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Old 07-15-2016, 06:39 PM   #26
asymbacguy
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Re: Baccarat

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jion_Wansu View Post
At any given hand, regardless, and f hand history, the banker has a small edge against the player because of the rules regarding the drawing of the 3rd card. Example, player shows 4, banker shows 5. The probability of a player getting a monkey is pretty high to allow the banker to win...
Yeah, but the third card rule intervenes just on 8.6% of the total hands (about one hand over 11).

If you are betting Banker on the symmetrical hands where the payment is 0.95:1 you are wasting a lot of money. Conversely in such situations Player bets are paying a zero house tax.

Actually the very important 1/11 ratio could be studied in some way.
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Old 07-16-2016, 09:06 AM   #27
OmahaFanatical4
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Re: Baccarat

the dragon bet is countable but not worthwhile
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Old 07-31-2016, 06:42 PM   #28
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Re: Baccarat

I've been dealing baccarat for years and have yet to see anyone playing who isn't a complete tard who thinks they can predict future outcomes based on past results.
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Old 08-02-2016, 02:57 AM   #29
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Re: Baccarat

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Originally Posted by Edgelooker1 View Post
Just doing some reading reference Baccarat and came across "Computer-Perfect Play against the Baccarat Pairs Bet" over at AP heat. I find it very interesting. At my local casino where they have the electronic stations or as some call it "stadium" baccarat, its normal to see players with their smart phones out the whole time they play. I just wish their was a free app available for it, lol.
Yeah, just sit there inputting every card dealt into your app the entire time and place one huge wager every 90min, the casino will never suspect anything.

Last edited by chinagambler; 08-02-2016 at 03:04 AM.
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Old 08-02-2016, 03:05 AM   #30
Bighurt52235
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Re: Baccarat

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Originally Posted by chinagambler View Post
Yeah, just sit there inputting every card dealt into your app the entire time and place one huge wager every 90min, the casino will never suspect anything.
I don't know what this app is, but you could get away with it where I work.
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Old 08-06-2016, 08:29 PM   #31
JSTAT
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Re: Baccarat

I explain on Periscope how to win at the EZ Baccarat (and the regular mini/midi baccarat Player bet) Dragon 7 side bet which pays 40-1 counting cards using the JSTAT Count with the side counting of 8's/9's. The JSTAT Count counts the 2-9's as +1 and 10's and picture cards as -2 (the aces are not counted). An 8 or 9 comes out very 6.5 cards with eight of them in each deck. More 8/9's gone with minus counts give us the card counting edge at Player bets at baccarat and the EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 side bet.

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Old 08-14-2016, 03:25 PM   #32
Jion_Wansu
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Re: Baccarat

Turned $40 into $700 in 20 minutes. Lost it all back the next day...
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Old 09-04-2016, 10:38 PM   #33
Royal29
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Re: Baccarat

I value all opinions on this subject. With that stated are there any winning players out there? To profit long term is not a likely occurance from what I have seen. The only players I have seen win more than not have just hit and run over a certain $ amount.
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Old 09-05-2016, 11:14 AM   #34
Blackchipsmatter
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Re: Baccarat

The casino is profiting long term. You can win short term fairly often on this low house edge game, and it is one of my personal favorites if I feel like gambling, which i usually do!
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Old 09-05-2016, 10:34 PM   #35
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Re: Baccarat

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Originally Posted by Royal29 View Post
I value all opinions on this subject. With that stated are there any winning players out there? To profit long term is not a likely occurance from what I have seen. The only players I have seen win more than not have just hit and run over a certain $ amount.
The game is close enough to even that there are certainly many many lifetime winners. Some of them even realize it's pure luck.
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Old 09-07-2016, 05:14 PM   #36
MonkeyMonkey
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Re: Baccarat

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Originally Posted by Bighurt52235 View Post
I've been dealing baccarat for years and have yet to see anyone playing who isn't a complete tard who thinks they can predict future outcomes based on past results.
I want to hear some degen stories.

I know a guy in Gary, IN, who won 350K twice and lost it all back in Bac. Thought he had a system, he was going for a million. It was like watching a trainwreck in slow motion.
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Old 09-10-2016, 07:58 AM   #37
chinagambler
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Re: Baccarat

I tried using a spreadsheet on my phone while sitting at a baccarat stadium in Macau and within 5min staff came and told me to stop. I wasn't being very subtle though. I didn't even place a single bet, I was just inputting every card dealt.

Last edited by chinagambler; 09-10-2016 at 08:06 AM.
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Old 09-11-2016, 09:07 PM   #38
asymbacguy
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Re: Baccarat

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Originally Posted by chinagambler View Post
I tried using a spreadsheet on my phone while sitting at a baccarat stadium in Macau and within 5min staff came and told me to stop. I wasn't being very subtle though. I didn't even place a single bet, I was just inputting every card dealt.
Those casino geniuses don't know that a vulgar manual registration will get the player the same advantage calculated by an electronic device.

