22% down for the day

I'd be scared to know how much money 2+2 has lost on this stock over the last year or so.

I missed it! Was busy trying to trade FSLR. Will have to read the transcripts

Yeah seriously. I thank my lucky stars to not be long. Wonder if Brian still has his position.

It def has to be up there on the leaderboard in terms of biggest losers on the forum. Didn't listen to conf call but I'm sure someone will weigh in eventually

edit: http://seekingalpha.com/article/4018...ategic-options

Would be epic of Ahnuld had been short HOS the whole time

Ahnuld can you chime in on hos? I don't really trust sa articles

im short glf, long hos

that seekingalpha article is pretty funny. not sure what conference call he listened to.

debt is due in 33 months. If the offshore market looks the same by then, yes they will file. But so will glf, tdw, do, rig and everyone else involved in offshore.

theres no current issues and non until 2019. their debt is covenant lite and they should be only marginally cash flow negative next year due to interest payments. Not to mention glf and tdw stacking boats/going bankrupt will probably get day rates moving higher for the work that remains

that "restriction" on their line of credit is a covenant that says if you have cash on your balance sheet you cant use the line. so as soon as they need the line they have acess to the line.

I suggest anyone who owns the stock to actually listen to the 40 minute call or read the transcript in 20 minutes instead of believing seeking alpha, the toilet of value investing

we've been long the bond and short the stocks for a while... has worked out p well. we actually covered both our shorts on GLF and HOS about two weeks ago as the risk/reward isn't as favorable (in hindsight 2 weeks too early).

On GLF we agree that it's worse than HOS and most likely going to file (I honestly thought filing would be imminent right now but their latest covenant changes are pretty hilarious). At this point for GLF and HOS we're worried about being short squeezed.... especially for GLF. Market cap for GLF is tiny right now and Raging holds 20% of float so there's always a chance u find urself down 40% on the position one morning which we'd like to avoid.

Our thesis is probably similar to ahnuld's except that we want to be in what we believe to be the fulcrum for both. I do think HOS equity might be interesting at this point in time as a long dated option on oil being above $60 in 2018 or so. We certainly did not expect things to be as bad as them not marketing 75% of their fleet.

Ahnuld, it seems LSB looks much more interesting currently? With a clear picture on balance sheet. They have replacement value of roughly 2bn$ (assuming 1000$ per ton). Enough liquidity (100m$+) to survive several years at least at current prices. Stock is trading 30% of replacement value currently. Annual Cash burn is 30-35m$ at current prices. But with cost cuts to overhead probably closer to 15m$.

If prices recover this is at least a 6-7 bagger. And with MLP in the mix, probably a 10 bagger. While not taking much more risk than CF.

UAN probably a 5-7 bagger. VS CF a 3-4x.

Seems like large discount to replacement value + attractiveness to acquirer puts a nice bottom on equity value of 5-15$ per share at least. And discount is not really warranted, even with extra risk.

I added some.

agree with all of this

Im surprised more people arent looking into ODP like xxplosive.

They just reported an in line quarter to my view but big surprise to expectations (stock was up like 15%).

Trading at 2x 2017 ev/ebitda and you have 1$ a share in cash for downside protection.

Can you comment on ODP a bit... I've only spent 5 min on it so far but some Qs...

1) Is Bloomberg totally wrong on debt and cash here? I'm assuming we add the timber notes and don't count the recourse debt to get to a high net cash / share #? What specifically is the non-recourse debt related to. I thought they had a lot of debt as ODP / OMX as separate entities historically... how did they reduce so much.

2) When adjusting for the above why is this thing so cheap relative to SPLS?

Bought some STZ on the dip last week. Solid long term hold IMO. My in-depth analysis: People are sad, they drink. People are happy, they drink!

Nice call on ODP. I'm not sure I see much more upside but at $3 it was a great find.

ACW got whisked away from me. 20% gain over 4 years due to cost averaging down. That sucked.

Current Longs: RAD, APOL, IM, AGO, RAIL, ODP, PDEX, ENZN, PRSC (preferreds), HOS, SLP

putting 4x forward ebitda in 1 year you're at $6 so a good amount.

I tweeted this morning that baupost filed their 13f for Q3 and it was a new position. good company

Investing in top-quality dividend stocks is what a lot of successful investors do over their lifetimes. This class of investor has just one goal in mind while picking investments: stability in a company’s cash flow generation.

Any of you follow media co? Doing a deep dive now and would be interested to hear some thoughts (both long n short)

Another ODP update:
https://hotforsecurity.bitdefender.c...dnt-17190.html

Graham Cluley (author of the article) is legit and has a great reputation in the infosec world. More than likely this is a blip, but a Senator calling for an FTC investigation is never fun.

Trimmed some ODP at 4.75, that was a quick one

AFCO ($7.84) shareholders should be getting .7417 shares of FPI ($11.63) per share of AFCO, in January. Great annualized return at current prices, if the deal goes through.

Do you have more information on this? Any links?

https://alphavulture.com/2016/11/17/...ger-arbitrage/

Is this just a steel rally or full blown recovery?

I like this idea

Despite being a Canadian bank, TD’s sizable U.S. based revenue means it could enjoy growth just like its American counterparts. Investors looking for income and growth should take a serious look at TD stock.