Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Business, Finance, and Investing Making money, investing in markets, and running businesses

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 11-14-2011, 09:43 PM   #51
NajdorfDefense
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
NajdorfDefense's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Looking forward to AA
Posts: 16,140
Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

Anyone who thinks EA and Blizzard don't have 'barriers to entry' in their industry is wildly distorting the meaning of the phrase, or kidding themselves.
It's like saying Coke has no moat because you can brew your own cola [and sell it!]

You can pirate MS software also, they got a pretty friggin' big moat from where I sit.
NajdorfDefense is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-14-2011, 09:47 PM   #52
tastychicken
old hand
 
tastychicken's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: tilting my roll away
Posts: 1,775
Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

I agree w/ there being barriers to entry for graphic intensive games for ps3/xbox360/etc. i think heiko covers the points pretty well.

but as I stated before, I believe they are nonexistent for tablet/smartphone games. heck, even someone on this forum posted that him and his father make games for the tablet/smartphone and do somewhat well. if i read correctly, more smartphones are selling than pc's.
tastychicken is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-14-2011, 09:48 PM   #53
Xaston
Pooh-Bah
 
Xaston's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: UYD Nation
Posts: 4,441
Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

The ease with which a programmer can write and upload something to the android app store that could legitamately get me to spend my time/money on it instead of on a blizzard activision game is much.....easier (im a bad writer) than for someone making their own cola getting them on the shelves of my local Albertson's and having me buy them instead of coke.

I think?
Xaston is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-17-2011, 01:18 PM   #54
VanceAce
centurion
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 124
Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mori****a System View Post
I'll share mine: 30% of my portfolio is in GRVY and I'm going to add more. Please share any thoughts you may have.

Current Assets: ~$75 million
Total Assets: ~$126 million
Total Liabilities: ~$35 million
Market Cap: ~$32 million
Revenue per year: ~$40 million

No debt, EPS has been consistently 6c-8c a quarter.

Just from the financials, GRVY appears to be quite good. It's cash flow positive, it has no long term debt, has a lot of cash on hand and is currently trading well below its NCAV. GRVY is also quite famous, deriving the vast majority of its revenue from Ragnarok Online, which is a very well known and quite profitable MMORPG. If you ask people what's the first thing they think of when you say MMORPG, probably WoW will be the majority answer, but the majority in Asia (and not an insignificant minority in the west) will say Ragnarok Online.

Catalyst: The REALLY long awaited sequel, RO2, is scheduled to be released first quarter 2012. Final open beta test is expected to be released within the next 2-3 months. People have been waiting for over 5 years for this game. To give an idea how anxious people are in getting to play RO2, when the first closed beta test was announced only in Korean and released only in Korean, 70,000 people from around the world tried to log in simultaneously and crashed their server.

It is possible that they may delay the release of RO2 even further depending on the outcome of the beta test. However, it will eventually be released, as they are deriving the majority of their revenues from 9-year old RO1 and have realized that they must do everything they can to ensure RO2 is good.

Worst case scenario: RO2 generates no new revenue and merely cannibalizes from people playing RO1. However, GRVY has contracts to license the game out to various companies for $40 million + % in revenue. That will at least double their yearly revenue of $40 million, making the stock a double bagger plus.

Best case scenario: A new renaissance in MMORPGs, just like what street fighter 4 and Marvel versus Capcom 3 did for fighting games. In that case, the sky is the limit. Maybe it becomes a ten bagger then, though I am not that optimistic.

Realistically, we won't know until perhaps 1.5 years after release. However, because the stock is priced so below its NCAV, there isn't too much risk in holding, other than paying ADR fees. It's also worth a hold to see how their Ragnarok DS and Ragnarok Odyssey for the Sony Vita end up doing, as they may end up being surprise sleepers. They are also starting to expand into the mobile phone and tablet market as well.

Conclusion: An upside of at least 100%, even in a worst case scenario, unless they get nuked by North Korea or something.

Though one concern that I have: It releases RO2, revenue doubles as expected and....nobody cares about the stock or the company so it doesn't go up, so it stays at a market cap of $32 million, even though they will make that much in net profit per year. Is that possible?

I got in at $1.20 ... so far so good.

