bac online until now. That’s a whole different option and I have lots of questions about, in time I hope to ask as this thread progresses.

I played a session last night and had some observations, hoping to get some of your insights.

I saw yet another sad event in my opinion. There was this lady who is a regular. Just last month she was betting $50 a bet on average. Every time she made a bet, it appeared to be with hesitation and patience. Almost like playing with “scared money”. She took a long time before making a bet. Very friendly lady. I also noticed she always ask other regulars if they are winning.

I’m very into the psychological aspects of what gambling and this game does to people.

As I changed tables to her table and sat next to her. She asked me if I was winning. At the time, I was losing. She said she had been playing all night and implied losing. She appeared stressed and as a regular player it’s very easy to observe who is stressed and who is not when betting in bac. I also noticed she had 1000 in front of her and bet 200. Which is way out of norm for her from previous history. She lost. Then the next bet was 300 and she won. Next bet was 500 and lost. Then final bet allin and lost. She wished everyone good luck and went home.

I was hoping to use her as an example of case study for the psychological aspects of the game. Since we are trying to focus on that as your original intentions of this thread.

After playing for a while, one becomes desensitized to the amount we start betting at. And it seems if we win, then it’s only natural we up our base betting amounts and then attain a new level of desensitization. Which could be argued how people get stuck into gambling.

Over the years, I’ve seen many people lose overall while I managed to stay winning. I don’t think I’m smarter than them so am I doing something subtly different or am I just lucky. I’m allowed to win within the statistics distribution.

For her, I just think it’s a sad repeat of a downward spiral of yet another player. I think she always ask if others are winning to have a comparison with her own results. If others are losing as well, then she’s within the average of the day. If everyone else is winning and she is losing, then she has to adjust her strategy.

She went from playing a “safe” base betting of $50 a month ago, to now betting much bigger. She appears stressed with every bet. She tells me she has been losing.

I think she is chasing her losses by upping her average bets. It would be different if she was betting with winnings. It’s very easy to see.

A person who is stressed will hold their breath and not even know it. Sometimes swallow. Eyes stared as each card is flipped. Waiting with anticipation as a player slowly peaks at their cards.

Then react with a sigh of relief if they win and start breathing again. Or the sigh and shaking your head in disbelief of the loss which was unexpected.

I fear she will keep playing and upping her bets as they become more desensitized to her level of risk and eventually losing a life changing amount of money.

Or I hope she gets on a win streak and recovers her overall losses. But by that time, she will have immense confidence and will just keep playing thus prolonging her battle with the game. I hope it ends well for her.

At what point is enough. Many players have said out loud, if I get my losses back I’m quitting.
So what is she doing wrong?

There are countless stories of very smart people who built up wealth through businesses. But even they succumb to losing millions in the game.

Then there is Macau. Generating billions of profit in bac due to large volume of players. If a player wins, surely they will be back. If a player losses, they will continue to play until they lose it all.

So what can we do different to win? Surely we are not that much smarter than all those people.

I guess we can try and let the results speak for themselves despite naysayers.

I also have some questions regarding your advice.

The up and pull… you suggest 3-1-2-3 or 4-1-2-3 or 5-1-2-3.

Personally I prefer a combination of aggressive betting with profits and flat betting till an aggressive opportunity arrives.

In your suggestion, I was wondering what happens if you get two out of the four wrong. For example, any combination of the two wrong can be disastrous start.

First question, what happens if the first bet is wrong? Now we’re stuck 3units or 4 or 5. Do we bet 1 according to the plan as the next bet or continue at 3units until we win that initial bet?

Within the 4 bets plan we have, we don’t know which ones we will be right or wrong. We can only bet with our intuition and feel. But sometimes that doesn’t work out well. It seems to rely heavily on winning that initial bet? I assume if we lose that initial bet, we should just execute the betting sequence?

My concern is that if you lose the initial bet and the fourth bet while winning the two bets in the middle, we are now many units behind. Either down 1 or 4 or 5 units.

Sometimes my bet success rate is over 50% on easy bac shoes. But after betting over 3000 hands myself, I believe my rate will always be around that number. So in a 4 bet sequence, I hope to achieve 2/4. Seems like the sequence relies heavily on getting the first two right.

Maybe I’m not understanding it as how you present it. Please help.

As for my session last night. It was a rollercoaster. My result was getting 17/36 hands with a small win. I consider being very lucky considering 47% success.

