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Value Investing and Longer Term Investing Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

04-03-2012 , 11:24 AM
Do you know any ETF that buys small cap, low price/book stocks (following the French Fama Three Model's conclusions)? I have only found IJS (http://us.ishares.com/product_info/f...ch=true&qt=IJS) and IWN (http://us.ishares.com/product_info/f...erview/IWN.htm), but their price/book and P/E aren't really that low.
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04-03-2012 , 12:04 PM
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Originally Posted by buffett
Is your term "value weighted indices" synonymous with fundamentally-weighted indices? If so, what about PRF or PRFZ?
No, fundamentally-weighted indices simply weight holdings to reflect certain economic size based on certain heuristics. While this approach might have some advantages over the typical market-weighting, it does nothing to inform its sizing by means of absolute or relative value.
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04-19-2012 , 09:46 AM
Bought some more TSRA today. First thing I've bought in 2012. Got to be one of the easiest thing to (conservatively) value that I follow, maybe the easiest.

Last edited by Xaston; 04-19-2012 at 10:14 AM.
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04-22-2012 , 06:37 PM
Would anyone buy QUAD? Love the dividend, and long term should double. The CEO has been buying, also closing inefficient sites around the country from the acquisition of WCP.
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04-24-2012 , 10:35 AM
I'm flipping through Markel's 10-k. The company is a pretty good insurance underwriter that is often compared to Berkshire. Found it interesting that they have been purchasing controlling interests in some companies over the past few years. In 2010 and 2011, they gave total consideration of $197m for acquisitions and recorded income of $108m over the two years from the acquisitions.

Anyone have any thoughts on MKL?
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05-24-2012 , 01:56 PM
in case anyone cares -- just sold off laco. while it might have further room to run -- i'm happy to take my profits here. Morishi -- any thoughts on GRVY these days?

I wonder how RO2 is doing, when they're planning to launch worldwide (other asian countries), and whether or not they are burning through cash to promote the game. While I'm not bullish on RO2 -- the company is absurdly cheap once again -- and SHOULD offer limited downside (in theory).
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05-24-2012 , 04:26 PM
I'm still holding GRVY. The only reason I'm not buying more at the moment is because it's over 35% of my portfolio already and it's still above my dollar cost average.

Although it's still way too soon to tell how well RO2 is doing, the selloff is pretty stupid. So a company that's profitable each quarter, with 35 mill net cash, contractual obligations from other companies to pony up 43 mill in licensing fees for releasing RO2 in various countries, 100 mill in net assets....is worth 49 mil? Even if RO2 nets nothing beyond their licensing fees.....one year of revenue alone matches their market cap. That's pretty damn hilarious. This isn't even counting their other games, like Ragnarok Odyssey being ported to the US, or Finding Neverland being ported to China.

It takes roughly 3-4 months to translate, port and release to each country. As they indicated in previous quarterly reports, their big draws are really the Philippines and Japan, so hopefully everything will be translated and ported to those two countries (and maybe the US) by the end of the year. We really won't know until they give us more news, which won't be forthcoming until at least the next quarterly report and more ideally the next yearly report. For me, December is still the earliest time where I would even consider selling. To me, any variance in the stock price before then is just noise.

Although if it falls below my dollar cost average of 1.56, I dunno.....I may liquidate something to buy more.
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05-24-2012 , 06:30 PM
Thinking of making a bridge jumper bet on SNDK. Thoughts?
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05-24-2012 , 07:41 PM
Recently bought some Alcoa for a medium to long term holding. I got in at 8.70 so definitely did not get the bottom.
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05-25-2012 , 08:51 PM
I think I'm gonna sell my DELL. They are getting a bit too acquisitive for my tastes.
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05-26-2012 , 11:58 AM
Is there an Online Broker where I could cash in with Neteller or Moneybookers? Would come really good.
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05-26-2012 , 07:42 PM
Nisash, there is betonmarkets.com which is a fixed betting site. They take both neteller and moneybookers. Not exactly a broker but it's a useful tool to profit off forex market and couple of the big indexes.
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05-26-2012 , 09:36 PM
SNDK nice value at this level
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05-26-2012 , 09:39 PM
Jabil, symbol JBL is a nice value under $20. OK dividend 1.7%
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05-26-2012 , 09:48 PM
TSRA not sure how valueing a company with little earnings is easy
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05-27-2012 , 12:54 AM
This thread has been thought-provoking.