Thanks for the write-up
VanceAce is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-19-2011, 10:18 AM   #55
ahnuld
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
ahnuld's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: buy side
Posts: 17,258
Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

yeah I would argue that due to the rising popularity of facebook and facebook gaming and smartphones the moat that the big gaming companies have is a lot weaker than it used to be.

But the big gaming companies are still who attract the best design talent (and getting the people who come up with the best games is still everything). So if zygna just gets added as one more company that happens to operate on a different platform it doesnt change things, but if companies like zygna start popping up overnight and then fading away again it does
ahnuld is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-19-2011, 06:46 PM   #56
FTPdelaysuck
grinder
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 607
Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

Quote:
Originally Posted by ahnuld View Post
yeah I would argue that due to the rising popularity of facebook and facebook gaming and smartphones the moat that the big gaming companies have is a lot weaker than it used to be.

But the big gaming companies are still who attract the best design talent (and getting the people who come up with the best games is still everything). So if zygna just gets added as one more company that happens to operate on a different platform it doesnt change things, but if companies like zygna start popping up overnight and then fading away again it does
really?? I don't think facebook or social gaming is a problem for gaming companies at all. The big gaming companies are becoming more and more dependent on their hits -- their business is becoming very much like movie studios. It becomes increasingly difficult to successfully develop smaller niche games.

Do a little research and see just how much of ATVI's profits are being driven by their top 5 games (COD and WoW in particular). Zynga or any other social gaming company are not going to impact these games. ATVI is increasingly trying to figure out ways to not only grow their audiences for their very best games , but also to squeeze additional profits out of these players. It's debatable if this is a good long term strategy for them.
FTPdelaysuck is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-19-2011, 08:30 PM   #57
t_roy
veteran
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: My PGC
Posts: 2,044
Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

yea social gaming is a totally new and separate market from the one that the major titles target.
t_roy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-23-2011, 01:41 PM   #58
Hielko
old hand
 
Hielko's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: alphavulture.com
Posts: 1,798
Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

I launched my blog today that is focussed on value investing, and the first write-up I have published is about ASFI. Let know what you think about the idea (and what you think about the blog), you can find it @ http://alphavulture.com/
Hielko is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-23-2011, 05:18 PM   #59
DOOM@ALL_CAPS
old hand
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 1,262
Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

I only think a few games have competitive advantages. But my statement before that specialist knowledge and big budgets are not competitive advantages is true. Specialists can be hired away and a lot of companies can access the capital required to launch a game. Also, just curious if anyone has done any research on the ROI of some games and if they could share that info here.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Hielko View Post
I launched my blog today that is focussed on value investing, and the first write-up I have published is about ASFI. Let know what you think about the idea (and what you think about the blog), you can find it @ http://alphavulture.com/
I wrote my thoughts earlier so obviously I agree.
DOOM@ALL_CAPS is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-23-2011, 09:32 PM   #60
Hielko
old hand
 
Hielko's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: alphavulture.com
Posts: 1,798
Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

Hey Doom@all_caps, didn't even notice that you posted a long case for ASFI in this thread. Think you are extremely conservative in your analysis, but don't think that's bad (your analysis seems to be out of date though, they did file two quarterly reports since the latest 10-K).
Hielko is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-24-2011, 02:39 AM   #61
Snowbiggie
newbie
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 28
Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

Help me answer a noobish question on GRVY and selling smallcap shares in general.

Yahoo finance puts avg daily volume at 45k/shares a day. With shares around 1.20, wouldn't this be hard to liquidate a decent position (5k+ shares) without bumping the price down? Or is this a position that takes weeks to liquidate?
Snowbiggie is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-24-2011, 03:01 AM   #62
Xaston
Pooh-Bah
 
Xaston's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: UYD Nation
Posts: 4,441
Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowbiggie View Post
Help me answer a noobish question on GRVY and selling smallcap shares in general.

