potash mines are like 50 year lifespans. if someone decides to go cheap, its not like 5 years of underinvestment will clean up the excess supply. you could be looking at like 10+ years of bad prices if people decide to go for marketshare.

so according to you in 28 years coke will pay out 80 billion dollars a year in dividends. I will let you think about that and you can say if it seems feasible.

I need to post this because it's tilting me to the point where I have to share the absurdity with everyone else or I'm going to end up going mad.

I'm not sure if you guys can read this article: Facebook Flirts with $38 IPO Price

If not, the article is about how Facebook is slowly creeping back up to its original IPO price of $38 and people are starting to get back to even. This is how the article ends:

*Name taken out for privacy, but if you can read the article then it's no big deal.

Anyways, someone please agree with me how ridiculous that statement is, and why in the world would the WSJ even put that in there?

ahnuld,

lol obv not -- no need to be condescending tho.

out of interest, how much do you think they will pay out per year in dividends or per share in 28 years time?

+10,000. Without the cartels, someone will go for market share. Unless it was just a bluff, things could get very very ugly.

reading some more info on and and a certain lloyd i. miller III has bought about 9.4% of shares now. Hes some kind of corporate raider. seems like it could be pretty +ev to gamble on this now? Also anyone any idea what happens when the 15 million shares of grande holdings are sold in that liquidation thing? They just get thrown on the market? Or will they find some hedge fund to buy them. Seems like free money if some hedgefund, or someone like mr miller buys them. Except ofcourse if its gonna take another 3 years. But it seems like the main hold up was deutsche bank holding like 12.5% of grande's stock as collateral. Which they have given back this year.

Yeah, that guy looks like one hell of an activist shareholder for that and the other companies that he has bought into.

After looking more into this, I think you are right. When Grande's majority control goes away, then the activist shareholders will send this thing flying, or Grande's shares will be hopefully sold to a more shareholder friendly entity.

It's pretty much a matter of time at this point, but the question is how long will it take and how much value will be lost in the meantime. Plus they have some IRS and other litigation matters that they have to handle first, and it looks like the next quarterly report is going to suck because Walmart cut their microwave products. So who knows how long that will take; it could take months or years.

Guess I'll wait until the next quarterly report and hope it sinks on the bad news. Ideally I want to get in at around October when all the window dressing from the funds takes place, which could send this lower. Hopefully Grande won't be forced to liquidate it by then.

i wasnt trying to be condescending, was just trying to point out a real world check to make sure your numbers are right. in this case it doesnt work, doesnt make sense.

I dont know what coke will pay in 28 years. That time frame is forever. but its unlikely coke will grow much more than the GDP of the world + maybe 1-2% over that time.

As I said previously in this thread, you shouldnt use your time looking into megacaps like coke, check out small caps that doesnt have 25 analysts covering it, where it could be cheap and undiscovered.

yeah, its ******ed. I think the wsj included it to show the naivete of most facebook investors who purchased at the IPO.

This is a spat between the Russians and the Belarusians. It will blow over eventually. It doesn't make mathematical sense for the Russians long term even with lower production costs. On the other hand if they could bankrupt the Europeans that could be a nice outcome for them.

Eventually everyone goes back to cartels though. Just because the Saudi's have cheap oil doesn't mean they're going to blow up OPEC.

Why is it dumb? I mean he just wanted that quick thousand or two. Duhhhhh!!!!

what are the rules when a company is listed on nasdaq? When are they allowed to dilute the stock, whenever they feel like it? Also when a CEO has 60% of preferred stock, but only like 3% of common stock, can he get voted out?

thx in advance

Started a POT.TO position last night before the bell, just couldn't ignore the volume. I think we're going to see this ramp up for a while now. Haven't worked on a sell range yet, but plan on holding it for a while.

Anyone else buy in the low range?

Would be interested to have a further look at potash companies. Why choose POT in particular? I assume they have relatively low costs of production comparatively?... How does it compare to MOS?

