Quote:
Originally Posted by jb514
soo... go long?
You're missing the point.
Hard-to-short situations almost always develop on symbols all reasonable people know are overpriced where one or more irrational players hold the majority of the stock, don't lend, and float is limited. P&D schemes are a perfect example of a cause, but it can also happen in larger cap symbols where the insiders are irrationally optimistic for some reason.
On hard to short symbols, they almost always go way down eventually, albeit often with a squeeze or two in the middle. Going long during a pump/squeeze scenario is almost always a bad idea because of that. For example, consider VW and the 2008 squeeze. Even before the squeeze, the week of the squeeze was THE EXACT HIGH from all time in the past to today. Worst possible long! Great short - it lost 80% of it's pre-squeeze value over the next year and a half - but it's a short you can't have because your broker won't be able to get borrow and the squeeze is a bit of a bitch to fade. SAC, Highside, and Greelight all got burned trading short in VW even though they were exactly right economically.
P&Ds are easy to play on paper, but very hard to play in reality if you demand any sort of risk protection.
Last edited by SplawnDarts; 08-29-2014 at 12:32 PM.