I started getting my first 3 bets wrong. Thankfully was only flat betting. Then a nice run came and got the next 5 right!! Unfortunately I was flat betting it. Damn.

Near the end of my session (which I didn’t know until hindsight), I increased my betting to 500 a bet and luckily went 5/6. I got out of a hole and decided to book a small win.

You suggest playing 2-4 hrs. For live play, that’s basically one shoe if at the beginning or one and a half if at middle plus a new shoe. I don’t think I have the discipline to do that consistently because what if all the shoes available are not to my liking?

I prefer playing with others at the table so I can patiently wait while having many things to observe and entertained by. It prevents my restlessness.

Sometimes I play on a private table and will often burn half the shoe. At the half way point, I’m allowed to request a new shoe if it isn’t to my liking. So in that regard, I can attain the 2-4 hrs of allotted playing time if I play on a private table and select shoes i like. My only hesitation is that I don’t enjoy it as much playing by myself.

Your last update of your session had you around the 6k bankroll? Quite an increase from 600. How are the sessions coming?

I’m interested in hearing about your mental approaches and thoughts within sessions as well as overall progress. Lets book some wins!

Mars is kinda far from where I am, but I’m coming!

A side note to some others in my use of an analogy. When I was young, my mom would always tell me to wear a jacket (it’s cold there sometimes) when I went out to play. Initially I didn’t listen. I knew my environment. My judgment was that I didn’t need one. But then there were times when I placated my mother and brought a jacket. In many of those time, I was so grateful I listened to my mom. I even thought I was smart for listening to her. Sometime her advice was right and other times it was a nuisance.

When I matured a lot more, I realized my mom had the best of intentions. Her approach wasn’t always right in dealing with me, but she meant well and I’m glad I listened. She allowed me to not listen sometimes and I had to learn the hard way. I think parents know that sometimes, you just have to let your kids live and make their own choices. Somehow someway, they will learn. No point in forcing since that never ends well.

Also, mathematicians make horrible therapists. ☺

Sorry for long-winded post. I like to babble.

It's math and I'm not fighting against math. All I'm saying is there's a way to work around this math problem.

Say you have a jar of red and blue candies, in which there are more red than blue pieces -- same as Banker (red) will win more often than Player (blue) in the long term.

If you have no choice other than random selection then more than likely you'll end up with a red piece of candy. But what if there was a way to separate the blue and red pieces? It doesn't have to be complete separation. If there was a way to move the majority of the blue pieces to the top of the jar, your chance of getting a blue piece of candy would increase wouldn't it?

Selecting only Player strong tables to play works the same way. It does NOT guarantee the next hand you bet on will be Player, but the chance of it being Player would be higher... at least higher than it would be at a neutral table where Player and Banker are winning evenly.

Even if you don't understand the game, you can't tell me you're going to bet red anyway when the majority of results at a certain table are blue. It just doesn't make sense.

Banker wins the long term, but Player could at any time win 40 out of 50 hands before the long term Banker edge kicks in to even out the game. If you're constantly looking for that Player strong run to play for the rest of your life then the Banker edge is no longer relevant.

The same goes for the Banker side, if you purposely pick super strong Banker tables to play, it no longer has a slight edge; it has a HUGE edge over Player.

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If you can make the Banker edge irrelevant (which, you can) then you work around the game's negative expectation as well.

@bacguy

This is exactly what frustrates me. In life, there's always gonna be people that blindly take the no-nonsense approach to everything because they're afraid of criticism and afraid of exploring.

It's even more frustrating when you're patient enough to demonstrate you understand both sides yet they fail to do the same.

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I'm new to online gambling myself so I'm a bit shy about it. For starter, online gambling laws for US players are murky. Second, you can't actually sue anyone when the casino decide to ban your account. Notice the one actual screenshot I posted is very small -- just enough information to prove I'm not bull****ting. The last thing I wanna do is piss off online casino managers by doing something wrong that I didn't even know it was wrong in the first place. Maybe after cashing out half of my bank already, I will post more screenshots, but for now I'm just gonna be extra careful because I'm paranoid after reading about troubles people had with cashing out.