Yahoo finance puts avg daily volume at 45k/shares a day. With shares around 1.20, wouldn't this be hard to liquidate a decent position (5k+ shares) without bumping the price down? Or is this a position that takes weeks to liquidate?
I don't thik you need to worry about that at 1/9th avg volume size position.
Xaston is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-24-2011, 01:18 PM   #63
Hielko
old hand
 
Hielko's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: alphavulture.com
Posts: 1,798
Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

It depends a bit if you want to pay the bid/ask spread or not, if you are willing to pay it it should be very easy to liquidate your position without influencing the price. If you enter a price between the bid/ask you might need some patience, but shouldn't a real problem.

And a little bit of promotion for my blog: just posted a write-up on Allan International Holdings @ http://alphavulture.com/2011/11/24/a...mited-0684-hk/

The company has a PE of just 2.6x if you adjust for the cash on the balance sheet, and while there are some risks, there is nothing that seems to warrant such a low valuation. The company seems to be growing and generates a healty profit. Biggest risk is imo that I'm missing something, so if someone has a good argument why the stock should be cheap I'm listening.
Hielko is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-24-2011, 02:08 PM   #64
tastychicken
old hand
 
tastychicken's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: tilting my roll away
Posts: 1,775
Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

gl heiko. i'll probably read up from time to time
tastychicken is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-25-2011, 11:13 AM   #65
Lucky LITE
old hand
 
Lucky LITE's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,383
Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

What is your long term opinion of MSFT?
Lucky LITE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-25-2011, 11:54 AM   #66
jb9
Pooh-Bah
 
jb9's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 4,151
Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

MSFT has been a long term holding of mine (bought 2004 and 2008) and it has not really been that great. However, in the last few years they've been raising the dividend a bit more (25% this year), which is an encouraging trend.

They have plenty of cash and cashflow and can afford to both invest in their business and return money to shareholders.

I don't expect to sell the holding anytime soon.
jb9 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-26-2011, 01:21 AM   #67
BrianTheMick
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,928
Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

Quote:
Originally Posted by jb9 View Post
MSFT has been a long term holding of mine (bought 2004 and 2008) and it has not really been that great. However, in the last few years they've been raising the dividend a bit more (25% this year), which is an encouraging trend.

They have plenty of cash and cashflow and can afford to both invest in their business and return money to shareholders.

I don't expect to sell the holding anytime soon.
I think MSFT is a good example of value investing. A reasonably cheap investment in a stable company that the market doesn't particularly like for some reason.

The only issue I see in the near-term is that Gates keeps putting his stake on the market (increasing float), but they are buying back more than he gives away. In the long-term, maybe people will move away from their Office line, but that seems about as probable as us starting to use Dvorak keyboards...
BrianTheMick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-26-2011, 09:35 AM   #68
Hielko
old hand
 
Hielko's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: alphavulture.com
Posts: 1,798
Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

I think MSFT is a pretty solid company to own at todays prices (I'm long). Don't think the cashflow generating abilities from Windows and Office are going to end anytime soon, but at the same time it's sometimes a bit questionable what gets done with that cash...
Hielko is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-26-2011, 01:33 PM   #69
DOOM@ALL_CAPS
old hand
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 1,262
Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

Interesting quote I stumbled on from Ben Graham that may apply today

“I think the future of equities will be roughly the same as their past; in particular, common-stock purchases will prove satisfactory when made at appropriate price levels. It may be objected that it is far too cursory and superficial a conclusion; that it fails to take into account the new factors and problems that have entered the economic picture in recent years — especially those of the movement toward less consumption and zero growth. Perhaps I should add to the my list the widespread public mistrust of Wall Street as a whole, engendered by its well-night scandalous behavior during recent years in the areas of ethics, financial practices of all sorts, and plain business sense.” — Benjamin Graham, June 1974 (source: Financial Analyst Journal of Sept./Oct. ’74, via Longleaf 3Q11 letter)
DOOM@ALL_CAPS is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-26-2011, 02:36 PM   #70
Boris
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: center of universe
Posts: 10,070
Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

Quote:
Originally Posted by DOOM@ALL_CAPS View Post
Interesting quote I stumbled on from Ben Graham that may apply today

