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Originally Posted by boobies4me
Seems like there's a lot of reaching assumptions being made in this post to me. It assumes someone has to throw a huge amount of money at something for the experience to get their feet wet, it assumes that getting a job in a certain industry will translate to the relevant knowledge/experience necessary to prep someone for an ownership role in that area, assumes that someones chances in a certain business can only be a pure crap shoot, and assumes that the path of starting from the bottom up in a career to get the inside knowledge to then start a business will come out ahead EV wise vs someone grinding poker income and trying to explore business options from there.
I'll make the assumption that experience in an industry improves future prospects in entrepreneurship in that industry, yes.
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Using a loose poker analogy since it's a poker forum, it seems similar to me to a high stakes NLHE winner deciding to start out trying to learn PLO/mixed games at mistakes by just jumping right in and playing, while continuing to grind his normal NLHE games -- as opposed to quitting NLHE altogether, buying a bunch of PLO/mixed games books, then hitting the micros for 5 years to really learn the game before then moving up. Even though the second one increases chance of not losing and prevents jumping in "randomly", the experience they would gain for the relevant games they want to be playing in the first scenario, while continuing NLHE would likely come out ahead.
There's also a hedge factor, NLHE could die and its nice to have a fall back skill, for example. You could also argue that PLO/mixed games improves your NLHE game, even though on paper is sounds suspect, I've heard many players saying that PLO has opened their eyes to some realities of NLHE that they never have thought of. Also there's the chance of overall happiness being raised because you like mixed games more than NLHE, even if the profit is less. But yeah, I *think* you were alluding too that this decision isn't easy and that sometimes trying to play it fancy can make you worse off. Always a risk, but I take the view that some diverisifaction is a good idea. Maybe thats the trader/investor side of me talking.
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I don't see why the option has to be throwing "money at random businesses" anyway, I mean, it's not like many people are going to take some huge chunk of their bankroll and then try to start some random tech company all by themselves if they know nothing about the tech field. If you have the capital, you should be able to combine your resources/money with someone else who already has this insider experience or go with something where the knowledge barrier or learning curve isn't nearly akin to throwing darts at a wall. I believe the real estate thread in this forum is giving people a lot of information for how to get involved in real estate that most people who have been in the real estate industry for years don't have.
On the first point, I've seen it happen. On the 2nd point, I agree completely, but networking and figuring out who is good isn't easy. Another way to put it, getting an industry job involves 'getting out there', sort to speak, and mixing it up with people who you could assemble projects with. There's other ways to do it, but I also find that smart insiders typically want to work with other smart insiders. These people are at a premium, and if someone's interest in an entreprenuer venture with you is soley based on your bank balance, I'd consider that a big red flag.
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And if someone wanted to open a franchise, isn't the limited upside a function of lesser risk? I thought that was the whole idea behind a franchise, using an established business model that works, where you're assisted, and mainly just expanding their business through finding a location? Clearly there would be risks, but starting a subway or McDonalds in a good location doesn't seem like "high" risk to me. Or if someone like your roommate found someone with a lot of experience in working in the smoothie industry and partnered with them, I don't see why that can't be an option that's not so inferior to working in a smoothie shop for 5 years making smoothies to then now try to start one from the business end.
Yes, I think so. But franchises have risk, many of the good ones are hard to get into and there are franchise networks that go bust frequently. McDonald's does a full evaluation of the business accrement of all its new franchisees, its almost like applying for a senior position.
Also, you don't need to pour smoothies to work in the smoothie business. But its important to understand the service industry and what quality control is how to deal with suppliers. If you have no idea how to do this then a good way to figure out is to work with a firm for a year. Its not like you can't play poker on the side. Also how does one filter out good partners from bad partners? How do you know who is worthy?