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What I've Learnt After Reading 10 Books About Stocks What I've Learnt After Reading 10 Books About Stocks

07-31-2015 , 07:19 AM
tilson is crap, pabrai I think actually has game.

Yeah he effed up in 2008 and but I think he learned a lot form it and came out a better investor. too bad he had to learn with other peoples money
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07-31-2015 , 07:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CoolTimer
What do you guys think of allocating a big chunk of your portfolio to BRK.B (is there comparable stuff out there?) . Which is pretty much a 0% fee, value type index fund.
the fee is the premium you pay over the mark to market value. Mutual funds trade at NAV. Berkshire trades above it. Doesnt mean don't buy, just giving you a different way to think about it.
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07-31-2015 , 08:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CoolTimer
What do you guys think of allocating a big chunk of your portfolio to BRK.B (is there comparable stuff out there?) . Which is pretty much a 0% fee, value type index fund.
I would not. We're at the top of this bull market, last thing I'd want to be invested in.
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07-31-2015 , 08:33 AM
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Originally Posted by paulrosti
Mohnish Pabrai an his book the Dhando Investor are both jokes. He got creamed during the financial crisis, and he doubled down on a number of stocks that went to zero, like Pinnacle Airlines and some lame financial company where he kept buying until it went to zero. He used to always talk about how Pinnacle Airlines was immune to downturns.

He basically talks as if he is a value investor, yet he has zero understanding of downside risks and permanent losses of capital. He is similar to Bill Miller of Legg Mason in that way. Google Bill Miller losses and you will see that he also doubled and tripled down on every company that went under in 2008 and 2009. Mohnish Pabrai sent letters out begging for money so he could invest at the lows in 2009, but he got rebuffed. He was fully invested at the market top, so he had no cash to buy low.

Pabrai is one of the most overrated so-called value investors there is. Another fraud is Whitney Tilson.
Very interesting, I'll read their books anyway. I'll probably do some background reading about them beforehand however.
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07-31-2015 , 08:49 AM
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Originally Posted by spidercrab
What? Vanguard's Total Market Index has an expense ratio of 0.17% (and is even lower for higher-balance portfolios). Hard to imagine that you're going to beat that building your own diversified portfolio.



What on earth does this mean? If you're buying multiple assets at some fixed %, like your initial post suggests, over time those assets are going to become differently weighted as they generate different returns. If you want to stick with a constant % of each asset, of course you'll have to rebalance (or effectively rebalance with new contributions). Unless you're making some philosophical statement about buying the market-weighted world portfolio of all assets, which it doesn't seem like you're trying to do.

Overall, I think you've picked up some valuable lessons:
1. Save money
2. Invest that money in a low-cost diversified portfolio

But your discussion of taking advantage of bull and bear markets suggests that you're going to try to take more of an active role than you should. Identify low-cost index funds, buy them, and spend your time/energy on other stuff. I always recommend Vanguard's Target Retirement Funds.

Sorry!! You are completely right, I was thinking of actively managed funds for some reason, these tend to be 1-2% PA.

You don't want to incur the charges of selling your stocks to rebalance your portfolio, (especially stocks making a profit - you'll get taxed on your profits.) So IMO the best way to balance your portfolio is by gradually scaling your investment in each stock ~ depending on performance & your personal judgement. Just want to reiterate, I don't consider myself an expert by any means, I have a long way to go. I just wanted to lay out some basics I've learnt from reading investment books.

I appreciate all your constructive criticism and opinions.
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07-31-2015 , 09:40 AM
Is it bad I don't agree with basically anything in the original post? Looks like I don't have to spend $ buying investment books at least.
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07-31-2015 , 10:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CoolTimer
What do you guys think of allocating a big chunk of your portfolio to BRK.B (is there comparable stuff out there?) . Which is pretty much a 0% fee, value type index fund.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ahnuld
the fee is the premium you pay over the mark to market value. Mutual funds trade at NAV. Berkshire trades above it. Doesnt mean don't buy, just giving you a different way to think about it.
I don't think this is a good way of thinking about Berkshire - it hasn't been a quasi mutual fund for a long time. Take a look at the most recent annual report:
http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/2014ar/2014ar.pdf

The four major operating segments are insurance, regulated, capital-intensive businesses (railroads and utilities), manufacturing/service/retailing, finance and financial products. In total, that's a pretty diverse set of businesses - that part is true. But you still have a substantial amount of single-company risk that you don't have in a true index fund.

I also disagree with ahnuld's point, at least as I interpret it. Berkshire does trade above its book value, the same way that the vast majority of public firms trade above book value. But this isn't a premium above NAV in the sense of closed-end fund premiums, where you can compare the market value of the fund holdings to the market value of the fund itself. That's because so much of Berkshire's assets are not marked to market. At the end of 2014, they had $117.5 billion of common stocks carried at market value. But they had a total of $526.2 billion in total assets. So in no way should anyone be thinking that the difference between book value and market value is any kind of premium/discount to NAV.

And this is something that Buffett says explicitly in the annual report:

Quote:
In our early decades, the relationship between book value and intrinsic value was much closer than it is now. That was true because Berkshire’s assets were then largely securities whose values were continuously restated to reflect their current market prices. In Wall Street parlance, most of the assets involved in the calculation of book value were “marked to market.”