“I think the future of equities will be roughly the same as their past; in particular, common-stock purchases will prove satisfactory when made at appropriate price levels. It may be objected that it is far too cursory and superficial a conclusion; that it fails to take into account the new factors and problems that have entered the economic picture in recent years — especially those of the movement toward less consumption and zero growth. Perhaps I should add to the my list the widespread public mistrust of Wall Street as a whole, engendered by its well-night scandalous behavior during recent years in the areas of ethics, financial practices of all sorts, and plain business sense.” — Benjamin Graham, June 1974 (source: Financial Analyst Journal of Sept./Oct. ’74, via Longleaf 3Q11 letter)
ha! the more things change the more they stay the same.
Boris is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-26-2011, 05:50 PM   #71
BrianTheMick
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,928
Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

Quote:
Originally Posted by DOOM@ALL_CAPS View Post
Interesting quote I stumbled on from Ben Graham that may apply today

“I think the future of equities will be roughly the same as their past; in particular, common-stock purchases will prove satisfactory when made at appropriate price levels. It may be objected that it is far too cursory and superficial a conclusion; that it fails to take into account the new factors and problems that have entered the economic picture in recent years — especially those of the movement toward less consumption and zero growth. Perhaps I should add to the my list the widespread public mistrust of Wall Street as a whole, engendered by its well-night scandalous behavior during recent years in the areas of ethics, financial practices of all sorts, and plain business sense.” — Benjamin Graham, June 1974 (source: Financial Analyst Journal of Sept./Oct. ’74, via Longleaf 3Q11 letter)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boris View Post
ha! the more things change the more they stay the same.
Note that he wrote this during a time in which the markets were getting slammed (almost a 50% drop in the S&P 500).
BrianTheMick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-26-2011, 06:13 PM   #72
deeshen13
centurion
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 174
Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

Your point being what exactly Brian?
deeshen13 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-26-2011, 08:33 PM   #73
Mrmusicrecorder
veteran
 
Mrmusicrecorder's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Downtown
Posts: 3,362
Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hielko View Post
I think MSFT is a pretty solid company to own at todays prices (I'm long). Don't think the cashflow generating abilities from Windows and Office are going to end anytime soon, but at the same time it's sometimes a bit questionable what gets done with that cash...
10 years over 13% CAGR earning per share growth, has done nothing in said time while offering what I would estimate paid less in dividend less than treasuries did when averaged over 10 years. In the 10 years they have cash and cash eqv. CAGR of around 5.5% while the market cap shrinks. I don't think they know what else to do aside from continuing to expand the business globally, which may or may not provide high margins. I have held MSFT before, but I can't think this is some great value outside of the fact that it is a. a consumer monopoly and b. floating above support at $24.

You need the next Microsoft oc, the value has been sucked out of this company imo.
Mrmusicrecorder is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-26-2011, 10:10 PM   #74
BrianTheMick
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,928
Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

Quote:
Originally Posted by deeshen13 View Post
Your point being what exactly Brian?
That he has been consistently right. Buying when the market is cheap should be a no brainer, despite the fact that people are generally incapable of doing so.

Blood in the streets, even (especially!) if it is your blood*, is a reason to buy. This is the heart and soul of longer term value investing.

Doesn't work for specific stocks (GMCR, NFLX, DMND, etc. etc.) though.

When to sell is more difficult.

*Keeping a few pints of blood on the side is probably key.
BrianTheMick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-27-2011, 08:28 AM   #75
Hielko
old hand
 
Hielko's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: alphavulture.com
Posts: 1,798
Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mrmusicrecorder View Post
10 years over 13% CAGR earning per share growth, has done nothing in said time while offering what I would estimate paid less in dividend less than treasuries did when averaged over 10 years. In the 10 years they have cash and cash eqv. CAGR of around 5.5% while the market cap shrinks. I don't think they know what else to do aside from continuing to expand the business globally, which may or may not provide high margins. I have held MSFT before, but I can't think this is some great value outside of the fact that it is a. a consumer monopoly and b. floating above support at $24.

You need the next Microsoft oc, the value has been sucked out of this company imo.
I think that's the wrong way to value a company. It's not relevant how good of a buy MSFT was 10 years ago. The fact that the company has been able to grow intrinsic value and increased the dividend yield while the share price hasn't done much is exactly the reason why today it might be good value.
Hielko is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:06 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Search Engine Optimisation provided by DragonByte SEO v2.0.33 (Pro) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2017 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2010, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online