As for trip reports, maybe a new thread at a more Bac friendly forum would be better use of my time. I usually get online around the same time, to email, read, play Bac, etc. then be off the computer for the rest of the day to rest my brain. Today, I was replying to this thread and playing Bac at the same time. It almost blew up in my face because I was distracted. Luckily, I walked away with a win, but I don't think I should be posting here anymore

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About that lady, all I can say is you can't argue or reason with tilt. I've been there and done that. Also, you never know who's looking for moral support just for a few minutes or know who is addicted to losing. Getting addicted to losing all your money and walking out of the casino knowing that you're still alive is a real thing for some people. You can't fix that. If you're a nice person, just nod your head with them.

Learning to walk away with an early win or walk away from a medium size loss is one of the most difficult things to do and that's what caused my downfall in the past. I'm sure it's the same for a lot of people in general, not just gamblers. You mentioned playing this game only casually as in your livelihood is not dependent on the game. Maybe what you're losing is so small compared to your tolerance level that you don't feel the need to chase. That's the best position to be in.

The ability to walk away with a small win to fight another day or take a break after a losing session to reset makes all the difference. This is the only hole I have left in my game. I'm stubborn and emotional.

It sucks that we're programmed and taught to be productive from a very young age. This has a huge effect on our internal thoughts and emotions. I think it's a huge part of why we cannot let go of the sunk cost from losing a few hands.

Being productive in gambling doesn't work that way in my opinion. It's not measurable by the hour. Right now, I try to look at it as laying the ground work for the next day or doing a small favor for 2morrow. If I manage to do just a little bit then the next day I will have a little bit of a head start.

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The up and pull is meant to put you on autopilot after winning the initial bet. It's not like your double up strategy where you have to focus intensely to win three separate bets at 1, 2, then 4 units.

The more decisions you have to make the more you'll get wrong. The up and pull is meant for taking your mind off of the game for a while. The hard work is getting the first bet right. Everything else afterward is just extra money. You can only continue with the next bet if you won the previous bet. If you lose the first bet, restart with the first bet. Once you've won the first bet, profit is already guaranteed because you won $30, but continues betting only $10. $20 profit is already locked in.

With 1, 2 and then 4 units to win a total of 7 units like you're currently betting, your initial $10 is always at risk.

Let's say you're betting sticky or that Banker will win the next four hands. First hand you bet 3 units, win that then continue betting banker with 1 unit, win that and continue on banker with 2 units. Once you manage to win the first bet, what to bet next should be automatic.

If you're playing the jump then first bet is 3 units on banker, win it, then 1 unit on Player, win it, then 2 units on Banker and so on...

Don't limit yourself to what I suggested. For example, your series doesn't have to end at 3-1-2-3-4. If it's easy to win at a certain table, let it ride all the way until it crashes, meaning your series could end up being 3-1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10. This is where up and pull makes more money than flat betting. If you let it ride aggressively, you'll always lose the last bet. Don't worry about it. Look at it as freeroll money -- wasn't yours to begin with.

To up and pull starting with 3 or more units, play with a 50 or 100-unit bankroll so you'll worry less about losing the first few bets. Even if you lose the first few bets, if your table/series/hand selection rules are strict enough, you'll eventually win it back or go on a run that will turn a profit. If you are very strict about what table you play, you will automatically increase your chance of winning.

(I like to play sticky tables because it works well with up and pull. Sticky tables will usually have long runs and that's where up and pull makes the most money. However, I don't depend on runs. It simply helps me reach my daily goal faster. For you, 1-2-4 works much better at jumpy tables. Sit out until it will likely jump B,P,B,P,B and make your three bets of 1, 2, and 4 consecutively. That's much easier to win than trying to win separate bets. Caution: it has to be extremely jumpy.)

Each time I lose my first bet of the up and pull series, I will sit out for a while. If I lose 2 first bets consecutively even after sitting out for a while, I will review my series selection and table selection to see what went wrong or what has changed. Afterward, I will sit out even longer to get the table I really want. Getting the right table at the right time makes all the difference.

At some point, all of us run into a string of bad luck regardless of what we do. That's when taking a break to literally get outside the casino becomes a huge factor.

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When I first get to a table, I will not start out with the my normal up and pull for that day. I'd make very small test bets to see how I'm doing or to just build up a money pot for the first few bets. Let's say my real bets for the day is $30 each. Before I make a $30 bet at a new table, I want to win a $10, $15, or $20 bet first.

Typically, I will use 2-1-2-3-4-5... starting with a very small $ amount that is tiny when compared to my actual bankroll -- aggressive up and pull but tiny in actual value just to feel out the table.

