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Originally Posted by JoshK
I'm new to following this thread and value investing.
When a stock is up ~35% since posted/purchased instead of considering it a long-term value play do you just complete the trade and take the win even though it was originally positioned as a longer term investment?
Does it more come down to needing an exit strategy or target before even investing in the first place?
There may be differing opinions, but value investing mainly comes down to "value."
There could be investments like LAKE that went from $8 to $30 during the Ebola scare -- I don't remember the exact numbers. If you held on to the company when the stock price barely moved for years and suddenly saw it at $30, it would probably be a good idea to sell it and take the profits off of a huge move like that. That's a decision you have to make.
If you own a company like BRK that has a steady climb over many years, it might be worth holding since their value generally goes up every year.
If you have an idea of the real value of a business and can buy it for much less than that, then you sell when something value related changes, or you sell it when it becomes overvalued. Nobody knows the true value of a business. Discounted Cash Flow models get thrown around, but nobody really knows.
If a company makes $1 billion every year and their market cap is $1,000, you can eyeball that and see it's under valued.
If a company makes $100 every year and their market cap is $1 billion, you can eyeball that and see it's overvalued.
A company I've owned for 4 years recently announced they were going to issue more shares. The last time they did that, the stock went down 50%. I still like the company, but I told myself if they ever issued more stock, I was going to sell. So I did. I made 180% on that investment.
So, long story short, value investing to me is about whether a company is undervalued or overvalued and the economics of the business. You're buying real businesses, not just looking at numbers and share prices.