Thoughts that Uralkali is just trying to push Belarusi around or punish them a bit for cheating on the cartel, and that the cartels might reform before too long?

Honestly I have CDN money I need to invest, so the choice made itself that way.
The volume ramp up has been on the rumor you speak of, but I decided to buy because of comments made by the BHP CEO:

http://business.financialpost.com/20...busted-cartel/

That said I'm going to be glued to the call on Aug 20. In the Potash world, that's going to be huge.

Closed out my position in DJCO after right at 2 years in it. Feels like the end of an era somehow. No idea why people were willing to get me out at ~150 over the last 2 weeks... But they were.

I owned MOS when Uralkali announced and I bought more at 42.34. I would DEFINITELY buy MOS over POT if only because it has a lot less exposure to potash and is selling for a similar valuation. Obviously I'm pretty stuck even with todays gains

EDIT: Also it's important to note that MOS is much more stable than POT financially. There are just a lot of solid reasons why MOS>POT imo.

Correct me if im wrong but I believe there are still buyout rumours around MOS as well.

You are correct. This is actually one of the very few occasions where I would have to agree with steelhouse and be annoyed that a stock I own was being bought out. (I intellectually know that this like every steelhouse position is wrong, but if they were bought out for like 48.xx a share and I barely broke even I'd be highly annoyed) It's definitely a reason to buy MOS over POT at these prices though.

so you guys buy MOS because you think they will win the price war and that the stock price is too depressed because of the price war with Uralkali?

And thoughts on Transcept Pharmaceuticals Inc? They have 80 million $ cash and no debt or liabilities. And are trading at 50 million. They are trying to get a insomnia drug on the market that is basicly a lighter dose of ambien, called intermezzo. Its for people who wake up with 4 or more hours of sleep to go for the night. It has been approved my the FDA, and they are paying purdue pharma to sell it to the medical community. Im hearing mixed signals about the drug, and ofcourse it is eating away at their cash. But if it gets approved then this stock is obviously worth way more. Anyone here with a better read on this? Thoughts on pill abuse sentiment in the US? It seems this drug is kind of stretching it in terms of how usefull it is. The Q2 call also didnt give me much.

bleh looking at it more closely it mostly seems that it failed to convince it actually treats some kind of disorder. And they are actually marketing it this year, and it seems to have failed so far. but might interesting to keep an eye on this stock i guess?

Pharma companies like that are either they are going to become multibaggers or they will plummet to zero, with no in-between scenario. Unless you have some way to handicap the two scenarios, I would stay away.

AGO's earnings conference calls always make me smile. It's like there's this aura of incredible competency coming from management, and all of the analysts undergo a religious experience from that aura.

to come back to the emerson thing. THey used to make quality products right? Reading up on amazon it seems management is cutting costs big time, and they get pretty bad reviews because they seem to break down very easily. I supose this wasnt always the case before they had crooks as management? What are the odds when the CEO is forced to sell his 56% share, that new management could make something out of it again. Since they probably still have brand recognition. SInce they exist for so long.

I supose they would have to reorganize, and that would probably take like a year. And the brand is already pretty damaged.
nice pieces by charlie munger:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/75389403/C...-Stock-Picking

I don't own coke. I am not supporting this guys thesis. Coke seems like it's too large to grow at the pace suggested. But 28 years is A LONG time. As long as there is no war, the population of the world maintains a similar trajectory, inflation continues at a similar rate, and other things going right.. this is not as far fetched as it may seem.

Case in point. In 1983 Coca Cola was a huge company with a 4-5 billion dollar market cap (very large company at the time). Now Coke pays about $5 billion dollars in dividends a year. In 1983 I doubt people would have believed that COKE would pay their entire market cap in dividends on an annual basis.

Just saying 28 years is a long time. A lot can happen. Again I would not buy Coke thinking in 28 years it will pay an $80 billion a year dividend -- it's just not as far fetched as you may think.

Also that would equal a 44% yield on cost, if they payed out 40 billion, that's still a 22% yoc