When I feel like I have to ammo to play with, I'll start betting like I should for that day. If I keep winning, I will adjust to more conservative up and pull, then back to more aggressive up and pull. Just to clarify:

2-1-2-3-4-5-6 is aggressive
3-1-2-3-4-5-6 is semi aggressive
4-1-2-3-4-5-6 is conservative

So I would

2-1-2... to test and build up ammo
3-1-2... once I have ammo
4-1-2... if I continued winning
4-1-2... again
2-1-2... if I continued winning

The starting bet for 4-1-2-3-4-5-6 has a higher dollar value, but it drastically drops down to 1 unit on the next bet which means you're locking in a lot of money and risking very little to continue, which gives it an aggressive first bet, but it doesn't qualify as an aggressive up and pull.

When you're lucky or run into a pretty table, you'll often find that the middle part is where you should make more aggressive first bets and the latter part is where to make conservative bets because you don't know when it's going to end and you're just betting to milk it as long as you can.

So, 2-1-2 or something very low compared to your bankroll to build up ammo. Next, bet normally. Next, up and pull normally with an aggressive first bet (which makes the up and pull series itself conservative) to take advantage of your luck. Then, go back to aggressive up and pull, but low dollar first bet to keep on milking the table without risking too much.

(Sorry if most of this doesn't make sense, it's 4 hours paste my bed time.)

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It sounds like you play at a very busy or slow casino. An 8 deck shoe of 75 hands usually end before 1 and a half hours, even with people changing money for chips constantly.

6 to 8 hours is fine if you're playing for fun and not daily. I've done it many times before and it's definitely not good for you. You need to look at resting your mind as a part of winning.

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My conversation with you is exactly what I was looking for when I started this thread. I wished it was free of people trying to derail it though. Because of them, I've lost interest. It's unnatural to me. If you're talking with friends in your house and some obnoxious guy keep talking ****, I would tell him to shut the **** up. We can't do that here obviously.

Good luck with your play. Maybe we'll catch up later.

And this is why they build those great-big, fancy casinos.

The jar with candies is a pretty apt analogy. Let's say the jar has 51 red and 49 blue - when you pick a red you lose your bet, when you pick a blue you double it. Assume that they are mixed perfectly, you can't see into the jar, and there is no way to distinguish them except by colour. Obviously under these conditions it's a negative expectation game. But, if you pick candies and keep picking them without replacing the ones you picked then eventually you can get a situation where there is an imbalance and it becomes +EV.

However, if you replace the one you picked every time, each pull has exactly the same EV. If you play for long enough you will see all kinds of runs happen, but purely by chance - the EV of each pull is the same.

Baccarat (just like Keno, Roulette, Slot Machines, Craps, etc.) is like the second example, the result of the previous hand does not affect the next result (again, unless you are talking about a system for tracking the cards remaining in the deck, and using some complex math to compute your EV). The probability of Player winning is the same after a series of 10 Banker wins as it is after a series of 10 Player wins (again, it may be changed by the specific cards that you observed during that run, but it has nothing to do with the Player vs. Banker result).

Even if you don't understand the game, you can't tell me you're going to bet red anyway when the majority of results at a certain table are blue. It just doesn't make sense.

Anyone who understands the game will tell you that it doesn't matter. Your brain is designed to pick up patterns - that's because in life most patterns repeat themselves (when you see storm clouds it usually rains after, if you there are hot girls at bar x every Friday night you'll keep going there, if your girlfriend cheats on you once she'll probably do it again). Gambling games are designed to trick the pattern recognition part of your brain by making it seem like there is a pattern when there isn't. People who are intuitive by nature tend to be big losers at gambling because in life they have learned to rely on their intuition for picking up on subtle patterns, while in gambling this skill doesn't apply and just causes them to put more money toward a losing effort.

Again, just play if you enjoy gambling, but stop wasting energy trying to come up with a way to beat the game.

Joke is the wrong word I think.

It is to most of us. And a very delightful one at that!

This thread is so heartbreaking to read. It's sad that so many people who think like OP exist... Humanity is doomed.

i disagree. I have played all casino games over past 10 years and been a overall loser at them all i would say. The closest i got to a huge score was pai gow poker, one card from a 7 card straight flush with 25$ on the bonus= would have paid over $100000. however baccarat is a different type of game and I've started playing recently. I play at empire city its electronic baccarat but i seem to have a knack for knowing when to bet. I have won quite a bit over past 6 months, but i do have to say i often am down early and bounce back. why can't i win early and keep winning?