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Old 07-24-2012, 04:37 PM   #256
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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Bought more DWA today.
Wow. Why? It doesn't look particularly cheap.
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Old 07-24-2012, 05:52 PM   #257
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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Wow. Why? It doesn't look particularly cheap.
You can see some of my thoughts on it in post 168 in this thread. Since then though Madagascar 3 has done better than expected, they've announced their plans for a theme park in New Jersey, and they have another two TV shows coming out (in addition to Penguins of Madagascar, Kung Fu Panda Legends of Awesomeness, and the How to Train Your Dragon show that starts airing in fall).

I think they got a good deal on the Classic Media purchase.
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Old 07-24-2012, 06:19 PM   #258
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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This thread has been thought-provoking.

I have a question that may or may not be relevant:

I bought ACOM awhile ago on the theory that it was oversold but the market continues to undervalue the stock (IMO) despite repeated earnings beats and raised guidance. Is this a MF situation where if I wait it out, the market will come around? Or am I missing something fundamentally flawed about their business structure?
I just scanned through this thread. The vast majority of picks underperformed the S&P 500. ACOM is up almost 50% since you made this post -- trading at 31.85 at the moment.

Congrats! The market answered your question.
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Old 07-25-2012, 07:53 PM   #259
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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I guess I'll give an update on my portfolio:

I sold ASFI because of what I considered weak corporate governance and a lack of a catalyst. It is cheap on a quantitative measure, but I was worrying about the reinvestment opportunities and management.
What specifically made ou decide to sell ASFI?
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Old 07-25-2012, 09:11 PM   #260
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

Here is a chart I made today of the average foreign box office of DWA's movies. And the Madagascar 3 numbers don't include Portugal, Taiwan, Spain, Japan, Sweden, Denmark, Hong Kong, Finland, Norway, Poland, Slovenia, Italy, Greece, Australia, New Zealand, Germany, Ireland, and UK where it's not out yet. Not that the addition of those would really bump the average by more than I dunno 2 or 3.



I'm gonna do some more of these with other numbers, like domestic, combined, and library.
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Old 07-26-2012, 12:28 AM   #261
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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Bought more DWA today.
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Wow. Why? It doesn't look particularly cheap.
I agree that it doesn't look cheap. Didn't you say you wanted to wait for a 1.25billion market cap before adding?
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Old 07-26-2012, 01:19 AM   #262
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

Yea a while ago I said I would love to add more if it fell to there. Between the time I made that post and now though, I have raised a pretty significant amount of cash selling off some/all of a few of my positions (although I largely offset this with a terrible WSOP ) and DWA's made moves that I like.
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Old 07-26-2012, 09:09 AM   #263
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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What specifically made ou decide to sell ASFI?
I read the proxy and management's bonus isn't tied to any quantitative measure. It is a subjective process. Also, not really thrilled the CEO and Chairman are the same person. Also, didn't care for these related party transactions:

In connection with the Venture, A.L. Piccolo & Co., Inc., (“A.L. Piccolo”) which is owned by Louis Piccolo, a director of the Company, will receive a fee from Pegasus which is calculated at $350,000 per $10,000,000 loaned to Pegasus by Fund Pegasus, LLC, a newly-formed subsidiary of the Company, up to a maximum of $700,000, which fee is payable over eight years with payments being made in part from Pegasus’s operating expenses during the Term and thereafter by PLF and its affiliates. One of our subsidiaries is advancing to Pegasus funds to cover Pegasus’s operating expenses, which include payments to A.L. Piccolo. We expect these advances to be repaid by Pegasus after generating revenue from its litigation funding operations.

On December 12, 2011, the Company and A. L. Piccolo entered into a Consulting Agreement (the “Consulting Agreement”) pursuant to which Mr. Piccolo, through A.L. Piccolo, will provide consulting services to us over a two year period in connection with acquisitions, due diligence and other duties related thereto. In consideration for these services, we will compensate A. L. Piccolo as follows: (i) an annual fee of $150,000 per year; (ii) a bonus of $25,000 per consummated transaction (excluding currently pending transactions); (iii) an annual option to purchase 30,000 shares of the Company’s Common Stock, which vests in equal annual installments over a three-year period; and (iv) a bonus as determined by our chief executive officer in his sole discretion.


Also, I have no idea how their joint ventures will perform, could be good or bad. I'd rather invest in a better business that is cheap or invest in a situation with a specific catalyst.
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Old 08-05-2012, 06:29 AM   #264
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

Regarding longer term investing, is it ever a good idea to try to wait for a stock to drop below a target PEG ratio before buying?

For example if DWA had a PEG of 2.5 and you wanted to buy it below 2...
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Old 08-05-2012, 02:30 PM   #265
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

Sure.

If the flexibility and liquidity of the cash is more valuable to your portfolio than, for example, DWA which you have your eye on, until DWA's PEG falls below 2, then of course you're going to want to wait. It very well may be that for a whole position that that's true but perhaps at the current price your portfolio would be better off with 1/3rd of the theoretical DWA cash converted into DWA, even without the PEG hitting your goal.

If your positions are going to be large enough I think a good idea is to buy positions in pieces. Instead of just waiting for it to fall to an essentially arbitrarily lower price before buying a whole position you could buy 25% of one now and then increase it if/as the stock price gets cheaper.

Definitely nothing wrong though with just looking at something longingly but having the discipline to wait for it to get cheaper. Gotta have that discipline.
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Old 08-05-2012, 06:42 PM   #266
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

SVU, RSH, CECO, NOK, and DEXO are risky but worth it imho. Aluminum over gold.
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Old 08-06-2012, 02:22 PM   #267
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

City National Bank in Los Angeles?

"Although stung by losses on construction loans and commercial mortgages during the recent recession, City National avoided the subprime home loan and trading debacles that flattened larger rivals. In a burst of acquisitions, branch openings and new lending since 2008, assets have increased 50%, with profit growing from $51 million in 2009 to $172 million in 2011 and trending higher this year.

The stock is still down 27% from five years ago. But that beats a 33% decline in a national index of regional bank stocks, and investors so far seem content to let the family-controlled bank (the Goldsmiths' stake is nearly 15%) determine its own course."
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Old 08-07-2012, 10:04 AM   #268
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

MAKO is great at its current level in my opinion. With the rescent beat, and increase in procedures means, an increase in sales of disposable parts for the RIO, and the recent acquisition of one of ISRG's top sales guys makes me really like where they are headed.

Sales is all about who ya know, and this guy knows the right people.
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Old 08-07-2012, 11:08 AM   #269
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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SVU, RSH, CECO, NOK, and DEXO are risky but worth it imho. Aluminum over gold.
The title of this thread is with regard to investing, not speculating on what the future price of a metal will be.
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Old 08-07-2012, 03:49 PM   #270
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

Makes me sad to sell something that has done me so well and isn't at all a broken business but if ITIC climbs over $60 again I think I'm gonna have to sell off a bit more of my position. Earnings are pretty good but I bought it for the great balance sheet and discount to tangible book.

Last edited by Xaston; 08-07-2012 at 03:58 PM.
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