I have a question that may or may not be relevant:

I bought ACOM awhile ago on the theory that it was oversold but the market continues to undervalue the stock (IMO) despite repeated earnings beats and raised guidance. Is this a MF situation where if I wait it out, the market will come around? Or am I missing something fundamentally flawed about their business structure?
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06-17-2012 , 05:50 PM
Hi I was just wondering if anyone could help me. I am trying to learn how to evaluate company's. I always hear people saying valuations look attractive but would enjoy learning how to calculate this. Any help/links/books would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks
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06-17-2012 , 06:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dishwasher22
Hi I was just wondering if anyone could help me. I am trying to learn how to evaluate company's. I always hear people saying valuations look attractive but would enjoy learning how to calculate this. Any help/links/books would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks
Research "Financial Modeling"...you essentially develop models by "Discounting Cash Flows" (DCF), Multiple Analysis, and sometimes asset based valuation.
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06-17-2012 , 06:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Onetwobit
Research "Financial Modeling"...you essentially develop models by "Discounting Cash Flows" (DCF), Multiple Analysis, and sometimes asset based valuation.
Is this stuff really complicated or would it be beneficial for me to begin learning for the future and to improve my own investing? I have been managing my own money for a year or so (not that much money but good practice imo ) and would like to do this stuff in the future (as i am in college atm).
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06-17-2012 , 07:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dishwasher22
Hi I was just wondering if anyone could help me. I am trying to learn how to evaluate company's. I always hear people saying valuations look attractive but would enjoy learning how to calculate this. Any help/links/books would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks
http://www.oldschoolvalue.com/blog/v...in-any-market/
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06-17-2012 , 11:26 PM
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Originally Posted by BrianTheMick
It is true. Try running a backtest over multiple time periods using good data. No fair just looking at recent data. No fair just looking at data that doesn't include companies that have gone busto.

p/b worked a few decades ago in relative performance.

p/e never worked (except for short periods) in relative performance.

Dividend yield worked for decades at a time and didn't work for decades at a time. Has done wonders recently in relative performance.

Price to sales was super awesome a while back in relative performance.
I little late but Jeremy Siegel did a backtest of sp500 stocks from 1957 to December 2006. Those in the lowest 20% in p/e ratio outperformed the market by 3.2%. 2nd lowest 2.4%. Graham said if you continually buy stocks with p/e greater than 16 you will lose money.
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06-17-2012 , 11:29 PM
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Originally Posted by Xaston
thanks this looks great. will check it out once i get more time
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06-18-2012 , 12:44 PM
Are there any apple owners who are concerned that insiders have sold 50% of their stock in the last 6 months?
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06-20-2012 , 09:47 AM
I guess I'll give an update on my portfolio:

I sold ASFI because of what I considered weak corporate governance and a lack of a catalyst. It is cheap on a quantitative measure, but I was worrying about the reinvestment opportunities and management.

Currently holding: HII, NICK, JPM, BAC, GLRE, MKL
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06-21-2012 , 05:05 PM
CSCO calls seem very reasonably price when compared to call options of other stocks that would be considered attractive to value investors. I compared Jan. '13 calls for 30 stocks from Greenblatt's stock screen, min market cap of $2b. I compared the strike price that was greater than today's closing price and closest to today's closing price. CSCO was the cheapest by far when dividing the option price by the closing price. I know my awesome method doesn't take beta in to account but all that Black-scholes is BS anyways.
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