So next time they'll forbid you to write down anything. :-)
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Old 09-13-2016, 02:26 PM   #39
Oh_4Q_Man
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Re: Baccarat

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Originally Posted by TS2 View Post
so why would you ever bet anything other than banker?

It makes no sense to do anything but bet banker all the time.
I've seen player hit a run of 15, yes, 15 straight wins. That's why.


Ofc I bet banker thinking player can't possibly win again..... It did. Over and over again.
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Old 09-13-2016, 04:52 PM   #40
NewOldGuy
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Re: Baccarat

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Originally Posted by Oh_4Q_Man View Post
I've seen player hit a run of 15, yes, 15 straight wins. That's why.
I was bored so did the math, and you should see this or a longer streak about once every 40K hands dealt.
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Old 09-13-2016, 05:22 PM   #41
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Re: Baccarat

A few days ago I was dealing, after 33 hands there were more ties than banker wins. At 30 hands it was 10 apiece.
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Old 09-13-2016, 05:23 PM   #42
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Re: Baccarat

Quote:
Originally Posted by Oh_4Q_Man View Post
I've seen player hit a run of 15, yes, 15 straight wins. That's why.


Ofc I bet banker thinking player can't possibly win again..... It did. Over and over again.
Here's a guy who doesn't understand probability and EV.
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Old 09-24-2016, 08:44 PM   #43
Jion_Wansu
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Re: Baccarat

I've seen the following hands in order:

player
tie
banker
tie
player
tie
banker
(you guessed it) tie

then hat pattern ended.

I also saw a shoe hat had 7 ties, 2 bankers, 25 players. Only 2 bankers??????
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Old 09-27-2016, 05:02 PM   #44
DannyHimself
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Re: Baccarat

I've been on a $50 table that had 19 players in a row. Skip a couple of hands and then 21 bankers in a row. The casino had to refill the chip tray 3 times over. I think cumulatively we(the whole table) took them for about 500k that night. Max bet was 6k.
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Old 10-06-2016, 10:17 AM   #45
cap217
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Re: Baccarat

I know it's 50/50 and every hand is independent but betting the runs seems like the best way to play. Sometimes you get a run of a side and you can make a lot of money. I feel like it happens at least once a shoe.

The annoying thing about this game is that it's so slow with all the stupid players looking at patterns and discussing a strategy and waiting until the last possible second to bet.
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Old 11-15-2016, 12:40 AM   #46
Supd001
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Re: Baccarat

Math check on strategy for EZ Baccarat (no commission on banker wins, 3 card seven banker win is a push)

Ev calculation for $40 banker bet + $1 dragon bet every hand (probs from wizard of odds)
Banker non 3 card 7: .436064 * 40 = 17.44256.
Banker 3 card 7: .022534 * 40 = .90136
Tie: .095156 * -1 = -.095156
Player: .446247 * -41 = -18.2961
Total. = -.04736

Did I do this right?

Betting $41 to win 40 (2.5 % commission on banker wins)
Lose $1 on ties
Lose $41 on player wins

If correct, doing this plus counting the panda could be positive ev, and could get rated as a big limit player for comps (same odds 80/2, 120/3, etc) when only losing five cents per hand long term

Thoughts ?
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Old 11-15-2016, 01:15 AM   #47
Supd001
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Re: Baccarat

Never mind, found my mistake, win on banker non 3 card 7 is 39 not 40.

Seemed too good to be true.
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Old 11-17-2016, 03:25 PM   #48
OmahaFanatical4
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Re: Baccarat

you should have known something was off when you decided betting tie was a good idea
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Old 01-06-2017, 01:32 PM   #49
stbain
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Smile Re: Baccarat

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bighurt52235 View Post
I've been dealing baccarat for years and have yet to see anyone playing who isn't a complete tard who thinks they can predict future outcomes based on past results.
I can predict the outcome even without the past results. I predict that it will be one of these three results:
- Banker 45.8597% chance
- Player 44.6247% chance
- Tie 9.5156% chance

In all seriousness, baccarat is a great illustration of the gambler's fallacy. In an eight deck shoe, even if you count the cards perfectly you will pretty much end up losing. The past results of the hands do not impact the next hand to come out of the shoe, so no betting system based on past results will work over the long run. Great explanation here: http://vegasclick.com/gambling/fallacy

Some people will tell you that just betting the banker bet every time is the way to go; however, even that won't be profitable in the long run because of the house taking a commission on banker wins.

To my knowledge, I am the only person who has developed a system of beating baccarat profitably over the long term using the rules and odds as they currently exist in just about every US casino. The reason? I play the odds and do not base any prediction on the previous outcome.
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Old 01-06-2017, 02:06 PM   #50
Bighurt52235
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Re: Baccarat

Lol at coming in and trolling the baccarat thread today.
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