Today, our emphasis has shifted in a major way to owning and operating large businesses. Many of these are worth far more than their cost-based carrying value. But that amount is never revalued upward no matter how much the value of these companies has increased. Consequently, the gap between Berkshire’s intrinsic value and its book value has materially widened.
I would not recommend putting more than 5-10% of your portfolio in Berkshire, the same way that I wouldn't recommend putting more than 5-10% of any individual stock in your portfolio. And I say that as one of the world's biggest Buffett fanboys - I've got a picture of me and him sitting on my desk looking at me as I type this.
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07-31-2015 , 10:10 AM
So you've read some books and got an understanding of the market.
Now you can read every investment book there is and you will then have infinite opinions on every topic. Books are good but books are books.
If you want to learn how to manage money you should also manage (fake) money. Get a demo-portfolio somewhere and see how you fare, then you can read more books and see where you failed.
Not saying you shouldn't read now, it's damn important. But reading about something and actually doing something are two different things.
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07-31-2015 , 01:56 PM
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Originally Posted by BooLoo
So you've read some books and got an understanding of the market.
Now you can read every investment book there is and you will then have infinite opinions on every topic. Books are good but books are books.
If you want to learn how to manage money you should also manage (fake) money. Get a demo-portfolio somewhere and see how you fare, then you can read more books and see where you failed.
Not saying you shouldn't read now, it's damn important. But reading about something and actually doing something are two different things.

I have a real portfolio of approx 8k - I know that's not a lot, I'm fairly young (20). I hope to build it to 11k by the end of this year.
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07-31-2015 , 03:32 PM
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Originally Posted by loololollo
80% Stocks 20% Short term bonds (less volatility than long term bonds and they have proven to offer close to the same returns)

Your portfolio will need to be diverse as possible; invest as follows:

25% Small / Mid cap stocks
20% Foreign stocks
50-55% Blue Chip Stocks
*5% Speculative stocks ~ Small Cap Preferable
I can mutual fund each category, right?
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07-31-2015 , 04:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by spidercrab
The four major operating segments are insurance, regulated, capital-intensive businesses (railroads and utilities), manufacturing/service/retailing, finance and financial products. In total, that's a pretty diverse set of businesses - that part is true. But you still have a substantial amount of single-company risk that you don't have in a true index fund.
+1 to this, re: just buying BRK. (I do have some BRK)

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Originally Posted by UNLVfreak
I can mutual fund each category, right?
Yep, or ETF's, either way. Either gives way better diversification than the average investor can ever replicate buying individually or just buying BRK.
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07-31-2015 , 05:12 PM
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Originally Posted by ahnuld
tilson is crap, pabrai I think actually has game.

Yeah he effed up in 2008 and but I think he learned a lot form it and came out a better investor. too bad he had to learn with other peoples money
the thing with Pabrai & Guy Spier is that they've made themselves out to be Buffett acolytes, and they're also both very big into Tony Robbins type stuff. I always feel like the relentless Buffett references are a gimmick to attract investors (they famously paid like hundreds of thousands of dollars for a lunch with Warren).

Quote:
Originally Posted by yukoncpa
Thanks for recommend. Do you have others you would suggest?
The Intelligent Investor if you haven't already read it
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07-31-2015 , 11:06 PM
Didnt pabrai beat the market by at least 20% since he started?
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08-01-2015 , 04:13 PM
I more or less agree with everyone's thoughts on BRK. It's a good company and it's diversified, but not in the same league as an index fund. I own a lot of BRK (about 10% of my portfolio), but I don't think it would be a great idea to throw everything in there.

My favorite thing about BRK is that there are no dividends that I'll have to pay tax on every year. My gains will only be realized when I sell, which I'll likely do when I'm retired and presumably in a lower tax bracket.
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08-01-2015 , 04:43 PM
I've read The Dhando Investor. It has a lot of good principles and concepts that should be related to value investing. The problem is actually putting them into practice.

I've read quite a bit of investing/trading books in the last 12 years. I actually love reading and educating myself -- although the past year or so I've been busy with other things that I haven't had the mental capacity to read anymore. The point I'm getting at is that while reading can be informative, exciting, and enlightening, the problem is that it doesn't actually get you to where you want to be if all you do is read and don't put anything into practice.

I used to read, read, and read looking for that "a ha" moment. Then I realized I was reading for entertainment and not really doing much actual investing. The best thing to do is to put down the books and start focusing on the actual activities that will bring you closer to buying companies. Reading annual reports, quarterly reports, transcripts of real companies.
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08-03-2015 , 04:59 AM
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Originally Posted by loololollo
Hey, I'm not claiming to be some financial guru, I'm just stating what i've found out through the books i've read. The beauty with diversifying as much as possible is you don't have to rebalance your portfolio - at all.
Wat?? Of course you do. Would you still want to be holding PALM that you might have bought 15 years ago? Are you buying stuff and riding it right into the ground if it tanks?

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Thanks for the recommendation though! I will read it, hopefully I'm more educated by the time I write my thread after i've read 20/25 books.
Choose better books. What 10 are they?

Why would you only want to match "the market"? Why not beat it? There are plenty of non-discretionary strategies that beat "the market".
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